The Israel/Iran War Game
Why is that? Because Israel is only going to do it if they think they know that time’s up. That the Iranians have everything they need to put a nuclear warhead on a serviceable missile that can hit Israel. Israel does not want to do it. For as long as I can remember, the Israelis have been trying to get U.S. to do it, because they have long believed that Iran was so big that only a big country could successfully take on the mullahs in a direct confrontation. So Israel’s Iran policy has been to convince us to do whatever the Israelis think is best. And while they’re willing to do their part, they are very reluctant to take on the entire burden.
Just read what Israeli leaders are saying and you’ll see that, I think.
But if you’re the prime minister, and your head of military intelligence comes to you and says “time’s up,” and you’ve failed to convince the Americans, then you’ve got to act.
Is that the situation today? I don’t know, and I don’t know if anyone around here — including Petraeus and Panetta — knows. The one thing I do know is that in order to answer the “will they or won’t they?” question, you’ve got to know what the Israelis think they know about the Iranians.
Which you don’t. Nor I. So shut up and stop sucking your thumb.
Thank you, Michael Ledeen.
Here’s a paste of what I posted on Spengler’s piece this morning:
” 4. Charlie Griffith
Journalists [bless 'em] are merely working up ideas evolving from the partially-informed confines of their fraternity. They’re very, very good with words and ideas, no more…no less.
All of the various Israeli Governments however, polar opposites, are working with deadly daily realistic facts.
Journalists’ conjectures are good exercises, but isn’t it more realistic to see what actually happens…..rather than mull over chin-in-hand, partially informed conjecture?
We won’t know until observable results of Cabinet decisions happen in real time.
August 13, 2012 – 7:15 am …..”
I loved this at the end of your piece:
…”Is that the situation today? I don’t know, and I don’t know if anyone around here–including Petraeus and Panetta–knows. The one thing I do know is that in order to answer the “will they or won’t they?” question, you’ve got to know what the Israelis think they know about the Iranians.
Which you don’t. Nor I. So shut up and stop sucking your thumb…..”
….for emphasis, let’s look at this neat phrase once more…
“….and I don’t know if anyone around here–including Petraeus and Panetta–knows.”
….and, permit me to add that they ain’t talkin’.
Go to http://www.adinakutnicki.com for my own take on the matter.
And, by the way, this is NOT a parlor game for me, nor a crap shoot. It is life and death for me and my family, knowing full well that my IDF Reservist sons will be called into the fray. Many others will be too.
Of course, Michael is correct. Only Bibi/Barak know for sure-as it should be!
Keep your tail down , partner. My best wishes and some sincere prayers are headed your way. Can’t hurt, may help. About your boys: I expect their names to shine!
Take care, Adina. A few days away from your blog may be in order.
All the best to your young stalwarts and patriots..Larry
I fear this one will be just as dangerous for us civilians, dear.
No, that’s for Obama’s campaign team to do. If I were the Israelis, I wouldn’t tell us anything they don’t want the Iranians to have within 48 hours.
there’s a good reason to speculate that bibi and ehud will attack before the election:
obama less likely to come out against an israeli attack before the election.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/10/israeli-newspaper-says-pm-defence-minister-want-to-attack-irans-before-u-s-election/
It is not difficult at all to imagine such information leaking. You think there are no leftists in Israel? It is right out of their playbook to try to stop some action they do not agree with by leaking like a sieve. It is what they do and who they are.
“It is what they do and who they are.” Truer words were never spoken.
Doesn’t take a Leftist, just a journalist.
Opposite the bus station I take on the way home is a huge mall, which was hit on the way home. The idiot reporter – wasn’t she in the army, for Heaven’s sake – started to give ranging information, before someone stopped her.
Of course, they wouldn’t be stupid enough to tell.
Sorry, hit in the Gulf War. And they wouldn’t tell someone like that reporter.
“Doesn’t have to be a leftist, just a journalist.”
More and more these days, that’s becoming a redundant statement (with PJ Media one noteworthy exception!).
Every the wise man, Mr, Ledeen is saying “I am neither a prophet nor the son of a prophet.”
And neither is anyone else alive today.
But,but,but, I like sucking my thumb,it tastes like VICTORY.And licorice.
I started gritting my teeth when they re-elected Bibi. Israelis didn’t vote for him for his corn policy.
The red line is probably well before “…the Iranians have everything they need to put a nuclear warhead on a serviceable missile that can hit Israel.”
You’re right, we don’t know. But you don’t know what their red line is – even as well connected as you most certainly are.
The red line may be when the nuclear facilities are about to be buried and dispersed out of reach of effective IAF attack.
It might be somewhere else.
If they are going to do it at all, it’s unlikely that they are foolish enough to wait until a missile and warhead are ready to be joined, because by then it’s too late – where is the missile? Where is the warhead, or are there 5 of them dispersed?
We don’t know.
There are those (not speaking for myself) who are cynical enough to believe the Tel Aviv (*) would be willing to give up one city for “peace”.
(*) I don’t mean the military, the only part of government in Tel Aviv. I mean the Leftists who to a large extent run things no matter who is elected.
DEBKA: “The exceptional talents [dripping sarcasm I take it] of Netanyahu and Barak [Israel's Barak, not 'our' Barack] to put off strategic decisions until they are overtaken by events has landed Israel in an especially perilous plight, surrounded now by a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Iran from the east; threatened Syrian chemical warfare from the north and the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt to its south.”
Will Israel strike Iran?
Only if Jews are serious about “Never again!”
