The short-term future of the Iranian regime will most likely be determined by the outcome of the Syrian slaughter. The opposition, or at least some of its components, seem to be getting their hands on weapons. It remains to be seen if they know what to do with them, and whether they can accelerate the rate of defections from the Army, especially at higher levels. But the arrival of weapons has driven the Syrians to deliver a very Iranian-style warning to the West (no doubt suspected of being the source of the rebels’ arms):
Syria’s Grand Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun in a video posted on YouTube, said suicide bombers were present in the United States, France and Britain and ready to strike if Western powers launch a military strike on his country.
“I say this to all of Europe, and I say this to America: We will prepare suicide bombers, who are already in your country, to strike you if you strike Syria or Lebanon. After today, an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth and the initiator is the aggressor.”
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It’s the usual bluster, based on the oft-repeated but manifestly false assumption that their embrace of death will trump our effeminate love of life. We showed the foolishness of that bit of reassuring doctrine when we defeated their death lovers in Iraq and are doing the same in Afghanistan. Yes, they undoubtedly have terror cells in the West, but so did the Soviets. When their doom arrived, the GRU’s teams of saboteurs and assassins did not act against us, and I do not think that the Iranian/Syrian sleepers will embrace martyrdom as their leaders are being dragged into the streets.
Jackson Diehl at the Washington Post has written a very pessimistic piece about the future of the “Arab Spring,” in which he predicts that, a year hence, the Syrians may well wish that we had sent an Army to remove Bashar Assad, as we did next door to Saddam Hussein. Diehl has come to the conclusion that simply sending crowds into the streets does not a revolution make, and that it may well be necessary to use military force to create a viable alternative to the stereotypical Middle Eastern tyranny.
No doubt there are times and places when the use of military power is necessary, but, as I have often argued, if we get to that point in the case of Iran, it will show the failure of Western policy. At the moment, we have only sanctions in our quiver, we have yet to declare that “Khamenei must go,” and we have not told Ahmadinejad to go to hell. If we had supported a successful revolution in Iran, we would almost certainly not be facing armed conflict in Syria today, and we would have a strong voice in the future of Egypt, instead of standing by and pretending to lead with our shrinking rear.
But there is no reason to believe that Obama or any of the others will test the possibility of bringing down the Iranian regime with non-violent methods. Meanwhile, men like Maliki await developments, defending themselves as best they can, hoping that somehow the Iranian and Syrian people do for themselves what a succession of American presidents declined to do.
One will get you ten that they’ll still be waiting and hoping in January, 2012, when the new American president is sworn in. And even then, they will have their doubts. To date, I haven’t heard a Republican candidate call for regime change in Tehran.
(Thumbnail image on PJM homepage by Shutterstock.com.)
I suppose this is as close as a Republican candidate has come to calling for a regime change in Iran. It is an excerpt from a speech by Newt Gingrich to the Republican Jewish Coalition on June 13, 2011:
“We must aggressively confront the growing threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. The existence of the Iranian regime pursuing nuclear weapons and financing terrorism across the globe is a primary threat to the security of the United States, Israel and our allies in the world. The United States must lead the world in an all-out effort to replace the Iranian dictatorship using the diplomatic, economic, information, political, and covert tools President Reagan used to defeat and dismantle the Soviet Empire”
May be naive, depending on your POV, but here it is:
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/herman-cain-interview-on-new-ideas-to-tame-iran-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
Mr. Ledeen, considering the capital flight and oncoming food supply problems in Egypt, and all the other crises, how many of these governments would you call odds-on to still exist sixteen months from now? Will Romney’s “wise men” list influence your opinion of the Rep. candidates? William Martel has a current update to his ’06 “Victory In War”. Would you care to hazard a guess as to the amount of actual access and influence the announced group will have on policy formation? Have you heard about any other candidates consulting similar people? I continue to look forward to your informative columns. GBUSA
i have no idea if that list, or any other, reflects anything other than the campaign’s desire to get endorsements. All candidates consult “experts,” needless to say, as they should.
Seems interesting that the Iraqis never had any problems finding volunteers to fight American troops, but they ARE having a lot of troubles finding volunteers to fight the Iranians. True, a lot of the Shia population in Iraq is probably pro-Iranian (although I don’t know why, because to an Iraqi a Persian is a Persian, so Iran should have very little influence in Iraq). But what about the famous Sunni tribes and fighters? Don’t they hate the Iranians as much as Saddam Hussein did? So why are they NOT fighting the Iranians inside Iraq? And the Kurds have absolutely no love for the Iranians as well, so you have two-thirds of Iraq that hates the Iranians, yet Iran still is able to intimidate Iraq on a very real level. Very strange. Iraq will go nowhere in this world unless it stands on its’ own two feet. If it doesn’t do that, then it certainly will break up into three smaller countries as soon as we leave, which is very soon.
