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The Desert of Mirrors: Who’s Really Who in the Middle East?

February 2nd, 2014 - 10:30 am

It’s the Middle Eastern version of the old Abbott and Costello routine “Who’s On First?”  Just when we thought we had at least most of the killers in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq sorted out, things suddenly became baffling.  Incomprehensible, even.  Some days you can’t tell the players even WITH a scorecard.

In Syria, some three years ago, a bunch of non-fanatics defected from Assad’s regular army, and started fighting against his regime.  There were more defections, and the opposition grew stronger, despite the regime’s violent counter-attacks.  It began to look like Assad might fall.  Then his two big allies, Russia and Iran, shipped in weapons and fighters and the tide turned.  It began to look like the opposition might be wiped out.  Then various Islamist fanatics–including two or three that could reliably be called “al-Qaeda”–rallied to the opposition cause, and did well enough for the conventional wisdom to embrace the thought that nobody was strong enough to win.  Then the various opposition groups started killing one another, tilting the battlefield back in Assad’s (and Iran’s, and Russia’s) favor.

I’m not going to make you memorize the names of all the groups.  I just want you to focus for a moment on the Abbott and Costello theme:  whose side is al-Qaeda on?  At first it seemed pretty clear:  al-Qaeda was fighting alongside the opposition, against Assad, which is to say, against Iran and Russia.  The AQ leaders often said so, in just those words.  But now comes word that the al-Qaeda forces are getting at least some support from Iran.  That word comes from the U.S. Treasury and State Departments and other good sources, by way of Tom Joscelyn, my friend and colleague at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and he’s as good as it gets.

The key AQ leader in this baffling story is Yasin al-Suri, who was branded as a senior AQ operative in Iran (where he’d been active since 2005, which suggests he gets on well with the mullahs) by the Treasury in 2011.  Treasury offered a $10 million reward for help capturing al-Suri, and the Iranians arrested him.  But that was then.  Now he’s out of jail, and hard at work:

“As head al Qaeda facilitator in Iran, al Suri is responsible for overseeing al Qaeda efforts to transfer experienced operatives and leaders from Pakistan to Syria, organizing and maintaining routes by which new recruits can travel to Syria via Turkey and assisting in the movement of al Qaeda external operatives to the West,” an unnamed State Department official told Al Jazeera.

An official at Treasury confirmed the claim.  The U.S. government officials are not the only ones talking about collusion between Iran/Assad and the opposition.  Michel Kilo, an opposition leader whose anti-Assad credentials are very credible, goes so far as to claim that the Islamist groups were actually organized and directed from Damascus.

“There are photos that have been found of several emirs of ISIS with [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad,” said Kilo, who spoke with Al-Monitor on the sidelines of the Geneva II talks.

“The pictures were taken before they became emirs in ISIS (a leading Islamist anti-Assad group), when they were all officers in the Syrian special service. There are documents sent by the special service to ISIS telling them to capture or kidnap people in Raqqa and Jarabalus, and these documents will be published. And you will see how the regime fabricated these extremist groups that did not exist in our country at the beginning of the revolution.”

So one group of Islamist killers has its leader in Tehran, and another has long-standing connections between its leaders and Damascus.  Yet there is no doubt that both groups are fighting.  They’ve been effective.  They’ve certainly killed Syrians, and almost certainly they’ve killed Iranians too.  Nowadays they are also killing other opposition fighters in other groups.  Just today, for example, the leader of one of the Islamist groups was killed by a car bomb set by another Islamist group.

Is there any way to make sense of this, or should we just say that it’s a classic Hobbesian conflict, “the war of every man against every man”?  It could very well be just that.  But maybe not.

