JJA: “Not entirely. I think that the Israelis are still hoping to convince the Americans to take serious action against the Iranian nuclear project. On the other hand, it’s clear that Israel has been acting—they are almost certainly involved in Stuxnet and other acts of sabotage (no doubt there are things we don’t know about)—and it’s easy to imagine circumstances in which they would have to do more, regardless of American policy. But they’d much rather we did it, or did it in tandem with them. I don’t think they’ll give up on that until D Day. But if they have no alternative, they’ll move. They have to.”
ML: “So if the Israelis became convinced the Iranians were on the verge of acquiring a nuclear warhead that they could put on a missile, they’d have to act?”
JJA: “Maybe even before that point. They’re saying that they might have to strike before key elements of the Iranian project get moved deep underground or inside a mountain, or some such.”
ML: “Yes, I’ve read that stuff, but I don’t believe it.”
JJA: “Why not?”
ML: “Because I don’t believe that they are planning to conduct that big Hollywood spectacular bombing run. I wouldn’t do it that way, if I were in their sandals.”
JJA: “Good thinking. Why put all those pilots at risk?”
ML: “Exactly. If they can organize assassinations in daylight in downtown Tehran, and speed off on their motorcycles, they can certainly take their motorcycles to the sites of the centrifuges or missile assemblies.”
JJA: “Or work with various opposition groups to do that. I agree.”
ML: “And there are lots of opposition groups, and plenty of people within the regime who would cooperate. Just look at what’s been going on inside the Pretorian, I mean Revolutionary Guards Corps…”
A whiff of smoke came out of the Ouija board. I couldn’t tell if that was cigarette smoke or burning insulation.
JJA: “Yeah. Four top officers died in 4 days! Shades of Stalin…”
I thought, if I were in Angleton’s condition I’d be careful about using words like ‘shades,’ but now there was static so I had to speed up before I lost him.
ML: “And what about the Americans? What if the president figures it would be good for him to deliver a blow to the Iranians…just him, no Israelis involved.”
JJA: “Can you imagine that?”
ML: “He’d need a direct provocation, but there are people in Washington — serious people, I might add, not the usual conspiratorial crowd — who think he’s doing that right now. They think he’s sending warships into the Gulf, hoping for an Iranian attack, so he can blast them.”
JJA: “Seems far fetched. He’s invested so much in trying to make a deal with them.”
It was getting difficult to understand him, with all the crackling. And now there was more smoke, unmistakably insulation…
ML: “Do you know if that’s still going on? It’s hard to keep track of it all. There have been secret contacts all along.”
JJA: “Someone from the State Department met…(static) early November…(loud crackling) told him to go to hell…”
And he was gone. I should have asked earlier about secret talks. Oh, well, next time. I should get the thing rewired in a couple of weeks.
I don’t know. I know that if someone makes a serious mistake this time, a lot of us will no longer need Ouija boards to talk with friends from the past…
PS But I guess that Al Gore would be all in favor of a nice Nuclear Winter…
““So if the Israelis became convinced the Iranians were on the verge of acquiring a nuclear warhead that they could put on a missile, they’d have to act?”
Sure, I hope the intel on this will be a lot better than the intel we had at the start of the second Gulf War with Saddam Hussein, when everybody in the world swore that he had WMDs. Remember that? Everybody knew, they just knew, that it was a “slam-dunk” and that we would find all sorts of stuff. What did we find? Not much, or at least not enough to make it worth invading a country. Call me skeptical, but we could be being played by the Israelis to act when we don’t have to. Continued covert operations could set back the Iranians for many years. Why not pursue that? It’s cheaper, easier, and would probably get better results than bombing them and starting a war that could drag in the entire world. No, I’m very skeptical these days when people say (even the Israelis) that something is absolutely going to happen. We are going to need a lot more proof before we get caught in yet another screw up like we did in Iraq. Oh, and who paid the brunt for that mistake? That’s right, we did, not the Israelis.
Proof. We’re going to need a lot more of it before one bomber leaves the ground.
yes, everyone–includinjg folks like Mubarrak and Putin–believed Saddam had WMDs. and perhaps he did…for sure, we either did not know where they were, or failed to find out where they ended up. Just trying to suggest that it is not certain lthat Saddam did NOT have them…
Actually, I was wondering if even Saddam himself thought he was “just a little while longer” from having WMD’s. I can certainly see his scientists misleading him if they were having difficulties, and not wanting to be the messenger telling him he did not and wasn’t going to have them any time soon.