Are we? I wish I knew.
They already have.
Suxnet. Assassinations. A lot of stuff we don’t have a clue about.
But here is a bit of pure speculation; when Iran is hit it will not be a pure air attack. If it is an air attack at all. And it may not even be at the “facilities”.
A minor thought experiment: if the Japanese had wanted to take out Los Alamos, given the impossibility of bombing with certainty, what would they have done?
I have no doubt that Israel will bomb if that is the only option. But there are other options and I suspect they are afoot as I write.
Go Israel!
Correct! Israel is already attacking Iran. It’s in Israel’s interest to achieve its national security objectives without doing anything that makes for good television. No jet planes and exploding bombs. The Iranian nuclear program gets delayed as their critical infrastructure malfunctions and an key people die. Could they directly take out Mullahs if they tried? The quiet plausible denial makes the Mossad even more feared and respected.
Speaking of respect, here’s another reason (pre-Obama re-election being the other) I believe an Israeli strike is now very imminent: PR & respect. Their credibility is at stake now…they have tried to draw the line and then backed off at our behest so many times now…but this time (I mean last few days), they are being so unequivocal that if they don’t make a move, people are going to start to ignore them.
Well said.The goal of Israel would be rightly served by staying below the media circus radar.Better utilizing their covert assets, namely Mossad.WDH
Yup, Stuxnet, Duqu, Flame.
Whomever made those knows exactly how far the Iranian program has progressed.
Whoever.
I sure hope they don’t wait until Iran has a working bomb ready to go on a missile, because they’ve got real problems hitting that one bomb, and worries about 3 or 5. If it gets to that point and the US or Israel hasn’t acted, Israel might use nukes. Which would be bad.
Ramadan ends this coming weekend. I think something will happen next week already….not because I have insider information, but because the local news is now reporting about two new developments: 1) Bibi has been granted additional powers to make quick decisions (allowing a decision to be made within 12 hours and getting approval from the government by phone). 2) Avi Dichter has been appointed the new Home Front minister. The Israeli government is on summer recess, and this appointment did not need to be made now unless it was really needed.
Several complications-
1) History of leaks from White House.
2) Egyptian M60s moved to border.
3) Syrian rebels now equipped with T62s and stingers.
4) Iran will have warhead on or about October 1.
Bottom line- the smallest error, a simple slip of the tongue, could set of WW3.
Thank you Mr.President.
Yes, lots of complications. How do you like treachery, as well.
Supposedly, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will allow the IAF to fly over it in order to hit Iran. But what if they lied and shoot down the IAF planes? of course, to be really treacherous, the KSA doesn’t have to shoot down any IAF planes. It could just warn Iran that Israeli planes were on the way.
Remember, even though Israel was at war w/KSA a few times, it never bombed any oil wells. Iran has threatened KSA that if it gets attacked, its missiles will take out Saudi oil fields. The KSA might not like Iran, but it certainly likes its own oil wells.
Saudi Arabia (among many others) declared war on Israel in, when, 1948? I don’t think the state of war has ever been withrdrawn.
I suppose you mean active fighting.
A fair number of Jews in Israel don’t want Israel to strike Iran, ever. OK they are certainly in a minority, but still… Some of these Jews are in such extreme denial about Iran’s genocidal aims, they cross over from neurosis into psychosis. Some of my family members for example (not my nuclear family, I mean aunts and cousins), then again my wider family is just plain nuts. Thing is their psychotic denialism is not that unusual. People would be surprised at how nuts so many Tel Aviv ‘Jews’ are, especially. I mean I could tell you stories about Jewish self-loathing in Tel Aviv (just from the last three months or so), that would shock even those of you who think you’ve heard and seen it all. Remember these people don’t have the excuse of loony liberal Jews in NY or London, we are in the cross-hairs.
Good short to-the-point article from Ledeen, well said. Too many Israelis across the political divide are playing at Nostradamus, it would be funny, except it isn’t. I have had my differences with Ledeen, but kudos to him for pointing out the obvious, which is why so many people have trouble seeing it.
Larry ,Give your crazy cousins something else to read and listen to instead of the daily leftist brainwashing drugs Haaretz,Chanel 2,10,YNET,that turn the masses into spinning hamsters on a wheel, Haaretz and Chanel 10.
December 2011
There is coming an all out war in the Middle East as the neighboring Arab nations will come against Israel with a sudden missile attack starting from the north with Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Syria. Other Arab nations will join. Israel will be hit from all sides at once and there will be deaths and partial destruction of settlements, smaller cities to the north, and some damage to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as well. Israel will respond with great force, and limited nuclear weapons will release devastation upon the neighboring countries, particularly Lebanon, Damascus, which will be destroyed completely, and the rest of Syria as well as military strikes into Iran, Gaza, and even northern Egypt/Sinai region.
http://www.mauricesklar.com/Teachings/Prophecy/prophecy.html
Ditto on the kudos for Leeden.
Hang in there Larry, we’re all nuts or we wouldn’t be here — just take a look at any map of the Middle East.
Yo
I suggest the Israelis target Gom, the religious center of Iran, since the mad mullahs are driving this confrontation.
Michael Leeden: It’s quite obvious you don’t live in Israel! This is not a game. What do we know? Obama will not “have our back”. Unless he want’s to make it the October surprise.
Judging by the irresolute stances of many in Israel, it’s unclear whether Israel has its own back.
Yes, but the one true thing we absolutely, positively, 100% sure do know, they ain’t gonna tell Barry squat!
