ML: “I’d love to know your sources for that kind of information.”
JJA: “You kidding? Look at all the Americans killed by the cartels in Mexico alone. They’re here with me now…”
ML: “Ah. Good point. And what about the claim—made by the Congressional Research Service’s Kenneth Katzman—that the Quds Force only recruits true believers?”
JJA: “Take the full quote, please:
“Iran does not use non-Muslim groups or people who are not trusted members or associates of the Quds force,” Katzman said. “Iran does not blow up buildings in Washington that invites retaliation against the Iranian homeland.”
He’s saying that Quds uses non-Muslims who are trusted, if I’ve parsed it correctly. And that last sentence is really quite remarkable, as it betrays not only a lack of imagination about just what would have happened if the plot succeeded, but also apparent refusal to believe the 9/11 Commission’s strong conviction that there was an Iranian involvement in that plot.”
ML: “Yeah, they did blow up a building in Washington on 9/11, didn’t they?”
JJA: “I’ve got some eyewitnesses here, we have discussed it quite a bit.”
At which point there was a sudden burst of static.
ML: “And what about the lack of imagination?”
JJA: “Suppose we hadn’t penetrated the conspiracy, and there was a car bomb in front of a restaurant, killing the Saudi, along with all those poor souls unlucky enough to be eating there. Number one, how would we even know the target, let alone the killer?”
ML: “And suppose we actually tracked it back to a member of a drug cartel, the Zetas, or whatever. Why would we assume that they were out to get an Arab diplomat?”
JJA: “Exactly my point. Think it through; maybe it wasn’t all that amateurish, you know?”
ML: “So we’re gonna have to wait for the trial, right?”
JJA: “(static) …investigative journalists could do their job…”
ML: “Oh, hang on a minute, don’t run off, I forgot to ask you about the big press conference. Lots of folks were baffled by it. Some—the usual frantic suspects—think it’s the prelude to an American or Israeli attack on the nuclear sites. Anything to it?”
JJA: “(static, coughing)…How many times have we heard that one? Obama wants to bomb Iran? (static) Not even Bush…”
Smoke was coming out of the Ouija board.
JJA: “Where’s that creep Hersh anyway? How many times…”
And he was gone.
You probably know that Seymour Hersh was Angleton’s nemesis, which might explain the smoke.
Michael,
The meme that the Iranians would never do such a thing and if they did do such a thing would never be such amateurs as to be caught at it, must come from the infernal regions. Perhaps the shade of “JJA” could do a bit of UC work there and track it down.
Here are a few comments:
1. Are these “experts” on complex “under-cover operation (UCO)” or “covert operations” claiming that most such operations are actually flawless or go off as planned? Does anyone even remotely familiar with such things believe that? I believe that if one conducts a post-mortem of any successful complex UCO one would find numerous “pucker-factor “moments* and moments where the operators smack themselves in the forehead and say “you dumb-*ss”. One of numerous examples would be the Lillehammer Affair where a Mossad assassination program targeting the Black September terrorist group identified, surveilled, target and killed the Black September Chief of Operations (COO) who was hiding out in Lillehammer, Norway … except it wasn’t the COO but an innocent waiter. To make matters worse, the Mossad operators were apprehended by Norwegian authorities, the Mossad’s operations in Europe were exposed and Israel was embarrassed. Are we supposed to believe that Mossad is less competent than the IRGC?
2. The reason why DEA and FBI maintain extensive lineups of sources and under-cover operators is because this practice works. Such sources and operators are often approached by organized crime figures and other “sophisticated” criminals who believe the sources and operators to be genuine criminals with whom they can do “business”. That’s how many great criminal cases begin. This is a case of the tried and true systems of two of our great federal law enforcement agencies (DEA and FBI) succeeding in an impressive case.
