The good science-loving professor’s comparison with earthquake prediction is flawed because science can point very exactly to position and changes in pressures and probabilities of the nature and range of consequence. Political history and intelligence practices can offer no measure of probability. Science informs us on a daily basis on seismic stress factors but when the quake hits the west coast, the time will be so short that nothing can be done to prevent or effectively reduce the carnage. I too respect Mr. Ledeen’s knowledge and concerns. I just don’t perceive how “leaders” can provide any effective support to rebels within a closed tyranny in a degree that would defeat or restrain the tyrant. Any overt action to provide arms would certainly ratchet up the oppression and killing of protesters.

I ask the same questions I asked months ago, and no aid has been forthcoming: How do you get arms past borders to those that would use them? What, otherwise, can foreign Leaders do to bring an end to the tyranny? Rules of war prevent openly providing arms or invasion. If the U.S. were to decide to disregard International law, what wold it gain for the protesters beyond certain death and the havoc of full-scale war? If there has been one thing that recent history has made clear, it is that those who take arms against tyranny for noble and/or humanitarian reasons do little to ameliorate the problems and generate no praise, within or outside the tyrant’s realm, and criticism and abuse from their own people and those nations who simply stand by. I would like to hear some specifics. If we are criticizing inaction we should offer plausible alternative strategies. Faster please on what plan?