Iran Attacks
The Iranian regime is attacking on all fronts, thrilled at the downfall of the hated Mubarak, and buoyed by the paralysis of the West. The failure to support democratic revolutions in the Middle East has convinced the mullahs in Tehran that they have no effective opposition, and they are trying to run up the score as fast as they can, on both regional and domestic playing fields.
Last Tuesday, lots of would-be demonstrators turned out in the streets of many Iranian cities, only to find themselves outnumbered by security thugs, both the usual collection of Revolutionary Guards, Basiji, plaincothesmen and women, Lebanese Hezbollah (increasingly an adjunct of the Quds Force) and the new ranks of very young boys from religious schools who are paid the significant amount of $50 for beating up anyone who walks down the street. This is the Chinese method: overwhelm your opponents, arrest lots of people, prevent demonstrators from gathering in significant numbers by striking first in the streets that lead to the big squares, jam communications so that the demonstrators don’t know which streets are safe, and block automobile traffic at all crucial intersections. And if some foreign journalist dares to report the truth, just throw him out.
It worked well on Tuesday, International Women’s Day, and the regime rubbed it in by focusing their attacks and arrests on women, who hold a special terror for the misogynists who rule the Islamic Republic.
But while these tactics prevent the Iranian equivalent of Tahrir Square, they have failed to defeat the pro-democracy Green Movement, and the regime was forced to take one step backward in its assault on Green leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who were first put in isolation in their homes and then, a couple of weeks ago, dragged off to interrogation in some of the regime’s secure villas on the outskirts of Tehran. It is said, by people close to Mousavi, that the interrogators pushed hard for a confession of the Greens’ foreign support, but got none (Mousavi would have to invent it, since there is no foreign support, to the shame of the so-called West). Instead they got a defiant statement: “You have two choices,” he reportedly said, “you can hang me or shoot me. You have no other option from your standpoint.”
They did neither. Indeed, while the street fights were going on, they quietly returned Mousavi and his firebrand wife, Zahra Rahnavard–in my opinion the most interesting Green leader–to their home. And late Thursday, the lights in the Karroubis’ home were turned on for the first time since they were kidnapped. For the moment, the regime has adopted the “Burmese solution”: the leaders are not going to be killed, the regime has abandoned hope of an effective show trial or even confession under torture, and the Mousavis and Karroubis will be cut off from the world in solitary confinement in their own homes. For a useful reminder of how often this method has been used in tyrannical regimes, have a look at this short review from RFE/RL.
This suggests that the Greens will have to alter their strategy, as Mousavi had argued before the latest round of demonstrations. Committed as he is to a non-violent campaign, Mousavi envisaged a wide range of actions against the regime in order to produce its implosion. He did not believe that there was going to be an Iranian replay of the storming of the Bastille or the Winter Palace, and while he favored a continuation of demonstrations, he was working to expand the Greens’ activities. He had long said that the Green Movement had to enlist workers in its ranks, and he had been quite successful, as you can see by the wave of strikes (and also here) (and here) (and here, reporting on an anti-Ahmadinejad demonstration, with chants and banners of “we workers are hungry”) to which I previously called your attention. Workers are increasingly fed up with a regime that has condemned half the urban population of the country to pauperism below the poverty line. We can expect more of these, especially if Western workers’ organizations raise money for strike funds for their Iranian brothers and sisters, as they did for Soviet bloc unions in the decisive phase of the Cold War.
Wasn’t it a good thing that Mousavi could identify no foreign support, and that lack of such augments the Greens’ credibility and popularity? Put another way, wouldn’t it be just like the regime to fabricate a foreign connection for the purpose of maligning the Greens? And if so, isn’t keeping our distance an important measure to protect our friends?
they — the regime — accuse him and us of it anyway. and if he took it, it would be his free choice. it seems perverse to me to refuse to support millions of iranians fighting for their lives and somehow claim the moral highground.
Nice metaphor “the spinal cord of oil and gas refineries, plants, and pipelines.” Kol ha Kavod. Sadly, Obama seems indifferent about protecting that “spinal cord” in Libya, which keeps the West mobile while Gaddafi goes about severing it.
What will be the effect of the Japan earthquake on the world economy?
And what about the price of oil, food, and other?
Often instable grounds and shifty sands react wildly to external disturbances.
An administration of subversives can only be happy about the increasing mayhem.
Very sad indeed.
An accurate description!
