It’s the War, Stupid, Not the Nukes
There is no sign that our leaders understand this or, if they do, care to do anything to win. Rare is the national figure, Democrat or Republican, in or out of the government, who speaks the well-documented truths about Iran (they just talk about nukes). The president himself continues to seek a deal with Khamenei; that is the clear meaning of President Obama’s plea to “give diplomacy more time.” And Khamenei gives him hope. The recent announcement that one of the American hostages, the Marine (Hekmati) recently condemned to death for espionage, will be retried, is a coded message to the White House: we’re going to make you look good. Khamenei is quite capable of making little cosmetic changes in the nuclear policy (letting IAEA into some sites previously declared off limits, once the damning evidence has been sanitized), or even promising to do “everything in his power” to facilitate a peaceful American retreat from Afghanistan. These gestures would likely take place during the summer, during the political conventions.
If such things do happen, they would give Khamenei more time to crush the opposition in Syria, kill more of his critics in Iran, increase his sway over the new Islamic Republics in gestation in Egypt and Libya, shore up his ally Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, and continue whatever he’s doing on nukes. In response, the president would promise to continue to lecture the Israelis on the importance of patience, demonize those of us who dare call attention to the existence of the real war, and campaign as a brilliant peace maker.
Can you imagine the effect of a Marine hostage appearing on stage with the president at the Democrat Convention?
A real deal — not likely to happen — would require Iran to terminate its support for terror, cease its involvement in the Syrian civil war, end the shipment of dangerous materiel to anti-American governments in South America, and, yes, shut down the nuclear weapons program.
But we can’t even begin to talk about such things so long as the “debate” is all about nukes. Nukes are important because a nuclear Iran would be able to kill even more Americans. But they are not the main point. They’re a fanciful distraction from the life-and-death war that has been waged against us for decades.
I agree with the Washington Post when it says that regime change in Tehran is the only reliable way to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons project.
Even that is not reliable, but if it’s a friendly (sane) regime and they have nukes, better than now. In any case I agree (?) that regime change is the goal of any attack/incursion.
With all the same evidence in place (except the nuke test), Bush footballed Iran, why should we be surprised that Obama would?
Yeah. Bush also “footballed” on “entitlement reform” because there was NO ONE in the Democrat caucus, and too few in the Republican caucus, to even try to lift the burden.
The Democrats reclaimed control of Congress and the presidency by bashing Bush over the head with Iraq. They pandered to the war-weariness of the American people — a war-weariness that had been methodically stoked by the Left-wing media throughout the Iraq operation.
How was he supposed to pull out our other fist against Iran? It had ceased to be an option. Democrat obstruction of yet another popularly-supported U.S. military action had once more won the day by the middle of Bush’s second term. They won. The NYT, LAT, Wapo, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, PBS, NPR, and all their local affiliate drones … won. Bush lost. They won. And America’s Finest were left in the field to clean up for the jaded machinations of the liberal media, and for OUR cowardice and moral weakness. And they are still there sacrificing and dying for us, long after the yellow ribbons have been tossed in the trash.
But go ahead. Blame Bush. I remember. And there was a time, not so long ago, when most Americans vowed NEVER to forget.
I wasn’t really blaming Bush as much as I was whining that he didn’t treat Iran as enemies, since they have been engaged in a silent war on the US for the past 25 years.
Why did he go to Iraq first?
The answers were/are in Iran.
I don’t blame Bush for everything but he sure was a disappointment and now Obama will turn out to be a tragedy.
There’s precedence, no? GOP fell for this trick once before.
Democrat leadership abandoned their commitments to Vietnam, leaving the war in GOP hands.
They then mercilessly flogged the so-called war-mongering GOP — and walked away with an election.
The rivers of blood had begun to coagulate in Vietnam by the time Carter was inaugurated.
President Obama hasn’t been so lucky. He’s had to play the role of Nixon and Ford.
His unique touch has been to redefine victory
as the death of one of AQ’s important leaders and a restoration of the status quo ante bellum.
If only a restoration were possible. As it is, U.S. wins are being handed back to our enemies
in a region that’s now far more volatile — enemies who can and will continue to strike us and our allies,
especially now that they are ecstatically claiming a divinely-ordained, tactical victory over the U.S.
Pity, too. Iraq, A’stan, and Georgia are nice in the spring, and convenient for travel onward.
Stuxnet might be a very good reason why Bush didn’t do anything (except unleash stuxnet on the Iranians setting back there program by years and allowing our intelligence agencies to monitor their activities in real time)
“Ben Dover” Obama is president of the United States.
