https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2008/07/19/obama-and-the-swan/feed/PJ Media is a leading news site covering culture, politics, faith, homeland security, and more. Our reporters and columnists provide original, in-depth analysis from a variety of perspectives.en-usFri, 19 Jun 2026 04:11:17 -0400<![CDATA[It&#8217;s interesting to think about Barack Obama&#8217;s trip to South Asia and the Middle East after watching Philip Tetlock&#8217;s wonderful January 2007 video on the efficacy of forecasting. Tetlock asked himself why pundits never lost their reputations by making bad predictions. Jonathan Schell, in his famous book the Fate of the Earth predicted Ronald Reagan&#8217;s policies would increase the probability of a nuclear war. At that time most analysts in the CIA were predicting that the Soviet Union would last forever. Neither came true. Yet Johnathan Schell is still selling books and one of the analysts who felt confident the USSR would last a long time is now Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates. Tetlock came to the conclusion that political punditry was so unaccountable because no one was keeping score.]]>Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:00:55 -0400<![CDATA[Richard Fernandez]]>https://pjmedia.com/richard-fernandez/2008/07/19/obama-and-the-swan-n185770