I don’t know the answer (although I think that the keys to unlocking the mystery are probably in the Iranian and/or Russian archives), but it reminds me of one of the greatest of all grand deceptions, the Soviet-created “Trust” just after the Revolution.  That was organized by the Soviet intelligence service, which created a phony opposition movement whose “leaders” contacted Western governments with offers to topple the Bolshevik regime.  The “Trust” leaders provided the Western strategists with secret documents, and even assassinated Soviet officials in order to establish the bona fides of the Trust.  The West bought the deception, and funded the Trust, giving the Soviets money, knowledge of Western plans, and the ability to manipulate Western anti-Soviet operations.  The Trust’s most celebrated victim was the British official “Reilly Ace of Spies,” who was lured to a meeting, arrested, tortured, and executed.

Stratagems of this sort are not all that unusual, and it would not surprise me to learn that Iran sponsored al-Qaeda groups in Syria and Iraq, posing (and indeed often acting) as anti-Assad or anti-Maliki forces, in order to penetrate the opposition, manipulate its actions, and foment fighting among the various groups, all to the ultimate advantage of Khamenei/Maliki/Assad.

As Tom Joscelyn, scratching his talented mind, remarks,

The Iranian regime…has mastered duplicity and may have unknown reasons for keeping tabs on al Qaeda’s operations. Al Qaeda has also been willing to work with Iran on multiple occasions since the early 1990s, despite the two sides’ fundamentally different theologies and sometime vehement disagreements.

Iranian policy rarely moves in straight lines;  it’s more like gyres and spirals.  They’re very flexible, to put it mildly.  Remember that before 9/11 the Iranians were prime targets of Taliban killers.  Today Iran trains Taliban killers in both Pakistan and Iran itself.  So flexibility concerning al-Qaeda shouldn’t surprise anyone.

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There are none so blind as those who will not see, and hardly anyone wants to see Iran for what it is:  an evil regime bound and determined to dominate and destroy us, our friends and our allies.  The evidence is luminously clear, but most all of our attention has focused, as usual, on the nuclear issue.  Did the Iranians promise to stop enriching uranium or “dismantle” some of the components of their nuclear program?  How many Western sanctions are being eased or lifted in exchange? And on and on…

We don’t know the answers to these questions, as the text of the agreement is secret.  However, we do know that the Iranians now have six months — the sort of deadline that often slides — to reach a “final” agreement with the 5 + 1 countries.

We can expect the Iranians to prolong and exploit this period to their advantage and our peril.  They’ve already begun. The Iranian regime is expanding its regional and global power, killing its domestic enemies, and subverting and intimidating Middle Eastern nations that are reluctant to bend to its will.  These matters require serious Western attention, but they aren’t getting much.  For us, it’s all about nukes and sanctions.

Just take a few of their major actions:

● A few days ago, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the head of the Basij– a highly ideological militia under the umbrella of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps — publicly announced that Iran had created Basij units in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and “Palestine.”  This means that the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism has put paramilitary forces on Israel’s borders.

● In a closely related matter, Iran has taken a giant step toward establishing control over Lebanon.  A week ago, Saad Hariri, a key Sunni leader long opposed to Iranian influence and a declared enemy of Iran’s close ally Bashar Assad, said he is willing to form a government with Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy.  Hariri made this grim announcement in the Hague, where he was attending the trial of four Hezbollahis accused of murdering his father in 2005.  It came soon after the Beirut assassination of his close advisor, Mohamad Chatah, during the Christmas holidays.  The murder was widely blamed on Hezbollah.

● In Syria, where Iran is effectively in command of the pro-Assad forces, the slaughter of opposition forces and innocent civilians continues unabated.  Now that chemical weapons have been banned (although the opposition continues to claim they are still being used), more conventional weapons of mass destruction — like the “barrel bombs” — are being dropped on opposition centers in and around Aleppo, and elsewhere regime enemies are being starved to death.

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Gates and the Duty Dilemma

January 21st, 2014 - 1:01 pm

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You’re Bob Gates, the secretary of Defense for George W. Bush and then Barack Obama. During the Obama years, you attend high-level discussions at which you hear the nation’s leaders say some things that shock you, things that show the national interest is disregarded, as never before in your long experience, in favor of personal, political interest by the secretary of state and the president. Even things that threaten our soldiers’ lives and limbs.