Perhaps the vital question is, can America make it until Romney or some other Republican is sworn is as president in 2013. It seems like this Iran “nuke” problem has been festering for many years, so could we simply wait another ten months? Of course, the truth is a state of war has existed between Iran and the USA since 1979, as you continue to remind us.
With this latest Nork “bombshell” news, perhaps it will become too well known to be ignored, even by the pacifist BHO and his advisors.
In any case, the next year should be very interesting, with so many salient “acts” seeming to be coming to a climax at about the same time.
Something is going to happen! Or, rather, some human(s) are going to make choices from their high positions(s) of power, which will send unknowable reverberations in markets and societies. Bet on it! Buy gold.
Ripple onslaught—here it comes!
Mr. Ledeen,
All events and their consequences would have to be re-calculated post-nuclear. External intervention, invasion, coup, full scale civil war, or deterrence, the question is: Does the fact that Iran possesses a nuclear capacity make the action more or less likely to occur, and if it does occur, does it make the regime more or less dangerous to the world, to the United States or its allies, and to the Iranian people?
The answer in all cases is that the action becomes more dangerous and less likely to occur. This is the reason why the regime is seeking the capability. There are things the Iranian people may do now, that will become impossible when the regime gets the bomb. There are things the US and Israel may do now, that become impossible once the regime goes nuclear.
There is simply no way to remove the nuclear issue from any of the difficult issues facing us in regard to Iran. You have suggested for years, and I have agreed with you for years, that the Iranian people were our best strategy. Unfortunately it may already be too late. The things that might have been done, should have been done, were not done. What is left may only be the inevitable, tragic, consequences
Were I a Muslim psychopath, I’d buy myself some rusty tankers or container ships and fit them to launch any reasonably serviceable missle I had that could chunk a nuclear warhead a couple hundred miles. Then the minute I made, stole, or bought the necessary nukes, I’d put them on my missles on my rust buckets and put them out there amongst the thousands of similar ships plying the World’s seas. If you’re smart and rich enough to build or buy nukes, you can have some kid reprogram the ship ID system to make your ship look like anything to prying eyes. Then one day, they’d show up off the US coasts and the World would be a very different place in a few minutes.
There really is no need to nuke Israel; without the US, Israel falls to the Arabs conventionally, and the only part of the Middle East the Arabs haven’t despoiled falls into their hands in habitable condition. No Democrat, and especially not the Communist in Chief, would just hit the button and turn Iran into a sheet of glass. We’d have to have an official inquiry with the Iranians represented by the best the ACLU can serve up, and then we’d decide it wasn’t fair to kill a few million “innocent” Iranians just because they’d killed a few million Americans, after all, we’re “little Eichmanns” and we deserve it.
We’re falling for head fake after head fake; it ain’t the Israelis the Iranians want: it’s us.
you are half right in MHO. Just as Hezbollah and hamas are proxies of the iranians,the Iranians are the proxies of the Russkies who are encouraging the mullahs, who think the Russians have their back.Don’t be comforted by Putin’s troubles,it’s all a charade anyway. The generals run the kremlin. God forbid your scenario happens, the sino-russian alliance will be waiting to jump into the breach. Russia also stands to benefit economically with increased oil revenues.
I won’t go as far as proxy; more the enemy of my enemy is my friend – for the moment. The Russians are infidels and the ‘Stans are very unsettled; the Russians have enough problems already with radical Muslims. The Russians toyed with Persia as a way to poke at the British but never tried very hard to hold it even in their most imperialistic days. They even walked away when we and the Brits very openly staged a coup against their guy. They forgot their old lessons in dealing with Muslims which led to their Afghanistan misadventure, though I believe they would have pacified it had we not so staunchly supported the resistance – something we now have plenty of reason to regret. I think the Russian experience contrasted with our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan shows us that no Moslem country can come within the sphere of influence of a non-Moslem country and remain Moslem. The Russians ruthlessly suppressed the civil authority of Islam in the ‘Stans and managed to hold them. We foolish Americans tried to “respect” Islam and made a bigger mess than we walked into.
I think the Iranians already have nukes and already have a delivery system with the necessary range; they’re just waiting until after the election. An attack on Israel would almost certainly elect a Republican who would almost certainly let slip the dogs of war. Why not go for the brass ring and decapitate the West with an attack on the US? If Obama is President, he won’t do anything and if he has been defeated, strike before the Republican takes over. If I can game it out, so can they.
Container ship rolling into NYC harbor was always my first guess. The Israelis would not hesitate to respond, but a weak and immoral POTUS, who ereryone in the world recognizes Obama is, will hesitate and not grok what has occurred.
Good point, and one reason that the “retaliation” argument that people use to argue in favor of letting Iran get nuclear weapons is invalid.