Old Yiddish saying – ‘Man Plans,God Laughs’
I’m reminded of the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. This could go many ways,Assad and Hezbollah fire a number of chemical weapons into Israel,game on.
http://www.debka.com/article/22273/Syrian-rebels-armed-with-first-T-62-tanks
Joke of the day – The US feels a profound commitment to the defense of Israel…and that is why we are always restraining Israel and arming their enemies.
I can predict this much with great confidence. The Israelis will be one hell of a lot more confident in US suppoort once ObamaRx is gone! from office.
Old School, It’s either dementia or you’re dreaming ?
Under the pseudo Republican Bush, Israel was weakened and restrained everyday while the U.S rewarded the Palestinian Terrorist Authority.
No matter what heinous atrocity they committed the money kept flowing.
The US is directly responsible for emboldening Iran and leading us into WWIII because it was president Bush who came to the rescue of Hezbollah in 2005 and Hamas in 2009.
WAKE UP !!!!
This fake Peace land for jihad and rockets President Bush was pushing for 8 years on Israel while restraining them has lost any deterrence they once had.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast today.
‘there are those inside Israel who won’t allow it because they know they would suffer very severe consequences from such an act,”
Have Israel’s ‘brainless leaders’ like Ehud Olmert realized how much they have emboldened Iran’s insane leaders by their failure to defeat Iran’s proxy armies Hezbollah 2006 and Hamas 2009 and listening to Washington’s call to retreat instead?
Somebody in Israel should be on trial for listening to President Bush instead of defeating Hezbollah and Hamas because this will lead to a catastrophic war.
Israel knows that an attack the month before the election will force Obama to join in to avoid the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz, and the economic devastation that would result just before the election. That is the only time they can force the US hand with Obama in office. If he stands aside, he will assuredly lose the election.
You mean the only way to save Israel is for us to get four more years of O, thus destroying ourselves?
Oy! Talk about ends vs. means.
Whatever the actual state of affairs…
You can bet our intelligence in Israel is good. You can also bet our intelligence in Iran is piss poor, not only cuz of incompetence, but also cuz the job’s a very tough one. Turning a Moslem can’t be easy. They’re even resistant to blackmail. The threat of death is weak to a Moslem, who believes in Jannat, a kind of porn-heaven stuffed with 11-yr old virgins, flowing streams of wine, thrones, giant cheese plates and all that. A sexy place any red blooded man would love. Also, parental instinct is weak Dar al-Islam.
I’d guess the loyalty among the Iranian population is somewhere in the 99.9% to 100% range… disincluding the Zoroastrians, Christians, Jews and Bahais living there, of course.
The important question is what the Persian Moslems are up to. My bet is the Israelis know a lot more about that than we do; American intelligence is probably focused on what the Jews know about what the Persian Moslems are doing. This is not a good situation; a preventive strike by Israel is likely to result in a sustained conflict of some kind, and After Bibi’s experience with Prez Barack Hussein, the IDF is understandably gonna be reserved in its sharing with the U.S. Navy and CIA.
“I’d guess the loyalty among the Iranian population is somewhere in the 99.9% to 100% range… disincluding the Zoroastrians, Christians, Jews and Bahais living there, of course.”
Don’t forget the green revolution and how President Obama ignored them. The Iranian support for the mad mullahs is not nearly that high.
I don’t know much about Iran, but my guesstimate of hardcore support for the regime out of the total population? Not more than 35%, maybe less.
Israel will not attack before the US election in November unless something terrible happens in Iran, such as the Iranians announcing that they have the bomb. If Obama is re-elected (God forbid), the odds are probably quite good that Israel will do something to stop the Iranians because I really believe the Israelis think Obama will do nothing. Obama will say that since countries like Pakistan and North Korea already have the bomb, so what’s the big deal if Iran gets the bomb? What Obama is NOT saying is that a country that has publicly committed itself to the destruction of Israel will now have the bomb, and THAT is the difference.
Obama will not get involved in another foreign war if he thinks it will degenerate into a larger conflict. Attacking Libya was one thing, but Iran is another ball game. Attacking Iran would be like attacking Iraq, only worse because the Iranians are much more heavily armed. They also have the potential of closing the Straits of Hormuz, blocking our oil shipments. What that would do to the world’s economy is anybody’s guess. So Obama isn’t going to do a thing if it means doing some very heavy lifting or fighting. And that reality may force Israel to act on its own.
If ME oil became unavailable, perhaps our home-grown Green-Weenies would finally get the message that the Keystone-XL pipeline is in our national interest, as is exploring for, and drilling for oil where-ever it exists within the confines of the United States, and offshore waters.
I won’t hold my breath.
The geo-political results of an Israeli strike on Iran are probably more scary for the 0 administration than the strike itself. Would it result in Morsi’s fall in Cairo or would the Egyptian army decide to support Morsi’s undoubted call for an invasion of Israel? Would it prop-up or help bring down Assad in Damascus? What happens in Jordan? Lebanon? 0 would have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open regardless, and that would mean taking out the Iranian Republican Guard navy, as a minimum. And those thoughts are merely the tip of the iceberg with regard to what might result from an Israeli strike.
Here’s a Red tip everyone seems to be ignoring.
Russian Akula class killer sub operated in Gulf of Mexico for a month withour being detected. http://freebeacon.com/silent-running/
Russia will not sit out any Western intervention in Syria or Iran,ditto for China and the gang.
Say your prayers because decadent,perverted,corrupt,bankrupt,sodomy land America doesn’t have a prayer.That’s why God gave us Obama and He never ever led a queer army before and He never will.
