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What If We Were Winning But Nobody Noticed?

February 21st, 2014 - 7:17 am

Lebanon and Iraq are increasingly under Iranian domination, but then again Hezbollah, the main Iranian instrument in Lebanon, and, along with the Revolutionary Guards the Iranian expeditionary force in Syria, is taking casualties, and the body bags are smuggled home in secret.  There’s lots of popular anger at the regime for its Syrian adventure.  Some of the anger comes from with the Guards themselves, who see themselves used as cannon fodder by a regime that keeps raising the stakes.

It’s like the case of the bumblebee, which, the engineers patiently explained to us, cannot fly (wrong ratio of wingspan to body mass, etcetera).  But the bumblebees don’t know that, and so they fly.  And even make some honey.  The geopolitical pundits did not expect the Syrian opposition to last, any more than they foresaw the Iranian uprising of 2009-2010, or the mass demonstrations in Venezuela, or the revolt against the Muslim Brothers in Egypt, or…

Life is full of surprises.  It’s better to admit we don’t know what tomorrow will bring.  But there are some basic rules, usually ignored by the strategists and intellectuals, of which the most important has a place of honor in Machiavelli’s writings:  tyranny is the most unstable form of government.  Intellectuals have self-interested reasons for rather liking tyrants (especially when ideologically congenial–leftist intellectuals like leftist tyrants, rightist intellectuals admire ideologically like-minded rulers), but the air can go out of tyrannical balloons with amazing speed.

The flip side of that coin is that democracies and republics are far more durable, even though (maybe even because) they are fractious, sloppy, inefficient and, especially in foreign policy, typically indecisive.

Rule number two is that the world is slow to change.  Except when the world is seized by convulsions and rapid change is the order of the day.  We’re currently in a period of profound change, from the bipolar Cold War world to…we know not what.  But all those who advocate “stability” have failed to understand this moment.

Rule three is that this world is tailor-made for the American mission, which is to support freedom.  Our current leaders can’t understand this, because they view America-in-the-world as a bad thing, as the root cause of most of the world’s problems, and they have been in cahoots with the anti-Americans.  You know the litany by now:  appease or embrace Iran and Putin and the Chavistas and the Brothers and the Castros. They are failing.  See Rule One.

So maybe it’s a race for the booby prize, a mad dash to see who can lose first.

Except (let’s hope) the freedom fighters.  You never know.

 

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Top Rated Comments   
The problem is that government is using:
* The personal computer
* The cell phone
* The internet
To keep tabs on all of us so they can maintain control.

Let's hope that Americans can keep Americans free.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
The following three American inventions are allowing freedom to sweep the world, threatening even the most restrictive regimes:
* The personal computer
* The cell phone
* The Internet
Let's hope they can keep America free, as well.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
The difference in Cairo, Caracas, Tehran, Damascus, Kiev...when THOSE people were having their freedoms stripped from them, they took their lives in their hands and risked it all...to say no.

There is a country where the people don't seem to be made of the same stuff as those others.

The IRS goes after political dissenters, takes the fifth and walks away Scot free...more free than the people they stripped of their freedoms.

The FCC is trying to put "monitors" in WRITTEN PRESS rooms, among other things.

The AP is spied on.

A Fox News reporter is targeted.

A known innocent man is rousted at midnight, perp walked, arrested and jailed.

A Hollywood conservative group is selectively abused.

Yet...not ONE march in the streets. No rage, no demonstrations for freedom.


Unlike the now denigrated trinket from Norway given to Gore for a hoax and to Obama for...nothing...freedom is a prize that must be earned.

And it can be repossessed if you fail to continue to earn it.

Michael, how can we credibly say we are for freedom abroad...when we show very little energy for fighting for it at home.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (70)
All Comments   (70)
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There are things worth standing up for.

I'm curious, Michael, what do you make of Theodore Shoebat, son of Walid Shoebat.

Both of you are friends of mine on facebook.
29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
What if westerners let the mullahs deliver their auto-detonate nukes hidden somewhere in Tokyo, Paris, London, Or Mumbai in criminal gang hands or Terrorists?
It’s too late. The world powers, very long time ago, lost their chance to really and actually stop mullah’s nuclear ambition. for about more than twenty five year ago, mullahs evil satanic regime were and are involve on their nuclear project construction factories and they’ve built a very large and extensive nuclear complex cycle in a vast distributed geographical area all around Iran country that can’t be stop with just negotiations, you’ve lost many valuable times. Their basement projects are very strong. More than twenty years selling crude and spending thousand billion dollars and thousand hours work under ground by the help of atomic Pakistani scientists and cooperation with North Korea military experts and assemblers, constructed a very large and extensive project that can’t be stop, it’s unstoppable and unbeatable. As much as you could bring down the North Korea nuclear military missile intercontinental launching project, you can beat the Iranian ones.
Just U.S Army Israel Army and Global Community military forces really good know how to stop mullah’s evil satanic nuclear ambition. Iranian mullahs are so different than North Korean essence.
Negotiations with mullahs, sending women for talk with deceptive mullahs agents, just can confess your dithering, your cowardliness, and stupidity. It just gave them time. Mullahs find that you don’t have courage for act.
Warning to all the global wise community: there is a little distance to be completely Nuclear Military Arm by Mullahs’ regime. Their immortality and evil for the region and the entire globe would be eternal.
Enrichment is not important. The main weapon is on their hand, nuke ammo easily can be finding whether now or later whenever they want, they’ll expel your inspectors, and hidden enrichment can be start from where it stopped. Their missile project producing basement is ready and armed. Assembling nuke on missiles easily can be done whether now or later.
Which of these active threats can be stop with negotiations?!!! Iranians neither qualified nor responsible, they are real threat for global peace. Their secret plots and proxies and gangs all around the earth can make you really bad troubles. It seems you can’t recognize black reactionary mullahs and their satanic tendencies for evil. They are skillful in deceive you.
To all the Globe wise countries specially Germany and India who major Iranian importation comes: please stop all exports to Iran whether Industrial or agricultural, every one euro or dollar that comes to Iran, would be treason to your own security and entire world whether now or in the future. To stop the flood of evil it must be damned from the upstream.
Cut off all your exportation toward Iranians, Please, this is an Urgent request.
Please.





