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The Iranians Are Coming!

September 22nd, 2013 - 7:13 pm

As several Iran followers have pointed out, Rouhani is not an outsider like Ahmadinejad.  On the contrary, Rouhani is the ultimate insider, twice over.  He’s a cleric who, so far as I can tell, is thoroughly committed to the doctrines of the Revolution.  And he has spent his career inside the system, including a lengthy stint atop the Supreme National Security Council, at the right hand of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  To his credit, Thomas Erdbrink in the New York Times carefully identifies Rouhani’s core principles:

(Those close to him) caution that he is, above all, a Shiite Muslim cleric who has dedicated his life to the Islamic Revolution, which he will never betray.

In short, Rouhani seems an unlikely candidate for a man ready for a major breakthrough, unless, of course, he gets a deal so good that he can’t turn it down.  What sort of deal might that be?

The short answer is:  America out of the Middle East, and a quick end to unilateral sanctions.  If Obama offers all that, the Iranians would surely promise to be good boys and let UN inspectors come look at (some of) the uranium enrichment sites, just as their client Bashar Assad has promised to be a good boy and let inspectors check out his chemical weapons stockpile.  Like Assad, the Iranians want to buy time.  Assad needs time to wipe out the opposition, and the Iranians need time to build a few atomic bombs.  How much time?  Some savants believe that they can have enough for a plutonium bomb in six months or so.  That work is going on at Arak, which has never been available to UN inspectors.  The Iranians don’t want us snooping around their military sites, even though that’s precisely what we need to snoop around.

Rouhani might also toss in the release of an American hostage or two.

As for “America out of the Middle East,” Rouhani doesn’t need to convince this administration of that;  they’re already on board.

That leaves sanctions.  There is no doubt the Iranian regime hates the sanctions, even though they excel at busting them and European and British courts have helped Iran no end, by nullifying many of them, especially the painful restrictions on banking.  The Iranian economy is a shambles, and I can’t tell you how much is due to their own policies and how much to sanctions.  But it’s a terrible mess.  Inflation’s probably around seventy percent, for starters.  Most municipalities are broke.  Easing sanctions would help.  Ergo, Rouhani’s charm offensive, wishing the Jews a happy new year, releasing a few token prisoners (a dozen or so out of more than a thousand political captives), promising a new code of civil rights, unblocking Facebook and Twitter for a few hours.  It’s pretty thin gruel, but it has sure generated an amazing amount of enthusiasm.

If you want to know what’s being planned from the Iranian side, the best place to look is the conversation Rouhani had with Putin recently.  There isn’t much available, because the bulk of the conversation was just the two of them and their translators.  But before that private schmooze, there were others in the room, and they heard Rouhani tell Putin that Iran wouldn’t support the chemical disarmament of Syria unless Israel became a nuclear-free zone.  Whatever Obama might desire, he can’t deliver that.

Finally, we will do well to remember Rouhani’s nickname:  “Sheikh Fox.”  You know, tricky.

(Thumbnail image on PJM homepage created using a modified Shutterstock.com image.)

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Top Rated Comments   
I think you're right. And the objective is the Gulf States oil. KSA must know that Russia and Iran together could use a prolonged conflict with a delayed victory in Syria as the starting point to launch an invasion of the Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

In a way, Russia allying itself with Iran is reminiscent of Stalin's pact with ... well, you know who. There's not a lot of common national interests except the control of much of the world's oil ...

The only joker in the deck is China, which probably won't like being shut out ...
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
When reality diverges this sharply from theory the sane thing to do
is get a new theory, but instead our leaders invent a new reality.

On the evidence, Iran and Russia are preparing for war in the N.E.
perhaps nuclear war, and the only way that makes sense, at least
for Russia, is if they expect the a world economic collapse to follow.

Do they know something we don't know - or won't admit ?
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (27)
All Comments   (27)
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Thanks for telling us...G-d bless
42 weeks ago
42 weeks ago Link To Comment
I believe that the recent pink statements by Iranians about nuclear project and the honeyed congratulations for Jews and the renouncing of the denial of the Holocaust and so forth..., it is not more than a policy of deception and deceit by Mullahs of Iran. This is an malicious project propaganda in order to gain the sympathy of the Western world, especially at busting of economic sanctions that imposed by the West, because that sanctions has broke the back of the Iranian regime, and though there is a distasteful European complicity with that bloody regime. It's nothing new by Euros, they and their grandparents were accomplices with Nazi against Jews.
Yes, the Iranians are very excelling at deception, they are seeking to fool you again. For example, Mr. Rouhani is known as a man of security and intelligence, while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's predecessor, "Mr. Mohammad Khatami" was an university professor, the same is true of President Obama.
Although all decisions in Tehran come from the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but president Rouhani remain not lack knowledge and experience. He has served in some sensitive positions in the country "intelligence and national security" where managed difficult files. So may this kind of men does not lack to follow the policy of fox and lion in leadership!?
However, we should not forget President Khatami's promises of dialogue and reform when he declared on Aug. 4, 1997 for a dialogue between civilizations and to follow a policy of good-faith in their relations with the outside world. Today, the other reformist man endeavors likewise.
The claims for love, tolerance, dialogue and reform was little more than a smoke screen, at a time, where the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards were engaged their criminal activities outside the Iranian border, at a time were murdering Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. That statements were not more than a policy of deception and deceit, at a time, the engineers were building a nuclear reactor and enriching uranium in secret underground.
President Khatami and the Iranian theocratic leadership, all of them were served invested the money in covert quest for the bomb, where were operating a covert nuclear-weapons program. All of them are a leaders of the same nature and faces, but in different masks. Iran is a country is ruling by the wicked Revolutionary Guards and the religious extremist forces. All commands and decisions come from the actual ruling powers in Tehran "the extremist religious force headed by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei" who is the supreme head of the state, and all the keys in his hand.
Yes, the Iranians want to buy time to accomplish a few dirty bombs. They want a dialogue, after all, they still continues to enrich uranium while refusing to allow the kind of intrusive and thorough inspections that would allow you to test their claims that they seeks nothing but electricity. They want to buy time so that become a dominant and powerful force in the region that will allow them to wipe out Israel, especially since their influence has became besieged and limited in the region, which is represented in Iran's arm in the region "Syrian's regime and Hezbollah". They and their Syrian proxy strongly are backed by their Russian ally.