In the last year of your tenure, the president reneges on promises he made to you regarding his support for your budget, thereby depriving the troops of weapons and of support for the wounded. And he speeds up the withdrawal from Afghanistan over your violent objections, breaking another commitment.

You’ve been around government all your life. You know that politics often trumps policy. Indeed, you were once humiliated and rejected as a nominee to head the CIA after you were accused of “politicizing intelligence.” But some of the things you hear disturb you more than anything you’ve heard in the past. Hillary and Obama say they supported the Iraqi surge for purely political reasons. And Obama “gives orders,” rather than just making decisions; he doesn’t understand how civilian control of the military works.

The president’s national security staff — at a record 350 slots (seven times the number under the elder Bush) — constantly meddles and tries to micromanage the two wars in which we’re engaged. At one point you have to tell the national security advisor that he’s not in the chain of command and that you will take your instructions from the president alone.

On the other hand, for all his faults, Obama’s actual policy decisions are generally what you want, and when there are disagreements, you sometimes come around to his judgment. He approves an Afghan surge — the very idea of which had not occurred to you (it came from General McChrystal’s analysis, which greatly surprised you but ultimately convinced you) — even though it rated to be politically unpopular, both with the Democrat base and with his own people inside the White House. To be sure, he announced there would be a full withdrawal of fighters in relatively short order, but that didn’t upset you. You later got angry when Obama lied to you about the withdrawal date, but you never thought anything great could be accomplished in Afghanistan anyway. You thought the best we could get was a fairly well-trained Afghan army, facing a Taliban-plus that we’d weakened. And maybe we could support some decent local governments.

And he did the bin Laden raid, which you initially opposed (you favored a drone strike) but then approved and admired.

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Exclusive: The Voice of Iranian Dissent

January 15th, 2014 - 6:19 pm

I’ve received what follows from Iran, via Banafsheh Zand, who has written at PJ Media on several occasions.  As you will see, it’s an open letter from one of the bravest men of our time, Heshmat Tabarzadi, a fighter for the freedom of the Iranian people who has repeatedly put his life on the line in that worthy cause.  Heshmat was one of the central figures in the Iranian student movement, and then joined the Green Movement that was cheated out of its electoral victory in 2009.  Along with other Green leaders, Heshmat was subsequently arrested, convicted by a “Revolutionary Tribunal,” and locked away.

As he writes, he was recently paroled halfway through his 8-year sentence.  I rather suspect that the regime hoped he would take the opportunity to flee the country, but he won’t do that.  Like the Green leaders Mousavi, Rahnavard and Karroubi, Heshmat is one of the most respected figures in contemporary Iran, and, so far at least, the regime prefers to keep them locked away rather than killing them, probably hoping they will die in prison.

Today, January 15th, they arrested him again and he is incarcerated.  It behooves any one who really cares about human rights to keep his name in front of the civilized world, to condemn his imprisonment, and to call for his release so that he can publicly and freely promote his cause, in which the civilized world purports to believe.

Moreover, like many prisoners of conscience before him, Heshmat reminds us that no reliable partnership can be forged with a regime that treats its citizens in such an appalling way, that treats a woman as worth half a man, and that has actually increased the tempo of executions since the elections of June, 2012, that brought the so-called “moderate” Hassan Rouhani to the presidency.

Read it all.  Carefully.  His is an important voice.  Would that our leaders paid careful attention to him and his brave words and actions.

Here is the text of his letter:

The major world powers namely 5+1 are trying hard to engage the government of Iran to join the rest of the international community, by taking advantage of the recent “Flexibilities” that have been shown by the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, and as implemented by President Hassan Rouhani.

Indeed, we have arrived at a significant and historic juncture. However, without a cautious and comprehensive effort moving forward, the road ahead towards a mutually beneficial and peaceful outcome will remain uncertain and elusive. Ever since the election of President Rouhani, the number of executions in Iran has nevertheless increased substantially (nearly 400 executions since he took office). Keeping in mind that Iran already held the second highest record of executions after China (1st in the world as a percentage of the population), this represents an urgent human rights crisis.