3. I’ve never dug into academic research on the Holocaust, but I’ve read in popular histories which suggest how difficult it is to come up with the “smoking gun” to show that Hitler ordered the Holocaust. Of course his guilt is quite clear from the totality of the circumstances. My point, of course, is that if some of these “experts” were around in the 1930s and 1940s, they’d be calling the Nazi efforts a “rogue operation”.
Great post Michael. Thanks for what you do.
* It was your friend Reuel Gerecht who once diagnosed CIA ineffectiveness as due to HQ types who can’t stand “diarrhea as a way of life (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2001/07/the-counterterrorist-myth/2263/)”. Of course, such moments are part and parcel of all great UCOs. I memorized this great line as soon as I read it (my comments are not intended to slam some great line intelligence officers who serve with distinction in CIA).
Thanks. Very kind, and very thoughtful. On the Holocaust: the decision was taken, and papers signed in the usual German way, at the Wansee Conference in 1941. A few months ago the Germans gave Netanyahu some of those documents…so the smoking gun is probably now in the excellent Yad Vashem archives in Jerusalem.
Michael,
Thank you for the courtesy of your reply.
I would say that even with respect to the Wannsee Protocol, it is my understanding that the highest Nazi official to attend was Heydrich. The minutes of the conference were written up (by Eichmann) and constitute the Wannseee Protocol. As I said, I’m not an expert, but I have read that only one copy survived in the archives of the various Nazi agencies and there is way to tie Hitler to it.
For the benefit of any trolls and denier-freaks who may read this, the totality of the circumstances case is overwhelming: the Holocaust was the result of the desire, intent and will of Hitler.
certainly there is no doubt about Hitler’s intentions. just read his book, you know? but nobody believed it. see my book…
I’ve read them. The question is, will we ever elect a President and Congress who have read them?
“there is nothing new under the sun/אֵין כָּל חָדָשׁ תַּחַת הַשָּׁמֶשׁ/en kol chadásh táchat hashámesh” (well, almost)– Ecclesiastes 1:9.
The take-home lesson? Whenever evil people say that they intend to do something evil, always take their word for it. Assume that they WILL succeed if nobody stops them, and take responsibility for doing your part to make sure they don’t get away with anything.
yes. just so.
If it weren’t for the DEA and their like the Afghanis would be reduced to selling vegetables. Great? They are a national disaster.
I have always enjoyed Mr. Ledeen’s articles. I would like him to write a piece on his opinion on the events surrounding a US Israeli attack on Iran.
I think I just overheard on Fox that Iran is now demanding an apology from the US over the allegations that we have made against them. I wouldnt be surprised if Obama gave it to them.
Where is Curtis Lemay? I bet ‘Iron Pants’ Lemay could give us a good idea on how to deliver that apology.
not just an apology, they’re asking for money, too. heh.
The arrested Iranian American immigrant may simply have thought up a way of making some money by suggesting (via his Iranian relatives)to the Iranian authorities,a method of employing the drug cartels to carry out such dirty tricks as they might desire.
Develop the scenario how you may after inserting the FBI therein as a consequence of the suspect’s mistaking their man fo a member of the drug gang.
Henceforth it is the FBI who develop the details of the plot until it gets to a dead end ,when they arrest the suspect and disclose the story at a timeconvenient to the Administration.
In a word,it looks awfully like a scam with the suspect as the patsy !
it always fascinates me to see someone take a simple, straightforward event and then complicate it beyond all hope of comprehension. you’ve done a masterful job, thanks.
Adair – meet Occam.
Occam – meet Adair.
There is obviously the simplest explanation:
Is a intergalactic conspiration, so aliens enjoy seeding distrust between humans, thus they make iranians distrust the West, the West distrust the Iranians, the Russian and Chinese distrust America, Europe distrust everybody else, and Israel is distrusted by everybody. So, after the ultimate world war starts, extraterrestrial aliens will take over the world.