Do you think we could be more successful with regime change in Iran than in Iraq and Afghanistan? Is it feasible? Also, does anyone know if the current generation of tactical nuclear devices (B61-11) are able to penetrate the ground deep enough reach and destroy Iran’s underground nuclear site? If so, can the blast be contained? Is this what Israel and the Obama administration have in mind? I don’t see any of these issues being discussed in the MSM, so I would appreciate any info you might have. Thanks.
There is no just thing as nuke buncher buster that will destory the buncher without destorying the surround area than it will be than dirty nucleat blast, There is no just thing as than clean nuclear weapon(all fusion bomb have than atomic bomb to get the fusion started. Plus the new nucker site in Iran are thousand’s of feet underground in hightly populate area.
Pounding the drums of war is not working–there is a solitary bunny drummer whose batteries are running out
Because–
1/ Iran does not want war with the USA
2/ Our NATO allies do not want war with Iran
3/ The US Military and Intelligence Community do not want war with Iran
4/ American taxpayers and voters do not want war with Iran
5/ China, Russia and India do not want America to go to war with Iran
Yet the lonely Energizer Bunny drummer plays on–sad
I realize that facts mean nothing to you; Iran has been at war with the US since 1979. Very interesting the way you write in #4 and you claim to write on behalf of all Americans; and #5 you represent China, Russia and India! Can any man afford such arrogance; and you post that rubbish on a site like this? I conclude that you are an Iranian spy disinformation operative; It also shows in your screen name.Victor or the opposite which is…
Your history is incorrect. The U.S. has been at war with Iran since 1953.
Yet another war the U.S. never properly constitutionally declared, of course.
I don’t know how people expect to “spread peace through war” in Iran when they can’t even do it in Afghanistan after 10 years.
and i don’t know how you haven’t been sent back to grade school for remedial reading.
A personal attack. No surprise.
What happened in 1953, I wonder? Sounds like something readers might want to do an internet search about.
Islam has been at war with non-Moslems since the time of Mohamamed’s departure from Medina.
Wes,
While CIA often claims to turn water into wine, reality is occasionally less interesting,
and sometimes even mundane — as, for instance, events of 1953.
But I beg you, please don’t let the mullahs know.
It’s better that they continue to cultivate a blind faith in CIA-funded, Hollywood movies.
Always better if we can keep their paranoia at a shrill pitch.
Keep ‘em worried, I say, about our ability to know which mullahs are regular,
and which require more bran in their diet, or whether it was CIA or Mossad
that caused the wheat harvest to come in 10% below expectations.
Keeping ‘em spooked is not only loads of fun,
it’s also in the nation’s interest.
Just think how we benefited from dear Saddam’s and his senior commanders’ lengthy discussions
of the Protocols, as they sought to determine the best defense against U.S. armor.
For those like ourselves grounded in reality,
I’m sure you’ll agree that the FOIA-ed CIA docs from 1953
are an important source for this coup that never was.
As for the conspiracy minded, when they trot out CIA’s cold-war perfidy,
and whine, “Well, what about that!?” … I’ve found argument seldom helps,
especially when they’re off their lithium.
Often, the best response is simply to ask this single question in return:
“But it’s right for the Soviets to have helped overthrow the Shah in 1979?”
Careful, though: Remember how Yajnavalkya with a single question made
Vidaghda Sakalya’s head explode in the Brhadaranyake Upanisad.
You are way out of line the person who you are attacking list many valid point. It it well know that Bush prejury himseelf about Iraq haveing WMD.
You really ought to see about getting your money back from that English as a second language class. Or, maybe you’re just an idiot.
Last time I looked you cannot perjury yourseelf ( your words) unless you are under oath in a court proceeding. I wonder when President Bush was being deposed or was on trial. He acted on information that was given to him and thougth to be credible. As we have found small stashes of WMD’s and equiptment to produce nuclear material. I believe he has been validated .
Mr Victor, the fanatic Islamic regime in Iran is NOT just pose an threat to its neighbors or to Israel and America, rather, it’s a very dangerous on entire the world, because Iran was trying to develop intercontinental missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads that also capable to reach the USA…and today is developing a nuclear weapon.
So, dear Sir! NOT only the Israelis and the Americans whom are highly concerned about Iran’s nuclear weapons and about the Mullahs’s hollow threats…please see here “the serious warnings by the PM of the Great Britain, Mr. David Cameron, and his Secret Intelligence Service and the National Security office.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2111307/Iran-trying-build-nuclear-missiles-capable-hitting-London-Cameron-warns-MPs.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
I am a taxpayer, and I want war with Iran.
Only Israel wants war with Iran.
But only if they can get the USA to do it for them.