Regarding who knew what, when and why, read “Saddam’s Delusions: The View from the Inside”, by Woods, Lacey and Murray in May/June, 2006, issue of Foreign Affairs. This is a summary of findings by USJFCOM Iraqi Perspectives Project. Inside it was a house of mirrors.
“Just trying to suggest that it is not certain that Saddam did NOT have them…”
I think the possibility must be entertained. The nature of their WMD program must take into account Russian involvement in it. The transfer of parts of it, including documentary evidence, into Syria or elsewhere should not be totally dismissed. The mess, chaos, and alleged absence that David Kay et al found was just as descriptive of some places in the former Soviet Union after the fall. I think if the Iraqis had any real, deliverable WMDs the Russians advisors would have known precisely where they were and what had to be done with them.
Remember Putin mocking the notion of Saddam sitting on a pile of WMDS during a joint news conference with Blair? Putin’s confidence/cockiness reflected a man who knew that either they (Russians) had taken care of the problem, i.e., spirited them away or that there weren’t any there in the first place.
One can also add Russia’s past work with the Syrians as a factor to delay the fall of the regime as long as possible, if not delay it altogether.
There was also the 500 tons of yellow cake uranium, which we did find in Iraq, and had to keep it under wraps for nearly four years until we could find a safe place to send it. If we let the information out, Iran and everyone else would have tried to get their hands on it through the terrorist insurgency. It was to George Bush’s credit that he thought taking the blame for no WMDs was a better deal for the world than letting his enemies find out he had found the building block for them. Canada purchased the yellow cake for their nuclear energy facilities in 2007. And this was even after Valerie Plame’s useless husband had been sent to find the source of the uranium and had turned that into a smear job from the left. Now we have what we have and our entire Republic is being taken down to prop up the lies the left told about George Bush during the 2004 election cycle. And while they were at it, using a typical Communist strategy, they made up the slogan “Bush lied, kids died”, and they repeat it every chance they get to this day. Bush made many mistakes in his prosecution of that war, the gravest was going after the wrong enemy. He should have taken it to Iran immediately and then taken out Saddam only after Saddam lent support to Iran, which wasn’t really likely. Now the Communist Obama has a problem he has never even understood.
OK, now I get it.
“Just trying to suggest that it is not certain lthat Saddam did NOT have them…”
That’s a great way to justify invading another country.
Why don’t you just come out and say that you want an invasion of Iran?
That way I’ll know you’re not only nuts but dangerous, as well.
because I don’t want an invasion of Iran. i’ve said it hundreds of times. you’d be surprised how much you can learn if you actually read.
Fair enough, one insult deserves another. When you say that Iran is only bluffing and Israel is not, that Israel wants us as an ally, and that sanctions are ineffective, it sure sounds like beating the war drums to me, but, no, you never actually used the word “invasion”. As a matter of fact, having gone back and read the article a second time, it became clear that it really doesn’t say much at all, except stuff that we already knew.
nobody forced you to show up here.
Snap-e-tom (this was the only way I could reply to you: by clicking on the same comment you replied to):
Snap-e-tom, Ledeen DID in fact give us some “new” information — in terms of analysis. And the most interesting bit was the “rebuttal” of the “Hollywood invasion” version of an Israeli attack — which is as far as anyone thinks or talks about when it comes to how Israel might hit Iran’s nuclear sites.
Ledeen most interestingly laid out the quite “doable” continuation of the logistical side of these recent magnet bombs, namely motorcycles — the point being that “jet-planes from afar” need not necessarily be used. Think of a campaign of Israeli and counter-regime forces hitting nuclear from motorcycles writ large. That is to say, he adroitly points out that Israel does not necessarily need to load up a 200+ sortie of planes and drones and cover the skies of Iran (or, maybe they’ll send a few, one day, and few another day).
Ledeen’s bottom line point is that Israel has the freedom to continue the “war” or “series of attacks” at the slow simmer at which they’ve no doubt been doing or arranging other hits and/or explosions. He effectively paints a picture of Israel simply repeating the same tactics, but on a larger scale, which frankly strikes me as a damn smart idea (meaning, of course, that it’s an idea the Israelis have no doubt considered very carefully!) – it’s just us couch-spy-readers, that cannot think beyond the last strike, and Ledeen has shown us one way in which to do this.
Give Ledeen credit where it’s due. I mean do you, Snap-e-tom, even know who JJA was?