Marcel -
Iran has silent subs, as well. Several years ago, an Iranian sub sent a video picture of the bottom of a US carrier to that very carrier — in real time.
The Egyptian Army would be unable to take out their M1-Abrams from their parking lot without US support. The same is true with the rest of their arsenal.
Without money, a war is not made. Without money they would be unable to amass the fuel to move their Army in the battlefield. Now, they are scraping around just enough money to prevent the population from starving too much and it is improbable they are able to scrap enough money in the near future to continue to feed their people.
Another important point is, it is easy to advocate war when you have many children and many males. When you have one son or two, it is entirely different.
What could we see in the future is Egypt doing nothing to prevent attacks from Sinai and smuggling inside (not outside) Gaza (both from land and sea). And Israel would respond raising a wall at the border with Egypt (it should have done it already).
Syria is too much a mess to be a real problem for Israel. Hassad will not dare to attack Israel and the rebels will not wish to battle on two fronts, so they will not allow attacks from Golan.
Hezbollah is circled by enemies awaiting a sign of weakness, an opening for payback. They pick a fight to Israel and, if they are smashed enough, the others will shred them in pieces this time.
we don’t know, but yes we do
when, we don’t know
we can only hope it’s before Iran does
I disagree. I hope Iran attacks Iran (and the regime is replaced by somethign more peaceful) before we (Israel) do.
obama’s got plenty of spies snooping and poking around in Israel
Michael Ledeen: I am not at all sure that Netanyahu-Barak’s plan is to get the US to do the dirty work. But I guess your sources are inside various beltways, etc.
I think the idea is simply that thee US has a much better chance of succeeding / survivng the aftermath.
When we hit the reactor in Iraq, the US objected, even though they knoew full well (as Senator Hatfield told us a my graduation) what it was for.
Okay, partly true. But Israel will survive this mess.
You are from Oregon, beautiful state..
get smart for once and vote for a friend for a change
really? and who might that be?
go figure out who for yourself
hint: someone who doesn’t bow down to Jew-haters
okay, I’ll be on the lookout for that, thanks
I wish we here in Israel had a candidate like that.
Helps to get Obama out of the White House!!!
It’s naive to think that insiders on the far left won’t betray Israel. They are leftists first, last, and always. Look at the efforts to undermine Israeli security in the past.
The situation is so awful, that I always feel uncomfortable even speculating publicly about what I can guess or conclude based only on public facts.
One important point has to be how the US presidential election is going, and how it goes.
(shakes head sadly)
Well, this is news of a sort; Dr. Ledeen thinks we have the capability to take Iran out. I didn’t think we did – not that I know anything at all abotu such matters – so this is good news. Although the best would be if we didn’t have to risk it.
Of course we can “take out” Iran. The question is, do we do that and leave something behind or do we do it and wipe the Persian empire off the face of the planet forever. I don’t advocate the second possibility, but if a nation plays with fire it might consider whether or not it is likely to get burned.
I think the idea is to take out the nuclear capability, assuming we can.
I don’t think what you say is on the table.
But some say that an attack on Iran before the election is precisely
what Obama would do, in order to rally the people behind him and secure
his re-election.
It’s worked before, and we would not put anything past this president
in his efforts to remain in office.
Good luck, America.
Good luck, Israel.
Please keep in mind that the Israelis have done this before – kept a rogue state from going nuclear. Arguably, they’re the only ones who ever have.
And, in spite of a partisan press that makes America’s look tame, they can keep secrets when they have to. (Did you hear any leaks about Entebbe, or Osirak? Did you know when the Syrian reactors was about to get levelled? Did you have advance warning of Stuxnet? Me neither.)
THE RISKS THIS TIME ARE MUCH HIGHER.
The problem w/striking Iran is not only the distance, but the difficulty of knocking out something under a mountain or two. Also, Iran is looking for a strike, while Syria, Iraq and Uganda weren’t.
Now there are Egyptian tanks in the Sinai, while Hezbollah as well as Hamas have more and better missiles than ever. In fact, Hamas has lots of advanced Russian weapons from Libya. Assad has also threatened to attack Israel if he thinks he’s going to lose. Plus, Assad has chemical and biological weapons — not to mention that now Assad has the latest Russian air defense system.
This is about as risky as it gets.
Amateurs guess at intentions, professionals gage capabilities.
Israel is capable of making a small (relative to the targets) raid on Iran. What it cannot do is a sustained aerial campaign that could stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Only the USA has that sort of military power(Mainly from Aircraft Carriers).
Then there is the blowback (response). In WW2 the Japanese expected America to quit and let them have their expanded empire. The Admiral that planned Pearl Harbor knew better. He said “I’ll run wild for 6 months but then American production will swamp us.”
Guessing what the Mad Dog Mullahs will do is a waste of time. That they will respond is a certainty. What are they capable of? Not a lot on the military front. A few Theatre ballistic missiles. They do not have enough to swamp Israel’s anti- missile defence. Any aircraft would be on one way missions. Terror attacks would increase but not by much if any. Terrorism against Israel has declined not because of restraint on the terrorists part but because Israel is improving at counter-terrorism. They are inside the loop of Islamic terrorism.
The Arab spring seems to have removed the threat of co-ordinate military assaults by Syria and Egypt. At least for now. So for the next couple of months, there seems to be a window of opportunity opening. Seems. An Israeli attack on Iran could end the conflicts in Syria and Egypt to focus on Israel. I doubt it but one never knows.
Politically it would be a total disaster.