The primary target of Iran’s war is Israel. Iran wants to destroy not only Israel but all its citizens–Jewish, Muslim, and Christian.
http://www.jochnowitz.net/Essays/AVirtualDialog.html
And as we all ought to know, think of “moderate” President Rafsanjani, who said, in the annual Al-Quds (Jerusalem) sermon given on December 14, 2001, said that if one day the world of Islam comes to possess nuclear weapons, Israel could be destroyed. Rafsanjani said that the use of a nuclear bomb against Israel would leave nothing standing, but that retaliation, no matter how severe, would merely do damage to the world of Islam (reported in MEMRI Special Dispatch Series No. 325).
Former President Ali Akhbar Rafsanjani, in the annual Al-Quds (Jerusalem) sermon given on December 14, 2001, said that if one day the world of Islam comes to possess nuclear weapons, Israel could be destroyed. Rafsanjani said that the use of a nuclear bomb against Israel would leave nothing standing, but that retaliation, no matter how severe, would merely do damage to the world of Islam (reported in MEMRI Special Dispatch Series No. 325).
Iran’s primary target is Israel. That’s what jihadists care about.
http://www.jochnowitz.net/Essays/AVirtualDialog.html
I keep wondering: ‘Remember the plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington? If it had been “successful,” it would have killed and maimed many Americans.’ Am I naive, or isn’t this an “act of war”?
I think the unspoken narrative is that the plot was a keystone cops affair, something to be laughed at and off. But really? if it had succeeded what would we be saying? If we had a different president, say Harry Truman, what would HE by saying … and what would he be doing?
We’re in the wrong here. We are at war … no matter how “silly” the attack might appear, these folks mean to do us harm. Being smug is no defense …
Have no fear, Dear Leader has a Peace Prize. He’ll surely know what to do. And it will definitely be in the best interest of the country. Probably not our country, but hey. The burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together. Under his plan everyone will have some skin in the game. And everything will be faaaaair.
GOOOOOOOOBAMA!
Are people really talking about regime change in Iran? Really? After the disaster that was Iraq and is Afghanistan?
The replacements are no better than the people we replaced. How exactly are is Karzai’s side better than the Taliban? They put raped women in jail until they marry their rapist. That is something Americans should be dying for?
And the sad thing is, the “Arab Spring” was really simply them catching up to the Iranian Revolution of ’79. They don’t want more freedom from a vaguely westernized dictator, they want Islamism and Sharia Law. It’s even happening in Turkey, only without revolution, just by democracy.
The only solution is to quit poking a hornet’s nest and get out of the middle east. Let them fight among themselves (or not). It’s not our business. Drill for oil here at home. Work on missile defense, and fighter planes that aren’t pieces of junk (ie, something better than the F-35)
Starting another future war is not the answer…
Please stop with your logic and common sense. It has no place among “small government conservatives” who can’t go five minutes without bombing something.
Another war ?
It’s all the same war, and Iran launched against us in 1979. They’ve been doing the best they can against us with the limited resources they have at hand. These resources are about to get much better. For them.
Kissinger and key members of the US Intelligence Community want joint talks with Iran, China, India, Pakistan and Russia about the future of Afghanistan.
None of those states wants a narco-terrorist state on their border or near border.
Afghanistan now produces more than 80% of the worlds illegal heroin.
America has common interests with Iran–we should build upon those interests.
If, say, KSA wants to attack Iran then they are on their own
–we will hold their coat.
Americas interest have moved on from the ME we are now focused upon the western Pacific and our domestic economy.
China and India are becoming the main actors in the Gulf and ME because they need the oil–we do not.
China and India will have a very different approach to the tribal/religious/territorial disputes in the ME–the US has moved on.
There is nothing more instructive than deciphering the rantings of an Iranian propaganda disinformation agent: named victor as in the opposite of…therefore I look forward to your next disinformation piece which will no doubt use a screen name of jumbled letters.
How come your not the spokesman for: Iran, Nato, China, India, US intelligence, and all the American people any more like you were in post number 7?
Napalm the poppy fields in afcrapistan; they have no defense. I would say use agent orange, but they will sell the heroin with the chemicals on/in it.
No need to napalm the poppy fields.
Just introduce Japanese beetles. I doubt that they have an enemy — natural or otherwise — in Afghanistan.
Might also be interesting to test the new poppy-specific mycoherbicides.
The downside to poppy eradication is the suffering and death this will cause in Iran, which has the highest rates of opium addiction in the world — 1/17 adults is not just a user, but a regular user. Thirty-years with an ayatollah’s cold fingers on your neck will do that to a man.