In addition, the Iranian government has hundreds of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience, including those such as Mr. Mir Hussein Mousavi, Mrs. Zahra Rahnavard and Mr. Mehdi Karroubi, who have been under house arrest since 2010, without any legal or court proceedings. The majority of Iranian political prisoners are sentenced solely due to the exercise of their rights to express their opinion or for peaceful assembly.

The legitimacy of any ruling power is measured by its practice of observing and respecting the rights of its own people. In what follows, I briefly give an account of my personal experience living in Iran, which is not an isolated case. Hundreds of fellow Iranian political activists are experiencing a similar situation. Indeed, the lack of basic human rights and freedom in Iran reflects poorly on the prospect for the effective and peaceful resolution of the issues of the Iranian government with the international community. One cannot be addressed in the absence of the other.

My name is Heshmat Tabarzadi. I am an Iranian secular democrat human rights activist. I have been arrested several times on charges related to my activities, most recently after the green movement and the disputed election results of 2009. In October 2010, I was sentenced to eight years in prison, convicted of five charges of “insulting the Leader,” “insulting the President,” “propaganda against the system,” “gathering and colluding with intent to harm the state security,” and “disturbing public order.” I had already spent seven years of my life in prison, nearly three years of it in solitary confinement for my activities as a student leader. Additionally I have spent another 4 years of my latest verdict and still have four more years remaining. I have spent part of every year of my life in prison since 1999 and while imprisoned I have been tortured on several different occasions. Meanwhile my different publications have been shut down, I have been denied the right to peaceful participation in two secular democratic and human rights organizations, and I have been prohibited from any social activities for 10 years.

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The Meaning of Fallujah

January 8th, 2014 - 7:54 pm

Al-Qaeda is back in Fallujah and Ramadi, where we defeated them in the recent past. Everyone in the Middle East knew it, and they all knew al-Qaeda was on the ropes.  Recruitment was more difficult, fund-raising likewise, and the cult of bin Laden was decidedly wobbly.

That’s what happens when a messianic mass movement — like Islamism — loses.  People start asking all sorts of annoying questions.  If your past victories were due to Allah’s support, a demonstration of His recognition that you were the sole practitioners of the right sort of Islam, what are we to make of your defeat?  Has Allah abandoned you?  Has he joined the Marines?

In the ebb and flow of the global war in which we are so reluctantly engaged, that was a moment to be seized.  Instead, our new leaders judged it was the perfect time to walk away.  They have been walking away ever since.  And they had plenty of support, from deep within American tradition, from that oft-fatal conviction that peace is normal and war is an aberration, when the opposite defines human history.  So we walked away, abandoning those who had staked their future to America’s commitment to freedom, and giving hope and time to our enemies, who regrouped and attacked again.  Thus, Iraq, where the slaughter often exceeds the death toll in Syria.  Thus, Syria itself.  And Lebanon.

Al-Qaeda, and others like them, can now say, “You see, Allah is indeed with us.  We are stronger than ever.  Much stronger.  We used to have bands of terrorists, but today we have armies.  The Americans have run away from Iraq, where our flag now flies, and they are running away from Afghanistan, where the Taliban are preparing to impose God’s will.  The future is clear.  We will win.  Join us, or perish.”

That is the meaning of Fallujah.  And everyone in the Middle East knows it.  These Americans can win some battles, but they do not have the stomach to win the war.

It’s serious enough to make the deep thinkers at the White House ponder reengaging in Iraq, somehow.  As the Wall Street Journal reported,

The rise of the Islamist forces in Iraq is particularly worrisome to the Obama administration. In response, U.S. officials said Sunday they were seeking to boost military support — though they emphasized no troops — for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to help in his campaign to push back al-Qaeda. U.S. officials are also considering new military aid for Lebanon, which is plagued by rising sectarian violence.