A little too snappy tommie. Whether or not the Bush admin was wise in including WMD as a justification for taking out Saddam is another issue. Assuming that the Iraq WMD issue was defintively settled by the WMD study groups is simply wrong. They were useful and professionally done, but certain facts force any thorough analysis to entertain a degree of uncetainity about whether there were WMD in Iraq. Two most prominent facts being: Iraq possessed and used WMDs before; and the USSR/Russian role in mentoring, monitoring of Iraq WMD programs and their possibly removing key components of whatever the Iraqis might have been tempted to integrate and deploy against our troops.
I would have preferred the Bush admin to have simply used Iraq support of terrorism as the main justification for Iraq, but critics got way too bent out of shape over the WMD issue, and apparantly stil do.
I just did. See the above. We already blew our chance to clean up the Middle East. But the best result you can hope for there would be nearly as dismal as things are now. They would still be dominated by Islam over there, which means this mess will continue for a long time to come.
Dear Sir! I think, the most dangerous thing is when you leave the world into the hands of the megalomania leaders, and their great defenders “Russians and Chinese”. Right?!
By the way, to be fair, for a long time reading the writings of Dr. Ledeen, I have NEVER read that he has urged or justified invading any country. Of course he calling continuously and strongly for supporting of freedom revolutions in the region, especially in “Iran”, and to bring down ALL evil regimes in the region, because Dr. Ledeen is one of the great Americans who have supported the successful freedom revolutions in Middle Europe. The bring sunrise of freedom into the lives of millions of oppressed people does NOT mean an invasion!!! Pathetic!
If Syria falls we may find some.
The horrible mistake is when you believe and credit those lies and rumors “that the war was not legal and that Iraq had no WMD.”
First and foremost, today the world has started to take human rights seriously and is attempting democratic uprisings from Ukraine to the Middle East that is only thanks to the US when She has brought Iraq’s brutal police state to an end. Today, the people pay their lives for their freedom, you see this, in Syria, Iran, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Egypt”.
Saddam’s regime was a REAL THREAT to his neighbors and to International Security and on its own people…his secret relation with terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda…He was pursuing development of the biological and chemical weapons secretly…Saddam was internationally known to possess WMD, as “chemical and biological weapon” where used it savagely in 80s against his own people such as “genocide, expulsions and lethal gassing.” So at least the WMD WAS EXISTED IN IRaq.
The country was ruled by terror and horror. Saddam treated his own people savagely. Mass executions, the liquidation of opponents secretly. tens of thousands of victims who Saddam executed them by shooting, hanging and throwing them live into holes with explosives. Whole the world knows that Saddam was openly defying the inspections system. Expelled the international inspectors, because his regime was hiding pernicious thing…Saddam defied you and challenged the International community when he had expelled the UN inspectors and today Ahmedijejad behaves likewise.
You need a more proof. More than what?! more than what the Mullahs are doing today, where they are pursuing development of Nuclear Program. A proof more than the pounding speeches and hatred declarations from the mullahs warning Jews and the USA continually and calling to destruct the Great Satan and to wipe Israel off the map. More than what?! more than that war they had waged on you more than 31 years, and the result is thousands of dead Americans, including Iraq, that is since the Ayatollah Khomeini had been declared the war on you in 1979.
In fact the removing of Saddam was a great act by the USA…the greatest act will be when you crush the mullahs regime and their proxies in Arab world “the bloody regime in Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Sadr in Iraq”. The USA and its close allies must wipe them out and clean the surface of the earth from their evils, including the great supporters and financiers for the global Islamic fascism “the Saudi Wahhabis in Riyadh.”
Furthermore, you have to EXPEL the blind organization (aka UN) from your territories, it’s an organization of defending the megalomania leaders from Latin America to Asia. and you should stop waste the US taxpayer money to this evil organization.
The world really is a better place without Saddam in it. It will be much better without the rest of Pro-evil regimes and without their followers of the terrorists. JUST DO IT. SOONER RATHER THAN LATER!!!
How much assistance is Israel providing to the Syrian opposition? My guess is that one of the easiest and most effective ways to weaken Iran is for civil war to grow in Syria.
Obama’s polls down. The October surprise. Obama wins re-election. Yes, he would.
Well, if we have a nuclear winter that would solve the global warming crowds problem.
Could you please recommend the best books on James Jesus Angleton. Would love to read the definitive bio….Thanks, Loral
the best account i’ve read is the chapter on him in Robin Winks’ “Cloak and Gown” a book about Yale and CIA…
Droll and fascinating. Love the format, fun to read. What a fascinating guy, never heard of him, now I have. Thanks.