When discussing Iran most people ignore the elephant in the room which is Shia Islam and about 15% of the worlds Muslims follow this sect . This is the branch of the Cult which Iranians practice the other sect being Sunni Islam which is based in Sordid Saudi. The Shia and the Sunnis are devout enemies and each declare the other to be Apostates. Which apart from exploding the myth of Islam having 1.5 billion adherents also shows Islams hypocrisy when they conveniently ignore this when they brag. What is going on in Syria is a proxy Sunni/Shia war part of a conflict that has raged sometimes hot sometimes cold for 1400 years. But what is really of concern with the Shia is that they WANT Armageddon because their sect is convinced that this will bring the return of the Hidden Imam and the ultimate victory of Shia Islam over the whole world. So a Nuclear war is not a deterrent to Iran its a hoped for conclusion. The Sunnis of course also want to dominate the whole world but in a less bloodthirsty way, by deceit and corruption if possible, and only by force if they are overwhelmingly stronger.
President Obama in his recent meeting assured Prime Minister Netanyahu that he has his back and his support for Israel is unshakeable as it is the only island of stability in the region. President Jimmy Carter muttered the same exact words to the Shah in his 1977 visit to Tehran. Bibi, watch your six o’clock. If President Obama cared a lick for the Iranian people and Erez Israel he would have meaningfully supported the Iranian uprising of 2009 so we wouldn’t be here today wondering when the Islamic Republic will actually have nuclear weapons and will they use them against Israel and others. Wouldn’t that have been the ideal form of preemption? If President Obama had any sympathy for the Jewish people would he have chosen Prof. Derrick Bell, a known antisemite, as his role model at Harvard as we were informed by the spirit of that good man, Andrew Breitbart, today? What I still don’t understand is knowing all this you still have hardcore supporters of Mr. Obama in such people as Soros, Emmanuel, Axelrod, Maher, Boxer and and and and….I have heard of self hating Jews but, really??? Maybe they are secret members of Naturei Karta?
And thus the Fermi paradox is resolved.
DID OBAMA INVITE IRAN TO JOIN HIS REELECTION TEAM?
In one of his poorest and feeblest press conferences to date it seems that the Great Appeaser and Campaigner in Chief welcomed nuclear, terrorist, genocidal Iran to join David Axlerod and his Chicago reelection team. In his carefully calculated and poltically worded answers Obama I believe signaled to Iran’s leaders that unless they come to the negotiating table and work out a deal (however meaningless and deceptive) the drum beating, warmongering anti-mullah Republicans could come to power, invade Iran and topple their regime-which they certainly fear given that the last Republican administration invaded next door Iraq. Just one day after his meeting with Bibi Netanyahu (the West’s new Winston Churchill) Obama assured the vicious violent murdering mullahs that he had no intention of using military force to stop their illegal and dangerous nuclear weapons program; he also assured them that he’d do his best to restrain Israel from such an attack-meaning they’d be better off with another four years of his presidency than with the alternative (which they certainly understand).
But the blindness and stupidity get worse. As a pre-engagement concession to the Iranians Obama said that he wouldn’t intervene militarily in neighboring Syria-Iran’s most important ally-like he did in Libya. In other words, Obama is willing to endure Assad’s brutal and deadly crackdown of anti-regime forces for the sake of useless negotiations with the mullahs, and the appearance of progress in denuclearizing them.
The model that Obama likely has in mind is the current nuclear moratorium charade with North Korea (see). In exchange for much needed food supplies the Norks have agreed to suspend long range ballistic missile and nuke testing together with their uranium enrichment program (as a first step to nowhere). In exchange for lifting some punishing sanctions Obama is hoping before election day for similar concessions from Iran which he can wave around as a foreign policy success to fool the electorate-and Iran following the Norks will probably oblige him.
Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 every US administration has enabled the Khomenists in their ideological quest to become the hegemon of the Middle East and a great world power. And this administration is proving itself to be the greatest enabler of Iranian power of them all.
In short, the worst, most feckless and politically driven president in our history is willing to tolerate mass slaughter in Syria, and the apocalyptic mullahs building the ultimate weapon of terror and death, in order to extend his failed, reckless and dangerous presidency into a second disastrous term. This is leadership from the bowels hell that our enemies can believe in.
Click my name to read the rest of this article.
VERY SIMPLY, IRANIANS CONTROL THE KEY TO THE 2012 ELECTION.
High oil prices = Obama loses.
(BTW, the Iranians taking American hostages showed Carter’s incompetence and had a lot to do w/his losing to Reagan.)
Israel holds the same key.
Mike wants to weaken or destroy the Iranian regime.
Mike also wants to assure or help quicken the fall of Assad in Syria.
I say that these two objectives are a cross purposes.