29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
Trite, but "It's always darkest before the dawn." While our efforts to keep our adversaries at bay have demoralized and nearly exhausted us, it is possible that they have exhausted our adversaries at a slightly faster pace. Victory may come as a surprise.
29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
Note to Michael Ledeen:

We don't "Win" unless we take advantage of our enemies' "losses."

We're doing no such thing, so we're "losing" right along with our sworn enemies.
29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
Maybe the rest of the world is finally learning the greatest American lesson: that of self-determination and self-reliance.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Almost none of the major events of the past few years was foreseen by the deep thinkers, most all of whom thought that Egypt was lost to the jihadists, Assad was firmly in control of Syria, and Chavismo was destined to rule in Venezuela for years to come."

Dumb Deep Thinkers, DDT's. Particularly stupid in the case of Venezuela as stories of rampant crime and dissolution were everywhere, even while Hugo was still breathing. Maduro isn't nearly as good as Hugo was at blaming America.

(this morning I read that Hugo's daughters & son refuse to move out of the presidential palace and are partying down hard, only food suppliers etc. are refusing to deliver as the kids aren't paying the bills)

Most DDT's have also signed onto manmade global warming, uh, climate change, whatever.

Rules one, two, three...forces operating that defy human ANAL-ysis.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
It's nice that "our side" may be winning in the long run, but that's in the absence of a coherent plan. The dice just happened to roll in our favor. And that's a problem -- what do we do afterwards, if we don't have a plan, or even the outline of a long-term strategy, to take advantage of the outcome?

Currently, we are not being proactive; we're content to watch the world burn. The most that the current administration seems to want out of all this is an opportunity to make S'mores in the fires.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
In Afghanistan (and to a lessor degree Iraq) when the U.S. Army approved an Islamic Law constitution, and went on to order their own troops to have the highest respect for Islam, for most all intents and purposes, they surrendered to Islam, almost as much as the Japanese surrendered on the Battleship USS Missouri to America. And now that respect Islam has been brought back to our homeland.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
Hard to see that where the optimism is justified. Iran has more control over Lebanon and Iraq than a year ago, probably significantly. US weapons sold to the regime in Baghdad may end up in Iranian hands. Meanwhile, the Saudis have apparently sidelined, perhaps for good, Prince Bandar, for being too anti-Iranian. Gulf states show clear signs of accommodating to Persian hegemony. Beyond that, there is the issue of 'who wins if Iran loses'? Moderate Sunnis?

About Egypt, you are right, but that was in part and clearly because of the outrage of the Egyptian people at Obama's support of Morsi. So, if military dictatorship is preferable to Ikhwan rule, which it clearly is, at least for outsiders, then this occurred in opposition to American policy, not because of it. So in the end your analyses always have the US as the good guy, even when it acts as the bad guy, because, well...you and others manage this by creating a complete disconnect between your views and the policies of the Admin and/or glossing over the latter.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
Obama has an anti-American foreign policy. The Secretary of State is a former traitor. Is it clear now?
29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
did you read what i wrote about the policies of the Obama administration? doesn't seem so.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
Yea verily Brother Ledeen, the Marxist rump, in league with the religious rump of the Abrahamic faiths. Both headed for the dustbin of history because they are unworkable. Self extinguishing as we seen in Venezuela. And some good news from Egypt - al Qaeda is killing tourists which might - in the words of the Western press - create a ruthless crackdown from the Egyptian government. Quel Horreur! The Egyptians may just solve the al Qaeda problem in a way that the West will not, at least yet, by hunting them out. So will the Sunnis of Anbar province the next time they take on al Qaeda. Without help from Petraeus they know full well they will have to kill every last one they can. These failed ideologies will go on failing until we work out what comes next - or rather it works us out and presents us with a fait accompli.
30 weeks ago
30 weeks ago Link To Comment
The "Abrahamic faiths" have been around for four thousand years, and will be around long after our current issues are lost to history. Well, Judaism will be, anyway. (And anti-Semitism, of course, the one great constant of human history.)
29 weeks ago
29 weeks ago Link To Comment
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