Seems to me that in a country that big it shouldn’t be too difficult to hide its nuke labs. I’m sure the surviving scientists are on high alert to avoid driving down public streets, and their I.T. staff are updating their anti-virus software. Plus there’s that knotty problem of labs that are so far underground that even our bunker busters could not get to them. I guess what I’m asking is, how the hell do you stop them short of an invasion?
“Plus there’s that knotty problem of labs that are so far underground that even our bunker busters could not get to them. I guess what I’m asking is, how the hell do you stop them short of an invasion?”
My first thought is why go to the trouble of “getting” to them? Being deep underground has it’s own set of problems. Target the entrances and ventilation systems and see how long they can last. Bring the mountain down on them and see how long it takes to dig them back out again. When they do, rinse and repeat. If tactical nukes are used this would also involve cleaning up the fallout before they can even begin to dig out. Target their “secret” missile launch facilities so they can’t get anything off the ground. Here in the States that would be a problem because any attack of this type would have to take out the whole center of our country but Iran is hardly bigger than one of our States. It shouldn’t take much effort at all.
It would be interesting to see the reaction from the Russians though I doubt they would want to go to war with us over Iran. I’m sure they would scream bloody murder in the UN but that would probably be about it. I would guess the reaction from the rest of the Mid East nations would be pretty much the same in the UN but would get pretty quiet on the ground over there.
Thanks for your reply. What I was trying to get at was some understanding of exactly how this is supposed to be accomplished. The author lays out a good case for why. Am I wrong to assume that the solutions you suggest for getting at the underground labs (block the vents, etc) would require a land invasion?
blocking air-vents, etc. do not require a land invasion. Also – big building require lots of power – either power-lines going in, or onsite power generators (which themselves require fuel and lots of air). This is where extremely accurate bombs and UAVs (tactical innovations) have changed strategy – if one can simply “send in the drones”, lose some % of them, and simply seal up offending facilities, it makes attacking much less politically costly.
In the same way a tactical innovation (kamikazes) appreciably changed WW2 strategy in the Pacific.
Michael, I have been saying the same things for the past few weeks. I look forward to meeting with you in the next few weeks.
very good coffee downstairs…
Al Gore would be in favor of nuclear winter, because then he could blame the unexpected premature end of global warming on that, and not on his having been wildly mistaken.
JJA: “Good thinking. Why put all those pilots at risk?”
Interesting session Ledeen. But I have to call you on this one point above. Pilot risk? Perish the thought. Couple of facts –
* Israel has the largest UAV in operation of any country in the world — Eitan. Now why build a large UAV for recon role? That just provides a ever larger signature for detection. Size matters in that role, unless that is not its intended primary purpose. Pull out the surveillance gear and place a tac nuke and the real purpose is known. Oh and the Eitan can reach any point in Iran.
* Israel has pulled the stops on several other military programs to focus on the Eitan.
* Israel has a tactful nod from the Sauds to use their airspace in the even that Israel deems it necessary to attack Iran.
The assault will be pilotless.
Recommended: James Jesus Angleton: Was He Right by Edward Jay Epstein. (e book)
Prepare for the Worst
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W6KJRIums4&feature=player_embedded
Probably there would be no need for war, if the West stops IRI activities more effectively. As evident by relationship between the West and particularly the European countries with murderer Khomeinists over the last 33 years, it seems (at least in the eyes of most Iranians) that the West doesn’t want to get rid of IRI and wants only to play with it and use it as bargaining chip in negotiation with each other. Otherwise, US would close the IRI Interests Section offices in DC, and Europe will do the same with IRI Embassies. This will stop or at least make it hard for IRI lobbyists to freely travel back and forth to Iran to intimidate any freedom fighters in the West. At the same time, IRI tourism would not be able to benefit from the West. This action would put tremendous pressure of IRI murderers, since their families might not be able to travel to London, Paris, Toronto, and Orange County to spend stolen or blood monies they have. In Addition, if IRI satellite propaganda to the West and Arab countries are shut down, the West would benefit a lot in her struggle with murderer Khomeinsts. Until then, Iranian people will assume these are all political gamesmanship to score points for the West benefits alone and not for freeing people of Iran of Islamists.
Kourosh do you think that the tougher sanctions have convinced people inside IRan that the West now does wish to get rid of IRI?