I don’t see it having any affect on the election. This election is about the economy.
Israel does not see it that way. They are used to implacable enemies who will still be a threat no matter what. Israeli operations wheather against Hamas, Hezzies, Syria etc are seem as “mowing the grass” not a permanent solution. You hit the nail on the head with the concept of capabilities. The idea is to reduce the capability of the enemy for as long as achievable.
According to the latest “leak” to the NYT they have a very plausible plan which would begin with conventional ballistic and cruise missile attack then follow up from IAF. They talked about a broad range of targets and hinted at capabilities not yet disclosed. It is very believable as the entire air force, northern and southern commands have all been configured around this one mission and the potential counter strikes. They will not wait for a perfect solution.
Iranians have a long history of bluster. When confronted with the same they double down. When confronted by force they back off.the conventional forces are weak which is why they want the Bomb to begin with. Yep they will fire missiles but I doubt they will attack a USN carrier. They would last maybe 24 hours in a regional war.
Iran thinks US is bluffing and will stop Israel. They former may be true. The latter is a grave mistake on their part.
Some quick thoughts: 1. Assuming Iran creates a nuclear device, it seems logical to assume it will be tested. If tested, it should be detectable. 2. A nuclear device is not a deliverable missile warhead. 3. A nuclear device or first generation nuclear bomb could be delivered by a large aircraft, in the hold of a ship, or a truck. 4. Current Iranian leadership is not rational in the western sense as demonstrated in the Iran-Iraq War when they willingly sent thousands of their own children to certain death against the Iraqi’s. The threat of death of thousands, even millions of their countrymen is not a deterrent to current Iranian leadership. 5. Failure to stop Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons will likely result in war, perhaps a world war. 6. Iranian capability is critical. Deterrence is not possible given Iran’s present leadership. Therefore, it is rationale to assume the Iranians do as they say they will do – attempt to destroy Israel using any available means.
An Iranian nuclear bomb might very well be test by the North Koreans, who have also provided the delivery system.
The Israeli’s will definitely attack Iran when the fallout from the Tel Aviv nuclear strike begins to rain down black and wet across the Nation of Israel and mixes with the chemical weapons sent right after.
I do not see any strike happening before then.
Yep,that’s about the time Jerusalem gets their green light from the emperor in Washington.
Until then Barak and Netanyahu are to sit on their hands,but they do have the open ‘green light’ to knock down all the Jewish homes they can get away with.
Michael, I know you were using a MObamaism: “gonna”, but with so many using “gonna” it’s becoming like fingernails scratching a blackboard.
Let us ALL stay away from “gonna”, PLEASE!!!
Otherwise, good piece!
Please, let’s get away from “cuz” also.
“““““““`
In this slot here, I’d like to bring up something which nobody mentions here in the USA, it’s so terribly, insufferably, politically incorrect; but I personally think that we’ve got a Fifth Column in our Muslim enclaves such as Northern Virginia-istan and Dearborn-istan, in Michigan, in the quiet, low profile stance of our resident Muslims, I don’t care if they are technically citizens, holding United States passports for travel convenience or not, We simply are scattering ostrich feathers all about us in our public denial of this risk.
Remember how few Muslims brought about that horrible morning in September of 2001.
Those of us of a certain age retain vivid memories of the Japanese residents here in 1942 when Franklin Roosevelt, not exactly a shrinking violet, issued his Executive Order quarantining all Japanese residents, confining them within Internment Camps….[our 21st century truncated attention spans exclude anything 25 hours in the past]…..I know….I know….the A.C.L.U. has my number, and I’m not in any event advocating Internment of all of our resident Muslims, “moderates”, or not…the practicalities are insuperable in any event. They’ve penetrated everywhere.
However, what needs to be emphasized is our domestic Muslim threat which we’re belittling. Obama has just had his “Iftar” moment. I cringe when I think of Bush at the mosque here on Massachusetts Avenue right after the Muslim attacks on New York and Washington….. saying in effect, that “We’re not at war with Islam.” I say we are very much at war with Muslims/Islam. Muslims themselves say repeatedly that they are at war with us infidel Americans. We’re ignoring that at our peril. That’s why there’s such a hue and cry here over “profiling”, it actually works.
I have no answers for this hideously complex, albeit lethal problem. I have no “sources” or “contacts”. But I do have a memory and, had the Japanese exercised such as an A.C.L.U or such as a C.A.I.R., 1942 in American could perhaps have been a hideously different story. That’s the clout we’ve permitted our resident Muslims to exercise via “lawfare”. They’re very good at using our cherished freedoms against us.
Lastly, what I find personally shocking now is the stark contrast between the angered, united America of 1942 and the head-in-the-sand-don’t-bother-me escapist attitude so obvious at present.
i worry a lot about Russians, too. A lot. I worry about them in Iran and Syria, too. And here.
but i saved three keystrokes, Dan. downsizing.
The Iranians are puppets of the “Soviets.An attack before the elections will invite retaliation from sleeper cells here in the U.S.The russians will be waiting for that small window of opportunity to take advantage of the situation (russian sus in gulf , recent bomber test runs ) as B.O.suspends the elections.I hope Israel waits until after the election so as to short circuit the soviet plans,as they know Romney and Ryan will strongly Israel .St Michael the Archangel defend us in battle
Mr. Obama, today the International forest is full of monsters and predators, while you and your ilk of other accomplices have made mindlessly the American Lion a Lion without canine teeth, sadly!
And could someone also tell all of those naive college students, you know, Ron Paul’s base?