I keep wondering why no one has called the regime’s bluff on their endless spin about Moussavi and Karroubi being OK, and simply asked in a televised interview such as the one from Euronews with new FM Salehi in Geneva on Monday, to speak with them, or to see them. I suppose it is the same reason no one asked him or any EU representative how it was that the EU travel ban on Salehi was lifted in order to allow him to attend the Geneva meetings. His condescending attitude during interviews did not conceal his obvious enjoyment of this personal and political triumph.
Great point about Mousavi calling for other means of protest before the recent calls for protests, which appeared to come from outside Iran, and the sudden disappearance of both Mousavi and Karroubi and their wives. In fact so many new developments have occurred within recent weeks that the entire landscape of the opposition movement in Iran seems to be changing in ways we might not be able to fully comprehend for some time.
I think Mousavi/Karroubi should become the equivalent of Natan Sharansky during the Soviet era; true heroes that the Western world should unite around to pressure Iran. The current administration has completely failed to highlight and focus attention on the regime’s atrocious human rights record.
Michael, am I correctly concluding that aid of more than sufficient quantity and good quality has to make it to the Green movement. That way, the accusations by the deformed souls around Khameini and Ahmadinezhad will not matter one bit.
Or am I barking up the wrong tree?
david i must have answered this question a dozen times. once more: the president has to embrace the opposition, and Congress the same. Our diplomats from Hillary on down must constantly say this. Maybe some elements in the opposition could use money, such as workers.
I suppose it wouldn’t hurt if other governments did the same as well. What with Sarkozy recognizing the Libyans who have had enough of Gaddafi, this is a template that can be used.
Iran is, and always has been, the key. Obama really needs to come to grips with the fact that a “Tahrir Square” moment in Iran is now impossible. The bloodbath after the 2009 “election” should have proved that to him already. The mullahs are going the Gaddafi route and are going to do whatever it takes to stay in power, even if it means mass slaughter of its own citizens.
That’s where we come in. I’ve said it many times before, but there are more than enough people in Iran who are dissatisfied with the current regime. These people should be armed and financed by the CIA as quickly as possible. We should also be using bases with the Kurds from which to launch covert operations against the Iranian oil industry. This regime is NOT going to go without a fight, so the Iranian rebels are going to need as much help as possible if they are going to stand a chance against the Revolutionary Guards. We should also be reaching out to elements within the Iranian Army to defect, as they did in Libya. There really is no need for us to send actual troops into Iran considering the fact that there are so many people there who seem to be willing to overthrow the regime. But Obama HAS TO DO SOMETHING FIRST if he’s going to get some sort of favorable outcome in that country. Right now, remaining silent and sitting on the sidelines isn’t much of an option, unless, that is, you want the mullahs to stay in power.
The Brothers and the others should foment religious war between Christians and Muslims, a prelude to the use of force to guarantee “security.”
And our solution should be fomenting war between Sunnis and Shiites. If they are fighting each other, they will leave us alone. That should have been our strategy beginning in 1979.
Adding to your thoughts one also sees the removal of Hashemi Rafsanji, once thought to be untouchable, from the Committee of Experts and the very vulgar tongue lashing his daughter received in the streets of Tehran from Basiji goons as another sign that the regime will stop at nothing to brutally suppress opposition. This action clearly sends a message to Moussavi, Kahroubi and Khatami that if Rafsanji can be dealt with, so can they.
they–at least K and M–are not afraid. big difference.
I am ashamed that Obama golfed and parties while this evil regime remains in power.The Iranian people reached out to us in 2009 after the fraudulent election.Obama thumbed his nose at them.This is so disturbing.Where is the useless U.N.??
the UN is proving its uselessness of course. “the world’s biggest criminal organization.”
This American disagrees with any hint that the United States should be pressured by any faction anywhere to start any additional effort concerned with aiding militarily these newest rebels in North Africa, in addition to our continuing bloody involvement within Central/West Asia. Humanitarian assistance is a separate topic. The whole arena will suck up everyone’s “aid” for decades to come.
Despite our brave seesawing efforts inside Afghanistan, Iraq, and those enclaves inside our Pakistani “ally” during the past decade, I’ve a gut feeling that we will not make any lasting changes in the mindsets of those barbaric peoples which’ve not had any basic changes in thousands of years. Islam is only the current evil riding the wave of Arab nationalism.
Military aid given to those who are rebels against tyrannical regimes today will in due course be used against us in the future. It’s only a matter of time.