I don’t believe the tougher sanctions imposed on the regime by this administration is meant for the downfall of the regime. This became more a concrete goal or plan when Obama came today and announced that his plan is to solve the Iran’s issue diplomatically by showing to the Iranian regime (AKA the Islamic regime) that it is not to their benefit pursuing their nuclear program.
This statement from Obama watered down all the hopes we started to have in the West’s wish to get rid of the regime.
The plan is just to put pressure till the regime stops its nuclear program and be good boys. Obama just wants to bargain with the regime by telling them you be good boys and we will not interfere in your business, do whatever you want with your citizens that is not our business…Now this is Obama’s diplomacy plainly spoken by nobody but himself.
This is what Obama is doing, nothing more.
Iranians need to rely only on themselves and not expect anything in terms of real support from Obama.
….”that it is not to their benefit pursuing their nuclear program”
Mr. Obama and his (incompetent) advisers have still not understood that the western “cost/benefit” thinking is an incomprehensible concept in a (muslim) world where everything depends on Allah. Someone should send him some history-books.
If the Chinese and Russians would cooperate more, the sanctions would be much more likely to work and war could be avoided.
What do the Chinese and Russians hope to gain by helping Iran go nuclear? If we can answer that we can probably solve the problem. Be sure to ask JJA next time you guys chat.
China and Russia gain a lot by letting Iran go nuclear. First is dimunition of US influence in the Middle East. The Gulf states, first observed Obama dump its allies in the Middle East and then use inaction to allow a nuclear Iran. Saudi Arabia and the other states would rightly see the US an unreliable ally. A nuclear Iran could provide cover for the Assad regime in Syria to survive, and create a new market from Hezbollah for Soviet and Chinese weapons
http://armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030
“nice long lasting war, and sell lots of weapons”…exactly as I told congress in 1991…
The US has had its fleet off the coast of Iran to defend the Iranian dictators, that parade as religious, against all comers: including Israel.
Since 1979 the US policy toward Iran has been to keep the dictators that parade as religious in power at all cost.
That charade may be changing now that the US has brought about dictators that parade as religious in Egypt; who can take the place of Iran as trouble maker (weapons sales promoter); so perhaps Iran goes now that Egypt can assume their role.
I find Mr Ledeen a good source of factoids…
Wow, wow, wow, was that depressing! Why bother letting ANY American kid sit there and have his “left foot” or his “right arm” be blown off at this point if that is what the situation is? Either all in (which is clearly not going to happen with this POTUS) or all out… NOW! Let the Afghans and the Pashtuns and their “dancing boy” culture all deteriorate even further — but on their own.
Dear Mr Ledeen,
My analysis that I have been posting on your site has again proved correct; I still say I am the top intelligece analyst alive today…and I am a nobody open source armchair analyst…
This is Naftali Bennett’s email to Eileen and I:
Dear Eileen & Dick,
I hope all is well with you two. As you may recall, I served as Netanyahu’s Chief of Staff a few years back — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naftali_Bennett — I love reading your daily columns and watching the great vids!
I’m writing to you because Israelis are more concerned now than ever about Iran’s race to acquire a nuclear bomb, and Obama’s lack of resolve in stopping it from happening. It’s become clear that America won’t stop Iran, but the real concern is that Obama is doing everything to prevent Israel from protecting itself.
Last week’s NYT editorial represents Obama’s thinking, and I know our government is in a very tough spot. So, what am I asking of you: please help step up the pressure on President Obama in any way possible. We’re nearing the last moment.
Israel’s request is simple: if President Obama isn’t going to stop Iran, he must let Israel do the job!
Regarding the timing of the strike, Israel cannot wait until weaponization. By that time it will be hard to track down the location of the enriched uranium, warhead, or delivery system. It must prevent Iran from acquiring enough weapons grade uraniaum to start bulding devices. An that is NOW!
Iran’s uraninum enrichment facilities not only presents the biggest target but gives Israel the best chance to set back the program. If the strike is successful, Iran will need to begin a new by rebuilding its hardened facilities and centrifuges – which will no doubt take years.
Iranian retaliation threats can be managed. It is not like we do not have experience with Iran trying to close down the Strait of Hormuz. Those interested should read the Tanker Wars. Iran will back down once it is confronted by overwhelming force.
It is also not in Iran’s interest – assuming it is a rational actor – to retaliate. Iranian action will invite a U.S. and or Israeli response that may target political, military, and economic targets.
As long as Iran does not have nuclear weapons it has a bad hand.