Paul himself is more of a throwback to the old AFC.
Dear mzk1, I just wondering, Why there are still some Americans whom casting their votes for such shame of people? In fact they who constitute the greatest threat – after Islamic regimes – to the Greatness of the USA. I think is better for Mr. Ron Paul or as it were “America’s Lukashenko” to return to practice his medical profession.
Ah, Guam, how you are so beautiful and bright today since you were subjected to the Great country and its Great ideology. Does Mr. America’s Lukashenko and his ilk aware of this today? Surely not…either they are color blind, or do not see further than their noses!? … How you are a Great, Dr. Michael Ledeen, (the Great America) is really PROUD OF YOU, while America of Obama and Carter “the Socialist America” and its other wimps trying to discredit you, not surprising, because above all (they hard working to DESTROY that Great country.) All shame on them, let them rot in Hell!!!
Past Israeli military history and doctrine indicate a profound propensity toward a sudden, completely unpredicted, attack. So much talk now about a potential Israeli strike makes such a surprise move unlikely, leading one to infer that an attack is not in the offing.
When Israel destroyed the nuclear plant in Syria, they did not brag about it, and the Syrians did not complain, either. Business was taken care of, and nobody made a big deal of it. Iran may have already been hit by Israel in various unspectacular ways, and we don’t even know about any of it, not even whether it happened. We just read unverified stories about crafty software missiles that quietly penetrated centrifuge control systems to damage delicate equipment, but how would we know whether this is true? Based on the striking silence following the event in Syria, we can reasonably ask whether the most effective actions are also the least noticeable?
The Israeli are the only ones urgently motivated to do anything serious about Iran, and I suppose they would not make any unnecessary noise about whatever they are doing. If we hear any noises emitted by Israel, they are more likely to be skillfully targeted tokens of misinformation. Even if significant things have already happened, we are unlikely to know about them.
If we experience some irrepressible urge to speculate, we might as well apply it to the markets, where guessing wrong is not lethal.
Dear Michael, any Israeli military strike to stop the Iranian nuclear program would be a huge and complex and different from the previous specific surgical Israeli strikes.
As for Saudis, they will not allow another country, according to their claim (Israel) to attack a Muslim country. They hope to be adequate diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to freeze its nuclear ambitions which certainly such terms are rejected by the mullahs of Iran. Because this is a part and parcel from the nature of evil regime in Tehran.
P.S:
If I “in person” were an Israeli pilot, the great thing I gladly will do it is: (I will headed the Giant Boeing B-52 so that crush the Kaaba, Mecca before striking Iran!!!?) Perhaps it is a dream, but, but unfutile dream! Who knows?! G-D Bless…..
I suspect (like many others) that the Israeli counterstroke is already underway in a subtle and almost unnoticeable fashion. Simply snarling the traffic light system in Tehran and causing congestion and economic “friction” might not sound earth shattering or war winning on its own, but the steady accumulation of “friction” in the economy, the political system and the social networks that actually run a nation can cause far more damage than air attacks.
Imagine if the the banking system shuts down? Then the traffic system is totally paralyzed as the Regime calls out the Revolutionary Guards, and government power cannot be applied because the troops are caught in traffic? Then the cellular phone network crashes? Then while everyone is wondering what is happening, the TV networks are shut down, while censorship of Twitter and Facebook are suddenly lifted? I’m sure you can think of your own scenarios (and even plot them in a much more effective manner)
They have to stop the nukes. Traffic jams and bank closings don’t get you there.
I don’t know, and I don’t know if anyone around here — including Petraeus and Panetta — knows.
I don’t think (there’s that word!) that the former wants to know. Not from a “head in the sand” standpoint, but from a “I don’t want to be the leaker” standpoint.
As for the latter, I wouldn’t trust him with that secret as far as I could throw him (I’m an overweight, out of shape, 57 year old male).
Stay safe, Michael.
We don’t know and if Obama’s campaign doesn’t start taking credit for any coordinated plans for purposes of boosting his “credibility”,we should not know.
(Not sure where Valerie Jarrett stands on the issue…and still don’t know what’s on that Rashid Khalidi tape being held hostage by the LA Times)
Can the Israeli’s wait until November? We would have a better idea of how much help we might provide after then…I mean, if we don’t gut our only military in half by an automatic suicide pact this administration has put in place.
To say we are an unstable friend and ally at the moment would be a monumental understatement. Maybe the Mossad can help us find out what IS on that tape that has to be bound and gagged and held prisoner by one of our esteemed Propaganda and Lies Ministry members. It might give us a clue as to what to expect, if something goes down prior to this land of ours getting completely overturned by its own Government by Ambush.
November may be our last hope, Michael. When Obama patted Medvedev’s knee and said to tell Vladimir that the “second term” was going to be filled with goodies for the Russians…it should have sent a chill up every Israeli’s spine. I know it did mine.
This time next year in Jerusalem…if there is a this time next year.
“… still don’t know what’s on that Rashid Khalidi tape.”
You can be sure it’s not pro-Israel.
The only way to pry this tape out of the hands of the LA Times would be for someone to offer an extremely large reward for it. This tape might very well be an election game-changer.