Ah! The good old days… Back when Iran and Iraq were busy killing 1,000,000 or so of each other. I always thought that the policy (if that’s what it was) of having them fight each other was better than one of us having to do it. But, not to worry, they (the Muslems? the Arabs?) will find a way to kill each other in bigger and more vast numbers. They’d better, beacuse it’s the only thing saving us from ourselves…
The US and International Bahai’s are mounting a campaign now against the prosecution of Iranian Bahai’s who have been teaching in the underground schools set up after Bahai’s were thrown out of the national colleges. They have also have been very vocal against the apostasy case against the Christian Pastor sentenced to death.
This a marked departure for the Baha’i Faith which has for many years been extremely conservative in commenting on the ongoing persecutions in the homeland of their faith for fear of retributions. I wish the western world had 1% of their courage.
Our decade of combat in Iraq has yielded us nothing but frustration and grief, and the expenditure of obscene amounts of money. Now that Maliki is swinging towards Iran via Syria…or is it the other way around?….should lead us Americans to see that getting out now is cutting our losses. We’re not leaving with the job “half done”, if we couldn’t “do” the job in a decade, how many more decades will it take? Where is the halfway point? Where does the downward slope of militant Islam within Asia start? How many more billions of our dollars? Most importantly, how many more young American and allied lives will be needed to “finish” this thing?
Our support of an internal revolt leading to internal insurrection leading to the overthrowal of the Iranian regime du jour will have little long lasting benefit to us Americans. The next Islamist regime will, in its turn in time, need to be revolted against also, ad infinitum.
Elsewhere I’ve cited Churchill’s resounding (for those who re-read it carefully) “Iron Curtain” speech, and have cited that address as akin to mentioning a present day Green Curtain with a star, a crescent moon and a palmtree which is best contained and isolated by financial means and our proven off shore, remotely controlled military assets.
The Soviet Empire was contained behind its own Iron Curtain; the Islamist Caliphate-in-waiting can be similiarly restricted, with careful observation of the Islamist cells inside America.
“Restricted”, because we Americans simply don’t have the resources today needed to maintain the cumbersome pipelines and infrastructure for having thousands of our “boots on the ground” in Asia fighting whack-a-mole style for decades more against Islam.
So, let these Muslim/Islamist factions fight their own wars of religious attrition against themselves, we Americans can stand by…..watchfully.
I’ve pasted this here as a bit of History that is constantly overlooked here in the “commentariat blogosphere”…..
“Cyprus was hardly the only territory rife with ethnic tensions that London eventually abandoned in frustration – think of India, Iraq, Palestine, and Sudan –”
The complete context of this bit of pasting is:
“Cyprus on the World Stage
by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online
October 11, 2011
http://www.danielpipes.org/10222/cyprus-on-the-world-stage.”
I note this here in our discussion of America’s very costly decade long involvement in that noxious cauldron called Islamist Asia to point out that there is ample precedent for us to cut our losses and get the h*** out of there.
If an additional example is needed, look up the Sykes-Picot Agreement which entangled the French, also. For those interested in pursuing even a bit more….History…..,a review of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the end-game of the First World War will be clarifying.
….then, dear readers, you’ll have a leg up on those presently trapped in the 140 character Tweedle-Dee-Tweedle-Dum media.
My age is showing, I make no apologies, but some readers here may note that there is a crying need for….perspective….in any mention of Americas “errors”.
Of course it would be nice if the administration knew which side they are on and indeed are they on America’s side.
So.. let me see if I got this correctly, first you say that one of the problems is that the US are leaving a job half done, and that true stability could be achieved only if we go after Iran -which like the Hydra, fighting proxy wars with many heads.
But then you say “The short-term future of the Iranian regime will most likely be determined by the outcome of the Syrian slaughter”.
Being Syria just another Hydra head, I think this is wrong and we should still go after Iran. I am quite sure Iran regime is able (and willing also) to allow Syria to fall, with or without Western help, as long as it keeps the world worried about a thing -anything, other than their nuclear ambitions.
if you read the previous post, you’ll see that i think Syria and Iran are, in essence, a single strategic challenge.
