Although one should wish those who seek the overthrow of the Iranian government well, one should not succumb to the wishful thinking of exiles who think the Iranian government’s overthrow is just around the corner. It isn’t. I am reminded of Chapter 31, Book II of the Discourses: How dangerous it is to trust to the Representations of Exiles.

The question of whether fraud existed in the last Iranian election is moot. Mr. Khamanei called the results “divinely inspired”, which means that it does not matter how people voted in the first place. Iranians have been holding up signs (in English) asking, “WHERE’S MY VOTE?” My reply to those Iranians is that it never belonged to them in the first place, that Iran has a system of one man, one vote – and that vote belongs to the “Supreme Leader”. How does Mr. Khamanei know the election results are “divinely inspired”? He is the “Supreme Leader” of Iran, which seems to mean he, as the successor to Ruhollah the Erfan Mystic, is supposed to function as the gate to the Twelfth Imam.

So, who leads the Iranian opposition? Rafsanjani? Musavi? Right now, it appears to be led by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Montazeri could be seen as the Milovan Djilas of the Iranian state, representing its reigning ideology in distilled form. Far from representing the overthrow of the “Islamic Revolution”, he is actually the Iranian government’s last best hope for survival and renewal. Yes, Montazeri put out a fatwa calling for revolution. It is an important development, but the fatwa means neither the triumph of reformers nor the overthrow of Ahmadinejad and Khamanei. Instead, Iran faces a political stalemate that neither side can win. The fatwa is a tempest in the Khomeiniist teapot with limited effects upon Iranian public opinion. I think it is safe to say that most Iranians listen to neither Khamanei nor Montazeri; few Shi’ites would regard either one as their marja.

Mr. Ahmadinejad may have lost the real ballot count in the last election, but he does not lack support. The Basiji are far more powerful now than Romania’s Securitate were twenty years ago. (This is an apt comparison given that “Death to the Dictator” was also the rallying cry against Ceauşescu.) If the Eastern Bloc had had the surveillance technology Iran has now, it is debatable that the wave of revolutions in 1989 would have ever taken place. Moreover, there is reason to think Mr. Ahmadinejad can rely upon a solid 20% of the Iranian population to support him. If his solid support were less than 10%, the state would collapse internally. Yet, a solid 20% with a powerful government apparatus behind it can overpower the rest of the population even when the illegitimacy of the regime is manifest to the other 80%.

Can the Iranian government be overthrown? Yes. Is it likely anytime soon? No.