A longer civil war in Syrian weakens Iran by requiring the mullahs to deploy resources to Syria. The more the mullahs do that, the worse it is for them when Assad eventually falls.
Is there a reality to the Iranian threat or not? At least as a reflection of msm apparently not at all. It seems the emphasis cues are made at the White House and the msm follow along with that narrative – which now appears to be nothing to see here, move along – when the time comes we’ll get them bad guys. Does this all sound weird to anyone, weird as in disconnected and distracted? It makes me feel those in charge are way,way over their heads.
A pathetically stupid US President and his political allies are Iran’s best friends.
“It is a commonplace that Bush took us to war on the basis of an intelligence assessment that turned out to be false. Ergo — another commonplace — no president is going to war on the basis of a future intelligence assessment.”
Possibly, but let’s discuss what we DO know, at least what is said in the public arena. What we do know about the Iranians is that there are too many targets, in too many underground locations, that would make bombing Iran practical, let alone successful. The Iranians know this and they also know that both Israel and the United States have large, powerful air firces. Which is why the Iranians built most of their nuclear program either underground or inside mountains, making them very hard to destroy even with our much vaunted “bunker-buster” bombs. So we could probably set back Iran’s nuclear program, but we would be no means destroy it.
Stack that against how Iran would respond to a bombing attack. Hesbollah would probably unleash thousands of missiles at Israel from Southern Lebanon. Hamas may attack and Egypt may also tear up the Campt David Treaty, given that they are now run by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists. Another terribly dangerous scenario that nobody seems to be talking about is that Assad in Syria also has one of the largest stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons in the world. What if Assad, who has absolutely nothing to lose at this point, gives some of these weapons to Iran or simply fires some of them off against Israel himself? How would Israel respond to an attack like this? If Iran does not have actual nuclear weaons, it certainly has enough materials for God knows how many dirty bombs that could be launched, fired, dropped, or simply exploded on to major cities (it wouldn’t be hard to just blow up a truck armed with a dirty bomb in a major western European city, possibly even the United States). And we have not even talked about the effect closing the Straits of Hormuz or mining the Persian Gulf would have on the world’s economies.
So you want to stack all that against a bombing mission that probably won’t do what you want it to do? Our best and at this point only good option still seems to be regime change in Iran. We CAN do this. All we would need is a President willing to try it. Another Iranian “election” is coming up and the Iranian people are ripe for revolution. The only way of destroying the mullahs is from within, not from outside the country. Have every major western country, along with the Saudis and Israel, do everything in their power to arm, finance, and train rebel groups inside of Iran. This can work. It worked when we had a more powerful CIA in the 1960s and there is no reason to believe that it can’t work now. This could be our one last chance to get what we want without destroying part of the world. I think it’s about time we take it.
i don’t want to bomb iran. as u know…
Michael – Are you going to canvas your Iranian contacts and weigh in on the story that Ayatollah Khamenei is an alum of Patrice Lumumba U (http://pdmi.org/2012/02/observer-reporter-khamenei-graduate-of-moscows-patrice-lumumba-university/ (the former USSR’s agent-of-influence training center))?
Purim Samayach.
It need not be true, only plausible, that PJM is absolutely chock full o’ nuts in order for its war mongering panoply to be discounted as Hollywood Insider hoopla.
Why aren’t China and Russia worried about Iran? Why don’t China and Russia have 900 bases in 100+ countries? Aren’t they worried about their national security?
If other countries did around the world what the U.S. does, we’d stop them.
China needs Iranian oil and is willing to pay for it in gold.
Russia has a sizable Muslim population and it needs Iranian cooperation to keep it in check. For example, you have never heard Iran call for Muslims w/in Russia (or Chechnya) to revolt — and you never will.
Regime change is desirable, but that doesn’t mean we should be the ones to make it happen. Any help we give to the Resistance will only give the Islamists credibility to attract insurgents to make life impossible for the new government. Furthermore, we will be held responsible for any consequence of the new regime that falls short of Utopia.
Therefore, any support we give to the Resistance should be covert and via proxy countries. When it happens, no American President should take credit for it.
I admire your love for the Iranian people, Michael. Truly you are empathic. But please don’t say that nukes are not part of the issue; or, place yourself in Israel and ask yourself to make that separation. We can not.
tks, i understand that Israel has different concerns. but i’m trying to weigh in on American policy, as I have for a long time…and btw my empathy goes primarily to American victims of the evil Iranian regime, and then to the Iranian people
We have different priorities, to be sure. Of course I am sorry for all the Americans killed by the regime there as well. I was amazed, not surprised, by Obama’s stance in 2009 on the summer revolt in Iran. I was also appalled by the silence of American people in the face of that.