Our mercurial Islamist enemy is best handled by a blockade and a Cold War style containment within a line around Iran including adjusting these quarantined areas of danger to the United States as required, Iran remaining the pivot of our quarantine.
This is profoundly depressing.
The Iranians are stirring up trouble among the shi’ites in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia (the MSM credulously and ignorantly reporting the unrest as broad-based opposition). But the Iranians will, when expedient, cosy up to compliant sunnis, and vice versa.
So it is a measure of the viciousness and radicalism of the Muslim Brotherhood that they will cosy up to the Iranians. And the useful idiots of the academy and the chattering classes assure us that the Brotherhood is pragmatic and democratic!
1-Shias in Bahrain have legitimate grievances under an oppressive regime; we better not sweep it under the rug by connecting to Iran and yet again support oppression following realpolitik, in fact that is handing them over to Iran.
2-American people and civil society must mobilize to support Iranian democrats; this is more important (and prelude) to what Obama does, American unions strike fund is brilliant. A large demonstration should be organized, pick a date in Spring “rally to restore the mission of the American revolution and support freedom in Middle East” around cherry blossoms in DC. Leading figures of the right and left can be tapped to call for such a demonstration.
3-The Iranian regime cannot be overthrown without US military intervention, not the bombing of the nuclear facilities but being ready to strike hard when a situation similar to Libya arises multiplied by 100; for that is how this thing will evolve toward an endgame; some place will revolt, the military will be fractured and the regime will resort to mass murder. Then US must do what it has failed to do in Libya times 100.
4-Credit to Obama and Israel for sabotage in nuclear program; more covert operations including poisoning and killing of certain second rank political and military leaders is essential; it will make serving the regime costly without the propaganda of explosions and armed assassinations. Right now there is no cost.
5-regime financial lines and accounts must be studied and in one coordinated blow be cut off and blocked by the West.
5-Iranian opposition must intensify attack on key technologies and assets of the oil industry; key engineers must be identified and defect, same with nuclear program; a covert defection operation should be established.
6-The West should keep the oil prices low by drilling, investing, saving…oil prices at high levels are nothing but a mechanism for transfer of power from the West to Russia and Western Asia’s dictatorships. The current uprising followed a period low oil prices.
*US must think long term about China and seriously consider destabilizing it; China is the last place from which a counter-revolution against the Democratic power can be launched with the support of “oriental” ancient powers. What seems implausible today can become a crisis tomorrow.
Iranian regime proxies in latinamerican countries are too.Not surprise here.
But I have doubt.The regional response by the goverments in the this fact.
Michael,not alone,but waiting.
Michael,
I once knew an Iranian woman who escaped from Iran. She told me her view of Islam: “a means for the government to control the people.” How widespread is this view among the people of Iran or is Islam deeply rooted and respected by the people?
your friend is certainly right. voluntary practice of islam seems to be quite low, mosque attendance is very small, and i have often said that when the regime falls we will see the world’s first big Zoroastrian revival…
Ha! I learn more reading the comments to the comments to the postings than I learn anywhere else.
Let me first assure you that I be more than happy if Michael’s prediction comes to pass (and I also think it will though at slow pace, first amongst intellectuals then amongst people) and what I say below should not be construed as defending Islam; a religion imposed on Iran via cultural and national genocide; with rules suited more to desert dwellers of Arabia centuries ago than 21 century, anywhere.
Think of history as a turning wheel; its central axis rotates around ideas; power is at maximum radius shifts the fastest; just look at the fortunes of regimes in middle east and political parties in US.
Myths are nearer to its center as they relate to the central ideas that unfold in time, turning slowly. For better or worse Islam is the religion of 1.5 billion people on Earth; it is both an everyday religion and a mythology. Myths do not turn on a dime.
The election of Obama (father Muslim and thus as far as Muslims are concerend a muslim) sent shock waves across the Islamic world. How can this be? An African Muslim? but we were told Americans are heir to Crusaders.
In fact, Iranian leaders truly believed, it will not happen and said so in public.
