Michael,

I have to respectfully differ with your statement that “…nuclear programs rarely if ever depend on sole individual.” This may be true in the developed world, but in the rest of the world, it is very often run by a single “star” scientist. This was case with Iraq’s nuclear program before Israel’s targeted assassinations disrupted Iraq’s program for 7 years before ultimately giving way to Israeli airstrike(1).

The particular Iranian scientist in question is the star of their program. As the Iranians move from research & development stage to execution & operation, his expertise would have been a big help. Especially with the centrifuges as these machines are very delicate and prone to breaking. Many a country was unable to get centrifuges working properly and gave up their program as a result – Brazil comes to mind. Brazil’s nuclear effort was incidently, also the product of one man,scientist Othon Pinheiro da Silva. Brazil was able to enrich uranium but never could get to the stage of large-scale thousands of centrifuges which is required. Brazil’s program, it should be noted, was started in response to Argentina’s – another country that could not get pass the centrifuge problem.

The Iranian scientist, Ardeshir Hassanpour, a professor at the University of Shiraz would have been a major asset to overcoming the operational issues that are now and will occur. The scientist was proclaimed the best scientist in the military field in the Islamic Republic in 2003. Hassanpour directed the centre for nuclear electromagnetic studies he had founded in 2005. He had also co-founded the center for atomic research in Isfahan, the most important in the country.

Finally, let’s not forget AQ “Father of the Islamic Bomb” Khan from Pakistan is very much responsible for many programs, not the least of which is Pakistan’s.

So we find that in developing countries, without significant expertise in such advanced technological issues, often a single individual from relatively small “brain pools” can be integral to a particular country’s success.

(1) The best work on the 1974-1981 Israeli plan to disrupt Iraq’s nuclear program is Shlomo Nakdimon’s “First Strike”.

ML:

But the Iranians do not need a single scientist, quite the opposite. They get or have gotten help from No. Korea, Russia, Georgia (Shevardnadze even announced it publicly at a press conference: “aren’t you worried by the fact that our best nuclear physicists are all working in Tehran?), Pakistan, Libya, China, and no doubt France, England and Germany. Good grief! So I’m not going to believe that the death of one man is a major event.

Moreover, awash in petrodollars as they are, the mullahs can just buy bombs, can’t they?