Excellent article Michael. It illustrates a point I have been making for years- The basis of any Democracy is Freedom of Religion. Folks have always responded that as a Jew I would necessarily support that notion, which is true. What they failed to realize is that the various factions of Islam cannot live with each other either and that unless Freedom of Worship is codified in a Constitution no Democracy will survive. That is why, when the US agrees to support Sharia as an official religion in nations where ” nation building ” is the goal, failure will always be the outcome. The question becomes , ” Whose Sharia? “, and the answer is determined by who can muster up the largest mobs and is willing to commit to the greatest violence.
I agree Iran should have been stopped a long time ago, but facts on the ground in the southwest United States show we are at war with Mexico. On many fronts, not just a 20 million person invasion. Therefore, invade Mexico.
The policy to make it hard to buld Nuke power plants has gotten us in the sitution where we have to invade Iraq, and be a defacto member of OPEC. Afanistan does not want their own country, they want tribal Muslim law.
We are spread to thin now, with the American tax payer being robbed to support the global economy when the sociolized housing bubble blew up. Those countries holding the bag should have lost everything. Instead, another crime was commited against America.
It is to late. As long as America does not understand the enemy is Islam, a political/religious system, we can not win in the Middle East. Paying off the Muslim Brotherhood with their own region of economy will only buy time.
….Thank you.
They say they “love death”?
Believe it.
Here’s why: Islamic Sexuality: A Survey of Evil
1389AD, Thanks for mentioning the link: “Islamic Sexuality: A survey of Evil” and thus introducing Ann Barnhardt to us/me. I watched and listened to all the four parts of her brilliant and impressive presentation. It seems that Ann has done well her homework on Islam. In any case, it was an excellent work except for the unnecessary cheap shot at Obama.
The future of the ME hinges on Americans leaving Iraq. If Iran decides to shape Iraq’s future, certainly it will backfire. Iraq defiantly will split up, once it happens the entire ME map will be redrawn. No American president can prevent or control the incoming ME mayhem and bloodshed. Can anyone think Alewite Assad will forever rule majority Sunnis or Erdoğan will ever suppress Turkish Kurds desire for semi or full independents state. Or Hashemite King will continue to rule Jordan. Even Iran itself will not escape from a civil war the Iranian Kurd will defiantly join Turkish or Iraqi Kurds so are the Tajik Turks who will seek some kind of autonomy from Iran.
To this day, I’ve always felt that Syria should have been knocked out when we invaded Iraq. The problems of the middle east would have diminished drastically without the arms and money conduit of the Assad regime originating from Iran.
As for Iran, we missed an opportunity to topple this terrorist government when we failed to support the demonstrations a few years ago. Maybe. However, having done nothing only strengthened the radical Iranian regime.
This will always be a dangerous region of the world as more countries become Islamic radical. Had we supported the Shah back in 1979, much of the world’s woes would not have come to pass. What a lasting legacy of James Earl Carter.
The Iranian regime has powerful friends in the West. The West along with the rest of the world needs Iran’s oil. It is what it is. Obama is spreading/maintaining tyranny rather than liberty. He was and still is silent on Iran, Saudia Arabia and the UAE. Man, the American dream is dying and the Middle Eastern nightmare is carryng on.
If Western powers wanted the Mullahs to be dragged by their greasy beards it could have happened, but they are still in power. The Iranian people are alone pure and simple. It is fXXXig depressing!
No one is calling for regime change in Iran Michael….. except you. And me. But few politicians or leaders in, or outside, the US are willing to stand up for oppressed populations. We should be arming those who would oppose Tyrannical and Theocratic regimes wherever they are…. for their own self protection…. and so, when the time comes, they would have the ability to take their oppressors out.
Amazing to me that Iran is STILL not anywhere on the collective radar screen. Strategically we still see the Middle East as a long series of discrete “flare ups”. It seems to be the official party line even among many who should know better. It’s classic head in the sand denial – plain and simple. Sooner or later we’ll get it, but the longer it takes the more messy it will be.
“Amazing to me that Iran is STILL not anywhere on the collective radar screen.”
Yes. Which suggests that something’s not right, and there is more to the story than denial or politics.
They don’t hate Iran. They hate The Hezbollah Party in Iran. You have to be cleaeer Michael.
It seems to me that the quickest, surest way to send the ME back to the dark ages (along with Russia) is to develop petroleum resources in the West. Recent developments in shale and sands technology and proven reserves are extremely encouraging in that regard. All that remains is to send the Luddites packing in 2012.