People here are outraged at Obama for oil, maybe for domestic political things – Bill Maher or the Harvard stuff – but they don’t seem aroused by his passivity on Iran. Should the people of Iran rise up and throw off the regime – I mean by that succeed at it – I will be delighted. At this point I’m guessing that such a change will actually be precipitated (if at all) by external/foreign military action against the regime. As it has for a while, it seems to me that you place a lot of faith in the ability of individuals and masses in Iran to overthrow the regime. Perhaps you will be proved right in the end..
i have always said that if we don’t support revolution in Iran, we’ll end by fighting the regime on the ground…hope to be wrong.
Mr Ledeen you ask for regime change in Iran and you give for reason the constant war Iran is waging on the USA since 1979.You had 8 years with GW Bush to take the necessary steps to neutralize once for all the nazi-theocratic regime in Teheran. Nothing serious or constructive was done. Now it’s really too late , Iran is running the ultimates yards for several nukes ( according to Israel they have already four nuclear heads ) and enough enriched uranium to create another dozen nuclear heads and they have the ICBM to ship them way afar( remember they successfully sent a satellite into orbit). So with BHO an hopeless shameful play going on and on. Romney does not look as a New Winston Churchill, therefore the USA are pretty passive this year and the next 4 years even if Romney is president. So all the burden of neutralizing Iran remains on the tiny Israel who would like to act but is constrained by BHO arms embargo and political pressure to stay defenseless. actually the only possibility to upset ONCE FOR ALL ( or at least for 4-5 years period ) this terrible mess is for Israel to play its ultimate card as first card; i.e to send one hundred nuclear heads all over the iranian territory hitting all the nuclear centers, the regime centers of powers, the main infrastructures , the oil fields. etc,,Such an attack would bring exactly what ou have asked ; areal regime change because the present regime of Iran would be crushed .Would you be able to accept such a strategy ? Would you justify it the day after ? How your country would react ?
I agree with Ladeen that the war against us has been raging in any form iran can take advantage of to kill US citizens but…. It is all about the NUKES! I do not care about us being mistaken on iraq (just like all of western intelligence services), for me it is about nothing else. Go after the nukes yesterday!!
Everyone should know that to get to the nukes and at least bury them, would mean a 10-20 day pre-campaign of taking out all of the iranian radar sites, anti-arcraft artillery positions and many other key military and missile installations. That in and of itself will bring about regime change most likely. If not we can sweeten the pot by downing government buildings, state run media outlets, key mosques, and the mullahs personal residences (as many as we can find). All those bombers should also be dropping good old fashion PAPER propaganda leaflets too!
I think a lot of the military commanders are too cute X 2. Just destroy the b*stards and work out the menutia later! (which is code for keep the oil flowing).
What we need to remember is that we want to fight the war we want to fight. The threat is real, but preventive action is not the preferred option.
Rather the goal is to have Iran do something so beastly that its total and complete destruction has overwhelming support. To do that the time must ripen to their ruin. The world has to see that Iran has a legitimate government with vast popular support. The further part is that no desire for reconstruction on the part of the winners will be done. Victory must be total and cheap.
Michael – Are you going to canvas your Iranian contacts and weigh in on the story that Ayatollah Khamenei is an alum of Patrice Lumumba U (http://pdmi.org/2012/02/observer-reporter-khamenei-graduate-of-moscows-patrice-lumumba-university/ (the former USSR’s agent-of-influence training center) )?
Purim Samayach.
i’m planning on posting the Russian video that says that.
C’mon man! (like in the ESPN NFL bloopers videos). All you need to know about a peaceful revolution in Iran is to look at Syria and mulptiply it by 10.
Brutal Juice Brutal. Mr. Ledeen you are far more knowledgeable than I but hoping for a peaceful regime change is akin to the chances of winning the Powerball jackpot.
that’s what everyone told us about the Soviet Union…until it imploded.
Mike,
Hope is not a plan and Putin is now President for life. But, in the slim chance that the people of Iran can pull it off I’ll propose a toast in your honor.
Knob Creek, please…
Dr. Ledeen,
A peaceful implosion of the Iranian regime would be the most desirable of all outcomes. But wouldn’t that require an Ayatollah Gorbachev (a real reformer) as Iran’s Supremo?
nobody knows. life is full of surprises. nobody expected the Soviet Empire to implode…
Civilized people will hope for a peaceful implosion. But it’s rather hard to see with apocalyptic supremacists like Khamenei and Ahmad in power.
REMINDER: Iran has never attacked the USA, and does not pose a threat to the USA.
what does it mean, anyway, “Death to America!”?
Meaningless words meant to gain the support of a few rabid warmongers.