I never really doubted the plot was true and that Iran was behind it. Must be something wrong with me. Maybe I’m not subtle and nuanced enough in my thinking. But then, since at least the Russian Revolution the baddest of the bad guys haven’t been very subtle and nuanced in telegraphing their intentions. They have all been pretty obvious if one was paying attention and didn’t over analyze and second guess. They just lied a lot if directly questioned, telling their intended victims and enemies what they wanted to hear at the moment.
The only really big surprise I can think of off the top of my head was Saddam secretly getting rid of his WMDs, not telling anyone, and still wanting everyone to think he had some. That may have been the only time in his life Saddam was subtle and nuanced about anything.
Also, until at least 2013, and probably beyond, Iran and the mullahs have little to fear from the US or the Europeans. Seems obvious they were betting the US would do nothing to seriously harm them even if the plot was successful and their involvement was known. Humiliating the US that way may have even been part of the plan.
I’ve been saying for years that the border is a national security problem, not a mere police matter. The presence of Tehran and their cats-paws in Hezbollah in Mexico, Venezuela, and the border triangle between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay makes it even more so.
BTW, you need to have that Ouija Board looked at; it smokes so much, I think it’s burning oil.
tks spook, there is nothing in this world that frightens me so much as the Iran/Russia/Venezuela et al network. Cuba being part of the et al…
Sure,Hizballah presence in the Tri Border Area (TBA)for decades was the path for two terrorist incidents in Buenos Aires.
I honestly believe that, the US under this administration knows very well that the Islamic regime is dubious and guilty of such plot, it is just that it feels it is totally powerless doing anything about it.
US power is fast diminishing especially under this administration. All thanks to our weakling Obama and his trolls.
Just take a good look in one of the day’s headline news: US is not approving the NATO’s air strikes on the terrorist Syrian regime. Why?
Of course because of the evil triangle of Russia, China and their troll terrorist regime Iran, all threatening against the NATO’s involvement and strike on the Assad regime.
As I have been saying for a long time, Russia, China and even Iran dictate and set the rules, US obeys…
It’s pathetic, sad, scary and totally mad.
2012 cannot come soon enough. Obama needs to go asap.
We need a real President someone who can stand against the Russians and Chinese expansion and dares to stop them at their own turf.
It is an interesting case: calculating what the initial impulse was generated by the Iranians, judging from the collection of gas and other statements that become public.
(I am helping my 7th grade son with his math homework, so I coach him a minute, then think a minute about transfer functions.)
The world makes sense if we place events into context;
The US and Saudi Arabia maintain the Petro Dollar System, in return for US buying mainly from Saudi Arabia the Saudis would purchase Treasuries from US and maintain a Liquid Account in New York, a Bank today called NY CITI – Solutions. There are hundreds of Billions cash in these accounts and are used to bolster the NYSE, overnight Interbank Loan markets, etc, etc. This was arranged by President Nixon, Kissinger, Fed bankers and Saudi Groups in 1971.
Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela, etc, until were buying and selling Petroleum within the Petro Dollar system, creating massive inflows of cash into US coffers and allowing wall street to generate credit markets.
All would have been fine if the USA had not overspent itself and created strain on the system the last 15 or so years. Petroleum buyers began to see their own currencies drop relative to the US Dollar and began avoiding the Petro Dollar system. Either buying with Euro’s, or trading directly between themselves.
As more countries drop the Petro Dollar, more strain will be added, as a result more Derivatives and other dubious instruments created by Wall street to feed the credit machine. It is a vicious cycle that can only end up with the US economy in a depression, and then reboot the economy as in depression of 1930′s.
Saudi groups have been calling shots in geopolitics for decades, the US providing military muscle for whatever Saudi groups decided. The USA has no choice in this matter, the US dollar is backed by Petro Dollar system and subject to whims of Saudi Interests.
It is why nobody raised a stink regarding Saudi terrorists that attacked New York on 9/11, or the Bounty Saudi’s place on Israeli soldiers heads, or the funding of Terrorism by Saudi Arabia.