This is all disinformation. Israel cannot successfully take out Iran’s nuclear program without US permission and cooperation. The US cannot participate in yet another Middle Eastern war without international sanction as well as regional (GCC) cooperation (like airbases), not to mention the permission of both the Pentagon and Congress–both houses. This will also require a time-consuming Desert Shield-type troop and supply buildup. The international community is currently pursuing tighter sanctions on Iran, which are having an effect. Iran is years away from having a bomb, let alone a deliverable one, let alone an accurately deliverable one. Remember when Israel had to attack Iran because of the Russian SAMs that were about to be installed? Whatever happened to that casus bellli? Of course Obama would love a splendid little war on election day, but this is not it. Grenada and the Falklands were splendid little wars; a war with Iran is another kettle of fish.
The only way Bibi can know what he thinks he knows about the Islamist regime in Iran is for Hussein Obama’s goon Panetta to constantly be a pest and an informer by going inside the belly of the beast in Israel and report back to Hussein Obama on what he think what Bibi thinks he thinks about what Iranians think he does. Right?
In so far as Panetta the Pimp does not interrupt Hussein Obama with these reports during his Ramadan Iftar dinners with the “other” Islamists and the usual suspects he chums with and loves so much.
I’ve said from the beginning of the Iraq war that the US did have reason to attack Sadam and CO. Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction. They quietly moved them to Syria while Colin Powell pleaded our case with the UN. I watched for 6 weeks prior to “Shock and Awe”, and it was reported that convoys were headed west, at night, but were not hit by US forces because we hadn’t been given “permission” by the rest of the world to strike. Now, Syria is using these same weapons on their own people!
“The Teheran Initiative” by Joel C. Rosenberg paints a convincing picture of Israel going after Iran’s nukes, as well as other things.
“The Damascus Countdown” looks to be interesting as well.
I do not agree with your analysis. I think it is important for people to discuss, ponder and review the possibilities with respect to Iran and their mercenary surrogates getting nuclear weapons.
It is of course true that when predicting the future it is appropriate to speak in terms of “the probability of events occurring”; there are not really absolutes when predicting future events and that is true even for Bibi et al. So, yes: “no one knows”; so?
Since it is as simple as shutting down the electricity in all of Iran to stop Iran’s nuclear program, it is clear that the US has, up till now, had no interest in stopping the Iranian dictators, that parade as religious, from getting the: ”bomb”.
If any pressure can be brought on the USA executive branch it is by the public demanding action, not from a shutting down of free speech. The discourse on the cost of inaction is not hurtful and may be helpful.
I hope I was respectful in disagreeing with you…
Yeah well I’m no intelligence expert etc…..but this much is clear.
Iran’s nuclear programme is not a confined entity that can be neutralized with 1 surgical strike and destroying the nuclear facilities doesn’t make the problem go away.
Prediction: A great nation will fall.
Iran has a clear, declared intent to destroy Isreal the nation and without nuclear weapons cannot affect their intent.
Thus for Isreal circumstances dictate that to survive, Iran the nation will need be destroyed…..without nuclear weapons Isreal lacks that capability.
Interesting times….hence my Delphic prediction…..
Israel attacks Iran. Iran attacks the GCC. The US is committed to defend the GCC, and does what it can to defend the GCC from air and missile attacks. Thus, the US would be at war, alone, against Iran without any allies besides the GCC. The Iranians keep shooting missiles from hardened silos at the GCC. Insurers drop coverage for the Gulf; oil goes to $300/bbl. The US decides to escalate by taking out Iran’s air defenses, air force, air bases and command-and-control. The US is unable to shut Iran down completely because it fears a huge land war in a populous country. The US establishes a no-fly/no-rocket zone over Iran. The US is stuck in another no-exit war. Even the nitwits on Obama’s NSC can figure this out. Israel cannot attack Iran because the United States won’t permit it. Israel going to war without the US would be comical. Israel has no airbases in the region, no long-range heavy bombers, limited refueling capability, no naval assets, and very limited munitions. Does Israel have the capability of destroying Iran’s air defenses, airbases, air force and tactical communications? Maybe a few small fighter-bombers attempt to drop a bunch of conventional bombs on Natanz, Qum and Teheran. Israel is alone, at war with a much bigger country, and seriously pissing off the GCC, the EU and the US. This will never happen!
If you gathered all the pundits who predicted specifically and correctly Israel’s attacks on the Osirak reactor and the Syrian al-Kibar facility, you could easily fill a small envelope and leave a little extra room for explanatory notes. Israel has been able to keep its counsel and will probably do so again.
In 2008 I was thinking that an ideal time for an Israeli attack on Iran would have been right after the November election, with a friendly US regime still in place but with no opportunity for Israel to disrupt US politics. I’ll never be paid as a prognosticator, I guess, but I continue to think it is likely that the Israelis will be carefully monitoring the American political scene, weighing carefully how their actions will affect it, and comparing the probable reactions of Obama with those of Romney, should he take the lead.
No way the US should get directly involved. We let North Korea and Pakistan get nukes, and they are much greater threats to US than Iran.
Iran may be a greater threat to Israel than N Korea & Pakistan, but not to the US – And Israel is NOT our 51st state.
If bombing Iran is to be done, it will have to be Israel that does it. Before the election is best, cuz neither candidate can afford, politically, to offend the Likud-American community. US will give non-direct support, such as intelligence, defensive missile shields, and UN Resolutions, but we will NOT do the bombing, or give Israel the desired bunker-busters.
Although North Korea also is posing a real threat to the USA but the radical Islamic regimes form the greatest threat to the United States and to the world as well. You was attacked in your own home by “Islamists” not Koreans, by “Saudis.”