Just like when John McCain gave a speach saying “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran!”
Or when Santorum brags that one of his first acts as President would be to bomb Iran.
So the point still stands. Iran has never attacked the USA and poses absolutely no threat to the USA.
come to Walter Reed Hospital one day and meet the soldiers who have been blown up by IRanian IEDs, or go to Arlington Cemetery and see all the graves of Americans killed by the Iranian regime. and read all the reports and court decisions condemning Iranian complicity in 9/11…you can’t peddle that nonsense to me.
Dear Sir! I would like to inform you that NOT only Iranians who were murdered or are murdering Americans. In fact the terror masters in the region overwhelmingly have participated in increase of the hatred in the Middle East toward the United States and Israel…”Iranians, Syrians, Saudis, Saddam regime, Libyans, Yemenis, Sudanese and Somalis”, they all worked accurately to coordinate the Jihad against the United States “outside and inside the country”. They have waged war against United States in the region, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they sponsored and sponsoring terrorist assaults against United States and its allies from “Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen, and from Afghanistan to Palestine and to Somalia.”
For instance many Americans have been killed more than twenty years ago in Lebanon. and in mid 90s in the city of Khobar in Arabia, and recently in Iraq and Afghanistan by the terrorists of who armed and trained and funded by Iranian and Syrian regime, and by the extremist fundamentalists in Saudi Arabia who granted infernal fatwas are knowingly from Saudi government to jihad against so-called “infidels.” The Iranian’s Hezbollah was training insurgents to use explosives to do assaults and acts of war against the United States.
All evil regimes above knowingly have backed terrorist groups…they sent suicide bombers across their borders to slaughter Americans…They created the extremist radicals groups as “Hizbollah, Al-Mahdi army “Al-Sader” and Islamic Jihad, and they supports most all the martyrdom other groups as “Hamas, Al-Aqsa, Al-Qaeda, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Al-Sader and Fateh.” Arafat was the first foreign leader was invited to Tehran after overthrow of the Shah.
I hope you reconsider your blind views toward evil regimes, and do NOT absolve neither Iranians nor any other despotic regime of evil intent. just see what the bloody Syrian regime do in the right of its own people!? I will NEVER absolve them from the Americans blood, and NEVER absolves the Europeans from the bloods of millions of Jews including the most anti-Semites “Poles”.
NO one wants war, but if you want to get out of their way, they do NOT want to get out of your way…furthermore, they do NOT want to give up possession of WMD!? Ahmadinejad recently claimed that the West has already begun to surrender, and he gloated that “final victory…is near.” I think that, the using of Hard-power it’s the good solution for dealing with these evil regimes…God bless…
One good sign is that the formerly useless idiots in the West no longer believe the fairy tale about Iran’s nuclear program being all about generating electricity and medical isotopes.
Iran’s ideology is imperialist. Iran wants its “Local domination” to be a monopoly over Middle East oil. This would give Iran tremendous power over the West. This is why the Arab states are so frightened of Iran. Israel may be secondary. Hating Israel may merely be a tool for rallying the support of the Arabs.
If military action turns out to be needed against Iran, then trying to install democracy and manage the population is probably a bad idea. Instead of nation-building, I suggest we wreck the place. It’s easier. Impoverish Iran by seizing the oil fields and knocking down their major nuclear and defense facilities. The oil fields are not heavily populated. Any conflict would be a conventional land war, which the US can win more easily.
I find it interesting that the IAEA has no intentional security warnings regarding Iran. In fact if you search the IAEA site for Iran, the only bits you find are about how the program they have is in compliance with international safety standards.
Lets not leave out the war being raised on the citisens of Iran too.These people hjave been living in terror for many years,worrying as to wether they will be the next ones arrested,tortured thrown into a hell of a prison family members killed and tortured etc and in the majority of the cases none of them did anything wrong at all but because someone said someone said this or that or the other thing,boom! their snatched up and put thru hell and in again,most cases end up disappearing forever meaning they were and are excecuted
The Soviet Union did not implode; it made a strategic retreat and the KGB runs the show and the geopolitical strategies of the Soviet era continued under Yeltsin and now Putin. That’s why Russia is allied with Chavez, Syria, Iran etc. And while Iran is the operational command post of the war Michael describes so well, Moscow remains the strategic command center. That’s why Iran doesn’t support Chechnya and why Russia supports the radical Muslims. Primakov at the 26 Party Congress said liberation could be achieved through Islam. And since the 1989 Gorbachev rapprochement with China and the military pact Yeltsin made with China, we are facing Russia with China working together. Regime change is imperative but it requires recognizing Russia/China are not simply reluctant due to economics to take on Iran but that Iran is their client.