The Iran, Russia, Venezuela, China trading block, is a threat to the petro dollar, which means a threat to the US Dollar. So the playing field is USA – Saudi – and some of Europe, pitted against the rest of energy producing nations and the rest of Europe.
There is a cold war between these energy groups, and the Iranian plot falls into the middle of it. Killing a Saudi royal member on US soil would disrupt US- Saudi Relations, and thereby give Iran a boost. it fits into the context of Geopolitics and geoeconomics.
What we would really need to see is actual Proof of this, due to nature of evidence presented before Iraqi invasion the burden of proof is now much higher. In any event we cannot jump to conclusions or assume government of Iran is behind this unless and until we are given conclusive evidence that has been vetted by people on all sides.
Obama, the Europeans, the UN, and everybody else knows that the only Arab and Iranian plan for Israel is to utterly destroy Israel and the Jewish People. These guys all know that the peace talks, diplomacy, and all the rest is just window dressing.
The problem is that neither Obama, nor the Europeans, nor the UN, nor anybody else outside of Israel considers that Arab and Iranian genocidal plan to be particularly disturbing. Oh sure, they would all make expressions of regret after Israel and the Jews were gone, but that would just be crocodile tears meaning nothing. In fact, all those liberal progressives would breathe a sigh of relief that Israel, whom they consider to be the cause of most of the world’s troubles, would be off the table once and for all.
The same phenomenon was true during the Holocaust of European Jews. Everyone knew about it and everybody claimed that it was a terrible event and that it was reprehensible, but no one lifted a finger during the Holocaust to try to slow it down, much less prevent it.
The truth is that most Europeans were relieved that all those pesky Jews were gone, and even the American government did nothing the might indicate that the Holocaust bothered them.
The Arabs and the Iranians might experience a bit of indigestion when the Israelis nuke them while going down to destruction. And of course we might discuss the implications to the US and European economies if the entire petroleum structure of the Middle East came to be destroyed. Radioactive oil fields are difficult to rehabilitate. These events probably would incur not crocodile tears but real tears.
Your point about the rest of the world not giving a fig about Israel is well taken though.
As Oliver Stone proved with JFK, there are always those who are willing to lap up lies to fit their world view.
There’s no question, in my view, that Iran under her current government would do something like this. That’s not the issue for me.
Taking the scenic route through a contract to a drug cartel is more questionable. Possibly a consequence of watching too much “Law & Order”? The cartels don’t, in fact, operate with ease and reliable stealth in whatever US city you might want to off the Saudi ambassador in. The likelihood of US law enforcement getting wind of such an enterprise in the District of Columbia was better than 50/50.
But the most questionable thing of all is the Iranian-American go-between from south Texas. Arbabsiar is a character out of a Leslie Nielsen flick. Who would pick him as the agent for taking out an assassination contract with a cartel? I haven’t seen the Qods force look so hapless in any previous situation in which it was implicated. It’s not that the Iranians wouldn’t do this; it’s that is seems to have been done in such a farcical manner.
“The cartels don’t, in fact, operate with ease and reliable stealth in whatever US city you might want to off the Saudi ambassador in.”
Then how do they manage to move so much product?
Dear J.E. Dwyer,
I am a great fan of your writing and analysis, but it’s well documented that intelligence agencies and organized crime groups with formidable public reputations often make stupid mistakes which end up exposing their operations. In addition to the examples which I cited in my comment #1 above, consider the apparent recent CIA kidnapping operation in Italy (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/6503759/US-disappointed-at-Italian-verdict-on-CIA-kidnap.html ).
The theory that the IRGC’s tradecraft was too good for them to have been involved in this caper requires us to believe that the IRGC are better operators than the Mossad, the CIA and the LCN (of the 1970s and 1980s), all of which occasionally screw-up and are exposed.
Rancher’s reply is well put.
v/r,
MarcH