“Faster, please” is everybody’s hope but as Fred Brooks wrote in “The Mythical Man Month”, good cooking takes time. Sure you can have an omelet in two minutes but you won’t find it very appealing.
OFF TOPIC
BREAKING ON FOX (no text)
Feds Thwart Iran-Tied Terror Plot against Saudi, Israeli Targets in DC
hoping in January, 2012, when the new American president is sworn in.
Us unsophisticated hillbillies think that’s January 2013.
For a prescription of what type of man we need in the White House, read Dick Cheney’s recent memoirs.
That will clarify the issues the Bush Administration faced and how Colin Power and Condi Rice kicked problems down the road.
Think about that as you look at the candidates for the Republican primary.
John Bolton needs to be our next Secretary of State.
Resoundingly seconded.
I think the date in the last part should be January, 2013. The next presidential election should be in November 2012, with the inauguration about 2 months after that.
To: Michael Ledeem
This is just a technical correction: The “Conservative” presidency will begin January 2013–unfortunately, not 2012. God bless.
“The shape of the Middle East to come” is a great title, and your wise take on the situation in that benighted area of earth, as always, gets to the nub of it all.
Let’s face it—the tribes in charge of that unblessed and backward acreage are stuck in the Middle Ages, at best. Radical Islam is regnant, and how in the world it is going to be possible to get past ALREADY-programmed masses of individuals, as they follow the logic of their from-birth instilled Islamic beliefs?
The rising clashes in Egypt between the Coptic Christians and the hot and bothered Muslims there is just the tip of the iceberg—when something like 90% of Egyptian women have ALREADY had their genitals mutilated, well—
Bret Stephens in the WSJ yesterday told the TRUTH—it’s the war of all against all.
Can it be a coincidence that the believed “glories” of the coming of Obama in 2008 have been dashed by their inevitable mugging by reality, at the same time as the much longer believed “glories” of Islam are also being tested, in every corner of the Middle East?
I’m JUST old enough to remember an at-the-time hot and radical movie being advertised, “I Want to Live!”, from 1958, starring Susan Hayward. Individual by individual, I BELIEVE that in the Middle East AND in the ranks of the Obama-led Democratic Party more and more people are coming to that conclusion.
Life is ever a lesson, and is all about—conversion!
When you realize you are pinching yourself—that is, your problems are self-inflicted, and you are NOT a victim—you simply stop doing that.
It is the arrival of this sanity which is occurring, and which has to be the “wealth” that is spread WAY around!
The LOSERS have to, themselves, come to understand what they are. And, then, win by admitting that they have lost!
Ah, for Islamists, “Better dead than red” sure seems to be the permeating creed, with “red” meaning CIVILIZED!
Last night’s post debate interview with Gingrich in which he clearly calls for regime change in Iran:
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/index.html#/v/1213474017001/post-nh-debate-newt-gingrich/?playlist_id=86925
tks. missed it.
I am going to start fantasizing about a Cain-Gingrich or Gingrich-Cain ticket. One knows how to get the economy going and the other a master of foreign policy. Neither are intimidated by the media and pressures of political correctness as they have amply demonstrated so far. Both are committed to reversing Comrade Obama’s attempt at institutionalizing socialism in a land that is anathema to such elitist tendencies. The restoration of the American karma by removing from office one who has elitist-totalitarian dreams for the country he hates can only be good for these United States and, by extension, for all those people in the world who want to experience the sweet taste of secular freedom sending the powers of evil into the deepest sanctum of Hades. Let us learn a lesson and not allow haters of freedom once again take the reigns of power in this last country which has as its cornerstone the concept of “Good”.
Michael Ledeen; the only columnist I know of who takes the time to interact with his readers. Adds sanity to the commentary. Kudos Sir!
tks, alttho ireally need to spend more time in the gym
Micheal,
I think you better go to CNN, MSNBC, Fox and reader what the commentators are saying. They, the average Joes, as well as Middle East experts are all agreeing this doesn’t make sense, it’s a sham, outside of Iranian mo…..etc clearly all are skeptical…..
yet you have surrounded yourself with a number of commentators who like parrots repeat what you say and believe- thanks God a very very tiny number………and this cycle feeds onto itself..you think people actually believe this plot…………talk about dictators who surround themselves with Yes men and hear what they want to hear…….
break out of your isolation and you’ll hear and see what most people are saying…..
so go watch tv, hediye. you won’t get so upset. but don’t send snarky comments that distort what the readers of this blog think and say. there are plenty of critical comments, as always, which are always welcome and help me think things through.