Easier said than done, however.  It’s one thing to support Maliki when we’ve got troops on the ground, and can effectively defend him against al-Qaeda, and against Iran.  It’s quite another matter when we’re just offering weapons, drones and bombs from a distance.  Maliki certainly can’t defend Iraq against Iran, whatever his wishes, and indeed any assistance we give him may well end up in Tehran. Do we really want to deliver hellfire missiles to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by way of Baghdad?  Congress seems reluctant, and rightly so.  On the other hand, if Iraq can’t get help from us, they’ll take it from Tehran, which has happily offered to fight al-Qaeda.

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2014: The World Without America. Or Is It?

January 1st, 2014 - 4:37 pm

At the end of last year, President Obama was in Hawaii. French President Hollande was in Saudi Arabia, whose leaders openly declare their contempt for American leaders. Obama is basically having fun. Hollande and the royal family are basically doing strategy. They are designing actions to advance their interests in the new world;  not, as is often said, a world without America, but a world in which American leaders have turned against America.

Which is not an easy task.

Those of us who lived abroad during the Cold War were given a window that was closed to our fellow citizens back home: if our eyes and ears and, above all, our noses were sufficiently sensitive, we could understand the importance of America, which defined the world for quite a while. Most of my years abroad were in Italy, and I was constantly amazed by Italians’ assumption that, over in Washington and New York, as in Hollywood and Detroit, “the Americans” were following Italian affairs in great detail.  One day an important national leader asked me, “What do they think in Washington about Aldo Moro’s editorial in today’s Corriere della Sera?  I didn’t have the heart to tell him that maybe three people in Washington might have read it, or that fewer than a dozen had ever heard of Aldo Moro.

The point being that all over the world, the people who mattered always had an eye on America, assumed that America was watching them and had plans for them, and thought that at the end of the day America was likely to be decisive in their future.

These convictions, most of which were fantasies, became even stronger when the Soviet Empire imploded, in the Bush-Clinton-Bush era when America was the lone superpower. One way or another, the world had to come to terms with the United States, because there was no effective counterforce, and, aside from a few fanatics, no one could imagine a fundamental change. Who could challenge American power?  Our enemies had to be very careful, our friends felt very comfortable, and the events of those years–our intervention in the Balkans, our smashing of Saddam when he ventured into Kuwait–removed any delusions of grandeur by would-be uppity nations.

American hegemony wasn’t limited to military power, but encompassed the most basic components of the modern world, from Internet and its attendant gadgets and technologies (Microsoft, Apple, Google…) to movies, scholarship and literature. America was omnipresent and omnipotent. When the fanatics attacked us on 9/11, we destroyed the Taliban in Afghanistan in record time, and countries with some military capacity begged to join us.

Omnipresent and omnipotent.  As al-Qaeda scrambled to find safe havens, we prepared to invade Iraq, and the invasion was a further demonstration of American might.  To be sure, there were problems. Big problems, even.  But at the end of the day, al-Qaeda was smashed in Iraq, tyrants like Qadaffi scrambled to appease us, and our key allies, from NATO to Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, felt mighty secure. And Saddam was gone.

And then, poof! We opted out. Because we’re like that. Nothing new.  It’s not “war weariness”; it’s the way we are. But also because Obama, which is something very new, and even harder to understand.

Actually, we never wanted in. Just think at how Bush the Elder scolded us, lest we even thought about celebrating the fall of the Soviet Empire.  Americans’ typical view of “normal” is a world at peace, where we all try to get along, because, you know, we’re all basically the same, and we’re all basically good.  People like that don’t have an imperial vocation.  Without 9/11, Bush the Younger wouldn’t have spent much time on foreign policy.  He’d have devoted most of his energies to being compassionate.

Most of the rest of the world doesn’t think that way.  Most of the rest of the world agrees with Machiavelli’s first principle: “Man is more inclined to do evil than to do good.”  Which is why most of the rest of the world is either at war, or preparing for war, and it is very hard for them to believe that we really do want to opt out.  We’ve been so engaged and so powerful for so long, that they can’t imagine that we have really turned tail.  Most of the French still believe we read Le Monde every day, and most Saudis probably still believe that our CIA station in the kingdom is there to tell them what to do.