Equally, *political* Anti-Islamic voices out of the US are detrimental to our cause for US is forever tied to ideas of freedom in the minds of people (such as foolish hearing on radicalization of Muslims by Congress) This does not mean at an intellectual level American writers be silent about Islam; note my own first paragraph. Such things however should be done with careful calculations at the political level and certainly never for domestic political consumption. (I also find the premise that any “community” is somehow more responsible or should be more concerned about something a form of collectivism and repugnant; it is no different that what Jim Moran said about the “Jewish community” and Iraq while back and for which he rightfully paid a price. Individuals are responsible for their own actions and can also choose not to care at all about what goes on in their “community”; we have FBI for that)
Jews and Muslims are engaged in a war which is in part religious in the holy land. Israel as a democracy and political entity is part of the West but we cannot close our eyes to the (growing) religious dimension of the conflict. The democratic transformation of the region will dampen part of it but meanwhile it is of paramount importance that the West not enter or be perceived as taking sides over the conquest of Jerusalem one way or the other and a firm distance should be kept from those Evangelical Christians that wish to paint the relation between Israel and the United States with religious tones.
The enemy is tyranny not mythology; just look at Iran. Just about every shia grand Ayotallah is opposed to the regime; Islam as a myth is an incredibly powerful force; let’s not hand it over to the enemy to use it as weapon against us.
(incidentally shia Islam is itself a first step toward dismantling Islam’s central ideas of dogmatic simplicity with all its Shia rites and saints and idols, rightfully viewed by Salafis as a perversion of Islam; just compare Sistani to Ben Laden; Shia Islam is where the first nails on the coffins of Islam were manufactured, by Iranians and by mixing Islam with Zoroastrain “idolatry” and love of light and fire and change)
The Shiite sect was invented by Iranians after the Arab conquest of the Persian Empire. It was an attempt to maintain the Iranian identity, albeit sub rosa, from being completely overwhelmed by the Arab culture. It worked. Then came the Safavid dynasty, which was being challenged from the west by the Sunni Ottomans. To build a strong fence against any potential Ottoman threat the Safavids encouraged the institutionalization of Shiism as a bulwark against Sunni incursion. It worked at the cost of creating a fanatical Shiite sect; a pyrrhic victory of sorts. This institutionalization of religion has now come to do the exact opposite of what was the original intent, namely maintaining the Iranian identity. I agree the many Iranians (yours truly for example) have had it with any form of Islam. However, in the rural areas Shiism is deeply rooted in the psyche of the peasantry. It will take a yeoman’s effort to divorce them from that garbage. The Shah and his father, RIP, attempted to do so. However the speed of their endeavour was what ultimately doomed their noble effort.
agreed mostly. The history you mention is important and I want people to think in longer terms, about history and understand what appears as an enemy short term, is not. It is a response to superficial thinking that supports Wahabi invasion of Bahrain today by connecting the uprising to the Iranian regime when it is actually connected to resistance to dogmatic simplicity of Islam. Shia Islam is the force that really has the power to fracture Arabian peninsula and leave it divided and weak. It is the only force that can penetrate the very heart of Islam, a specialized weapon invented for that very purpose. It is no wonder Al Qadad’s number one target, the largest numbers they have killed are shias; it is why Suadis insisted on separation and Independence of bahrain, the attempt to change the demographics by Saudis and Bahraini ruling elites for decades, the invasion now…. simplifying the theology of the peninsula by crushing Shias in Yaman, Bahrain and North East Saudi Arabia is the thing the West should be concerned about the most.
reza are you wearing your turban today?
No sorry Michael I was wearing it but commit to fire with the holy book
How about you? are you carrying your realpolitik manual?
I am never without my manual…tks for asking.
The latest news is that the the revolutionary guard is refusing to shoot or beat protesters, and the regime is using child soldiers to suppress demonstrations in Tehran. It sounds like the regime is scraping the bottom of the barrel to find thugs to suppress the demonstrations and this must mean the regime is nearing the end of it’s rope. Faster please.
http://www.sify.com/news/iran-using-child-soldiers-to-fight-protesters-news-international-ldns4gbeead.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8331625/Irans-Revolutionary-Guard-pledges-to-hold-fire.html
The tragedy is this: Barack Obama is not conducting himself as President of the United States. He utterly ignores his oath of office, in itself a revealing insight into his true character. He sees himself as a partisan who has gained the office of the President. He uses his office, not to govern, but to impose his views, decidedly unAmerican, on the citizens of the United States. Need it be said that his conduct in office is distinctly differen from what he said, in 2008, he would do if elected. His election to be President is a tragedy of the first magnitude.
You are assuming that his oath of office is to the Constitution of these United States. I make no such assumption. I believe in his mind the UN Charter is a far more venerable document. If you listen to him carefully, occasionally his Freudian slips will show you a window to his true dreams for the U.S.; “It is much easier to be the President of China”