The best way to deal with this kind of regimes is to destroy its nuclear facilities and weaken its military capability, in particular those facilities underground. It's time to bring down both evil regimes in (Damascus and Tehran!) In Tehran, at least, destabilize the security and stability of mullahs' regime by supporting the freedom revolution, talk with them is just a waste of time!
Iran pregnant its nuclear program, she is about to give birth, but the worst is, the mother of idiots in the west gives birth every day. therein lies the problem!?
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
Sep 11, 2013 James Corbett of corbettreport.com presents this 5 minute parody of the official conspiracy theory of 9/11. Find out more about the truth of 9/11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrJiKbK0tVM&feature=player_embedded
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
Michael, do you have anything that points to Iran, et al., funding those opposed to pipelines, or fracking?

When you have Daniel Pipes writing http://www.danielpipes.org/13380/symposium-the-geopolitics-of-us-energy it seems to me that we have seen this movie before. The earlier running was of "peace groups", especially in Europe, with ties to the KGB.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
I know an Iranian bomb would be terrible, but is this nation really prepared to go to war with Iran, and even invade and take them over, to stop it, because that is probably what it will take. Given that were were not ready for a much smaller war with Syria, are we really ready for the big one with Iran. Iraq was bad, but a war with Iran would be worse. Maybe it is necessary, but at least if it ends up hapening, dont lie to everybody and pretent it will be easy, it will be as bad as Iraq, possibly worse.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
Call me an optimist, but I think all of this may work OK for Israel at least.

Putin now has the upper hand in the Middle East. He wants two things 1. peace on his southern border without Jihadis stirring up things in Dagestan, Chechnya, and the Winter Games in Sochi next year; and 2 control of the Caspian Basin Oil.

Putin can put the wood to Iran. His proposition is simple do what I say and I will protect you from the Americans. Do it my way and I will get the sanctions lifted. Otherwise, I have 100 divisions of tanks that I can send over the roads to Iran and my bombers can be over Tehran in a heartbeat. And you have no other friends to come to your aid.

Putin will demand that the Iranians stop their nuclear weapons program. He has no interest in having those weapons in the hands of crazy people who can attack Russian cities with short range missiles. But, he will set it up so that sanctions must be ended asap.

That leaves the Saudis and Israel. The Saudis have already reached out to Putin. I think they would be willing to deal with him on the basis of trade agreements for their oil and gas (how about naming Gasprom as their sole agent for exporting gas to Europe and Asia?), and for revivifying OPEC to bleed Europe and China. Further, they will throw in expulsion of the US from its bases in the Kingdom and on the Persian Gulf.

Israel has also made deals with Russia. They have cut Gasprom in on their Mediterranean gas finds. And, I am sure that they can find other areas of mutual interest and cooperation. These negotiations will provide Israel with real leverage against the United States, and a way to stick a thumb in the eye of the EU and its demented leftism.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
I got some respect called a 1911 45.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
I wouldn't trust those lunatics with a ten foot pole.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
The one thing you can count on is that Obama will bow very low and be in his glory. It isn't everyday that he gets to palaver with one of his own in high cotton.
Let's see how the liberal media plays this gettogether. Should be an interesting thing to watch. They could call it a Muslim summit....
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
I am surprised that any Western person would be looking for an honest reappraisal of Iranian-American relations simply because an Iranian Shiite Muslim cleric, a fanatic at that, is coming to New York City for a (Ugh!) United Nations hootnanny. First of all, I would recommend a review of what you are going to be dealing with: (1) a fanatical Shiite cleric dangerous enough on his own to have clawed his way to the top rungs of a religious/political machine that is totally corrupt from it's heart to it's visible surface; (2) an individual who would literally slit the throat of a female infant that displeased him by crying at the wrong time; (3) a man, and I use that term lightly, that would send his own mother to hell if she admonished him in any manner; (4) and a practiced liar of Olympic proportion who would let nothing interfere with his personal possession of a nuclear weapon, preferably dozens of them.

Compared to Hasan Rouhani, Bubba Clinton is almost as clean as the white driven snow. Compared Hasan Rouhani, even Hillary Clinton comes out a distant third or fourth.
The recommended Obama administration dealings with Hasan Rouhani should be limited to making sure he pays for his accompanying underlings hotel accommodations before he is allowed to leave town.
Flim-flam artists of Hasan Rouhani's mien only come along rarely, so everything he says or does should be recorded for posterity so that his character flaws are not lost to study once the Izzies fry him in his own juices.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
After what these assholes did in New York, you can forget me participating in this event.
43 weeks ago
43 weeks ago Link To Comment
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