Never mind that Obama and his buddies told everyone they wanted out.  Never mind that our abandonment of Israel was clear before the end of Obama’s first year in office.  Nobody out there in the real world could believe it.  They assumed that we were being cleverly deceptive, that any pullback would be temporary, and that we would remain committed to our long-standing basic principles.  Democratic, pro-Western allies would be treated like the friends they wish to be, and tyrannical, anti-American enemies would be recognized as such.  Ergo, the mission for the French and the Saudis, and all the others, was to remain engaged with us, to keep reminding us of our common imperatives, and to help us “understand” our common menaces.

Why?  So that we’d act when it became necessary, and they would have a voice in our actions.  We’d help Europe withstand an aggressive Russia, we’d help our Middle Eastern friends resist Iran, we’d help the Africans resist jihad, and we’d support Latin American democrats.

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Saint Nelson

December 6th, 2013 - 9:15 am

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Inevitably, Americans look at Africa through the lens of race, but that’s a mistake. Africa is about tribes, and one of the many things that made apartheid such a hateful system is that it was a European imposition, it was alien to the culture of the sub-Saharan continent, because it was all about race.

The importance of Nelson Mandela is both obscured and enhanced by this racial overlay.  South Africa was anomalous because it was fundamentally about race, while the internal conflicts elsewhere in Africa–as in Namibia, Angola, and Mozambique–were basically tribal wars.  But Mandela’s charisma, his ability to lead, the respect he commanded within the country derived in large part from the fact that he was a prince of the Qosa tribe, the largest and most important in the country.

To see that Mandela was bred and raised to be a leader, all you had to do was watch him walk, or even stand.  Such elegant posture, such grace as he moved, such elegance of gesture, and such command of whatever language he was speaking…he was nobility.  And not just in public;  to sit and talk with him was a singular pleasure.  Like all great leaders, he listened attentively, and chose his words carefully.  He commanded respect in all settings.

Yet despite his powerful charisma, he was also a humble man.  In all his actions–as the prisoner who earned the respect and admiration of his jailers, the president who embraced all his people, and a loyal fan who wore the national rugby shirt as South Africa won the World Championship–it was never about him.  It was always about the country, about the people, and about the importance of both strength and toleration.

One does not often find such qualities in a world-historical figure.  Only such a man could have led South Africa to national unity at that time, when so many were confidently predicting a racial bloodbath.  His example set the tone and inspired the nation.

Help, Heeeelp! The Amphipods Are Here…

December 4th, 2013 - 3:49 pm

Nothing much happens in Chevy Chase, Maryland, where we have lived for nearly thirty years.  Nothing except rising taxes and falling services, that is (e.g., they used to collect the garbage twice a week, now only once).  But there are plenty of schemes, including one for a light rail line from here to New Carrollton, where there’s an Amtrak station.  That scheme is now at risk because, as currently designed, it might threaten the habitat of the very rare, indeed unique, Hay’s Spring amphipod, a small fresh-water shrimp that lives in the streams that feed Rock Creek, which appropriately runs through Rock Creek Park, which is just a block away from Villa Ledeen.

Those little shrimp are protected by the Feds.  They only exist here, down the block, and of course they’re endangered, so the grand scheme to let us take a little train to New Carrollton and then a big train to Baltimore, Wilmington, Philly, Newark, or New York will now pause while they try to make sure the construction doesn’t create dirty water that might threaten the amphipods.

You might think this is just a routine event, of the sort that happens every day somewhere in This Great Land.  But I take it personally.  First, because train, highway and subway schemes have been delayed most everywhere I lived in the last forty-fifty years, and second because fresh-water shrimp played a tragicomic role in one of my African sorties, and left, let us say, a lasting impression.

Have you ever seen Fellini’s Roma?  It’s a stream-of-consciousness film about the city, and one of my favorite scenes has to do with the construction of the subway system.  In the sixties, seventies and eighties, the project was forever interrupted because you couldn’t dig very far without encountering priceless ancient ruins, and the ministries in charge of protecting the old treasures from modern depredation stepped in, and examined the new finds.  Each examination took years, of course, and one of the common one-liners in those years was that while the system was supposed to be ready for the Jubilee (a Catholic festival every fifty years), nobody stipulated which Jubilee.  Fellini takes us down the subway shaft and into his fantasy of an ancient world…well, you really have to see it to appreciate how much fun it is.