Yes, Pakistan is a hotbed of al-Qaeda and terrorists while Saudi Arabia is the main source of their ideology… and that Islamic regime in Tehran who called YOU in the “Great Satan”. Ayatollah Khomeini who has declared war on the United States since he vowed in 1979 to combat the satanic influence on the earth! So neither Iran, nor Pakistan nor any another evil Islamic regime have the right to possess the Bomb.
Please, do not forget the neutral opportunists “Russians and Chinese” and their Latin close allies, including “Venezuela’s Chavez.” They are struggling strongly to destroy your Greatness. They are your geographic enemies, all of them form a real threat to the USA and its interests and also to international security.
Israel is the most loyal ally to you ever…Israel always doing the dirty deed instead of you…and is not surprising that you today ask Israel to do that alone. You should be proud you have a great allies on the surface of the earth such as Israelis!!!
If you want the answers look at previous histories and mother nature as it could be your best teachers even as nothing can be hidden from the God of our fathers!
The fist and foremost responsibility of Bibi (or any other Israeli Prime Minster) is to protect Jewish people from harm. If he is therefore convinced that the time is up he MUST act and take out crazy mullas.
Now everyday there are more and more intelligence comes out proving the Islamic regime’s role in the recent terrorist plots and acts in the region including the recent ones in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq etc. Not to be surprised by it all. But the tragedy of all of this is the stupidity, incompetence of our World leaders to do something meaningful about it.
Just this past couple of days both Ashton and Ban Ki-Moon again along with Paneta for the zillionth of times “condemned” the barbaric regime’s anti Israel’s remarks.. Hahaha it is laughable really. Who do they think they fool and for how long? They condemn one day and beg for dialogue the next day!!!
I bet you the ayatollahs can come and defaecate on the face of Obama, Ashton, Merkel, Cameron, Hollande and the rest of the morons, and they would all go: Yes we hear you, can we go now and sit down for a nice chat????
It is total incompetence, and submission on the part of the free world. And the ayatollahs know it all too well!!! They are street smart and know too well that all is just bark with no bite!
Only Bibi has the guts, but unfortunately he is alone, and the public better said herd opinions not on his side.
What to do? Only as Michael says so eloquently we can just wait and see what happens! When it happens then we know!
Democracy or Theocracy? A sort of contrast.
A historical path.
The war is imminent. The war is coming; the war is in process of approaching. Evil never destroy without the war. The Evil’s Tehran regime never annihilate without a war. Tehran’s regime without the most powerful invasion never can be erasing of the earth. This filthy blood drinker’s regime, without a nuclear strike on its head to change the Tehran city to ash, never can demolish, mullah’s regime and Iranians evil black dark filthy culture, never can be tear down without a shattering war, a shattering war that would be able depart all their countries components, a war that can kill and exterminate Iranians millions by millions, otherwise they will searching for vengeance and revenge and this satanic spin, never come to end. Iranians never have come into the road of goodness, they’d always thought of themselves power, their evil, Iranians always wanted to force slave other nations under their harming and evil, they always had said “we want all the nations come under our staff flag”. Iranians never count on the value of humanity, the value and worth of human’s evolutionary brain. Iranians from the first steps of their cursed filthy history, slaughtered and massacred the mankind’s first of their own nation, and then the second, of the region neighbors. Iranians always invaded by many conquerors and shattered and their race changed by invaders, but their filthy damn satanic black culture never changed, the pyramid of despotism and tyrannical culture. Iranians always thought about themselves power, they always thought and imagine that they are powerful, but conquers prove them that you don’t know what really power is, and how power can use and manipulate. Power is not a pyramidical structure , that sacrifice the people one by one and million by million for and favor of a tyrant by use the theocratic false logic tool, but power is a democratic pragmatic pluralism, that ruler sacrifice himself for the weakest people of his nation. The main essence core difference between the theocratic tyrannical Persian culture in contrast and verses against democratic pluralism pragmatic secular and terrestrial Grecians that now is in progress and constant in western culture and their countries in this age. When, just one man like Archimedes saved his city with his mathematical brain by making the best defensive weapons about 2700 years ago, easily their terrestrial culture can brightly brilliance against black dark anti humanity pyramidical despotism. Democracy always won and defeated false theocracy. A culture which invented cathode ray tube and transistors and microprocessors, and numerous terrestrial inventions, the heritage and legacy of Greece philosophers, Archimedes, Pythagoras and many more numerous secular philosopher culture followers. The tyrannical theocratic pyramid was belonging to Babylonian, Sumerian, Assyrian, and Pharaonic. It’s dead, D-E-A-D. It belongs to history not belong to 21’centry. But Iranians never found this fact, not only in the subject of politic and foreign affairs, but in science and even religion. Iranians think about science to buy and import it! By selling the crude oil, petrodollars! Petrodollars can bring us power, science, economy, politic because we can buy proxies and slave them for ourselves in region countries, with the deception of religious publicity and Shiite game show! Shiite show is our best slavery deception. When Evil, masquerade itself by the Shiite appearance, can be so much worse than directly harming others. Satan always shows itself in deceptive appearance to deceive the humans for doing Evil. Now imagine this deceptive culture, this satanic evil do will to have nukes!
The attack is on the go, it is a progressive process that inevitably will happen. This repetition always repeated continuously in Iran’s history. This is the main indexical Iranian culture, repetition. Despotic stupidity pyramidical repetition. Which will give the Iranian’s country to *uck! Exactly like before and past! Had they something except historical stupidity repetition?! Retrospect stupidity. Asinine despotic pyramidical structure which lead the country to destruction.
The war is on. It’s been on since February, 1979. We’re acting as if our strategy were rope-a-dope.