In 1973, I spent several days each month in Israel, coaching the Israeli national bridge team.  The bridge players mostly lived in and around Tel Aviv, so that’s where I was hoteled, but whenever I could, I went to Jerusalem to see what was going on.  And one of those things was digging.  Digging to build new roads, digging to explore areas of the Old City and environs, digging digging digging…and it was just like Rome.  With predictable frequency, the diggers found ancient ruins, and the ministers stopped work to explore.  So, as in Rome, you ended up walking a lot, and the archeologists became integral parts of the public works programs.

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Some pundits love to carry on about the presumed brilliance of the Persians, reminding us that they invented chess, that they’re fabulous negotiators and strategists, and masters of deception.  Others love to carry on about the presumed brilliance of President Obama, who plays basketball, not chess, but is still, as the historian Michael Beschloss once said, the smartest president in American history.

I don’t doubt the Persians and our president have high IQs, but I know from personal experience that the rulers of Iran are at least a bit crazy (I met with some of them when I was the “secret back channel” to Iran during the Reagan administration), and they have certainly wrecked their country.  Obama’s results haven’t been particularly epic either.

Braininess doesn’t automatically translate into good policy or even to a clear understanding of what’s going on. Several thoughtful analysts have concluded — correctly, as I see it — that recent Middle Eastern deals are, at a minimum, giant steps toward a working alliance between the United States and Iran. It’s pretty clear that Obama believes he is on the verge of fulfilling one of his favorite dreams: a U.S.-Iranian consortium.  Of late, that has produced two unexpected agreements, one terminating the Syrian chemical weapons program, and the other temporarily limiting at least some parts of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

The Iranians, likewise, think they’ve made significant advances:  they think they’re in the driver’s seat in Syria, and have won acceptance of their long-claimed “right to enrich uranium.”

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The Big Deal on The Road to War

November 24th, 2013 - 3:35 pm

Schumer doesn’t like the “historic” deal with Iran–it doesn’t seem proportional to him–and Menendez insists that new sanctions are on the way.  Two Democrats, not notoriously leading neocons, both warning that the agreement may be a hard sell to Congress.  But then, Obama may not ask them for approval, so then what?  That would give the Iranians multiple coups:

–First and foremost, money, which they badly need.  According to my sources in Iran, Iranian industry overall is currently at twenty percent of capacity, the regime’s blank check for supporting Assad in Syria has drained the treasury, and the country is down to something like two-to-three months’ hard currency supplies.

The “money coup” is even better than that for the regime, because, as numerous smart people have noted–and as my colleague Mark Dubowitz warned well before the deal was agreed on–this step offers Tehran the real possibility of an end to sanctions altogether.  That’s because Iran will now be able to offer foreign countries and companies the chance to make big bucks, and the companies and countries will become de facto lobbyists for ending sanctions.

Rouhani knows this, and has bragged in a tweet to Supreme Leader Khamenei that the process for ending sanctions has now begun.

–Second, a clear, explicit commitment that Tehran is permitted to continue enriching uranium.  Kerry and Obama have said–and will no doubt continue to say–that we have not recognized an Iranian “right to enrichment,” but the text of the agreement says that Iran can keep enriching (to 3.5%) and that the final agreement we say we want will provide for “a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program.”

If that’s not recognition of a right to enrich, I need remedial English.  And for those of you who think “well, what’s the big deal about a measly 3.5%?” it’s quite a big deal.  From there to weapons-grade uranium is a question of a few months.  And under this deal, Iran gets to keep plenty of 5% uranium.

–Third, yet another devastating confirmation to the regime’s internal opposition that the West is not prepared to seriously challenge the regime.  In case they had any doubts, which they shouldn’t, and by and large didn’t.

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