How Long Can the Iranian Regime Last?
These measures – some of which have been announced, while others will emerge in coming weeks – will further enrage most Iranians, who are already alienated from the regime. The ranks of the enragés include many senior clerics, and in recent weeks the regime has assaulted their mosques, beaten and arrested their followers and even family members, and shut down their websites and Facebook pages. The regime’s critics are not going quietly. The Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, for example, who is a member of the Assembly of Experts that chooses the supreme leader, has recently challenged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s legitimacy, saying that “the only duties of someone selected by the Assembly of Experts are ‘…to coordinate the efforts of the three branches of government and to prevent the violation of citizens’ rights by the three branches.’ This bold claim means that the supreme leader’s powers are much more limited than is currently the case. Dastgheib asserts, ‘This person…has no right to interfere in the affairs of the people.’”
Other senior clerics have taken similar positions, and Khamenei is traveling today to the holy city of Qom, where he will meet with many of them in an attempt to shore up his waning legitimacy. Matters have gone too far, too many people have been killed, tortured, and humiliated to expect the Qom clerical establishment to fully embrace Khamenei. Remarkably, at least some of these men of the turban are prepared for martyrdom rather than accept Khamenei’s tyranny. I doubt we will see a mass rejection of Khamenei in Qom, however, and in all likelihood many will support the supreme leader, and those who reject him will face harsh treatment when the leader returns to the capital.
Thus the vice of oppression tightens more forcefully on all levels of Iranian society, as the regime uses the only method that can keep Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in power: the iron fist, combined with foreign adventure (about which more in my next blog).
Can it last? The regime would surely fall in short order if its opponents received a modicum of real support from the West, but no such support seems to be forthcoming from the feckless men and women who mistakenly fancy themselves to be real leaders, and who one day will have earned a shameful page in the history of this period.
And so the agony of Iran continues, until the inevitable explosion of righteous wrath finally destroys this evil regime.
Will this clerical opposition to Khamenei result in renewed prestige for the religious scholars and a future opportunity for a restored and purified clericy to remain in power? The alternative would be for the fires of fanaticism to burn out in a Thermidor and lead the way to an eventual restoration of a civil society and a government that reflects what passes for middle class consensus in Iran.
England had it’s episode of Puritan excess and that lead to the Restoration, and not just of a soon to be constitutionally restrained monarchy. It was the agricultural and rural Tory conservatism combined with the tolerant practical Whig mercantile values of the English that formed the basis of their successes over the following three centuries. If such a transformation could follow from the repudiation of Khamenei and Khomeini’s legacy then Iran may have a bright future.
The English experience of recovery from revolutionary excess was happier than the French. That may have been due to many factors both internal and external. Other societies have remained trapped by the conditions the revolution created even after no one still believed in it. The soviet system lasted for over 70 years. Some may simply view Islam itself as a permanent regime transforming captive societies through terror. The Iranian Theocracy has already lasted for 50% longer than English Puritanism. That means that a whole generation has grown up and is raising families with no personal knowledge of life before this regime. The destruction of human, financial, intellectual and moral assets is real.
When the next chapter opens which model, the English, French, Russian, etc., will most closely resemble Iran?
“The regime would surely fall in short order if its opponents received a modicum of real support from the West”
Yeah, that is the problem. Who is going to support us?
It seems to me that evil people with a continuing source of revenue, a preponderance of force, and no compunction about mass murder and mass terror can retain power indefinitely, or until they are overthrown from outside.
I hope I’m wrong and you’re right.
But I noticed this article warning that Iraq is beginning to drift into satellite status wrt Iran: exactly what I’ve been fearing/expecting in the years since it became obvious that Bush had no overall strategy for the war. Would appreciate your reaction if you can spare the time.
ask Gorbachev if he agrees that an evil regime with all the guns can stay in power indefinitely, gs.
Per your suggestion I started writing an email to Gorby, but the shaking of my ouija board interrupted me. It was Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and Joe Stalin all calling him a loser who isn’t worth wasting time on.
Iran in Iraq…?
Mr Ledeen, I think it more accurate to say that the regime will destroy Iran & not as you say, the Iranians will rise up & destroy the regime. Unless stopped by military action on the part of the U.S. or more likely, Israel, the regime will have the time to obtain deliverable nuclear weapons. The turmoil in Iran will only make them more dangerous, more likely to precipitate a nuclear war in the Middle-East. They will willingly sacrifice the Iranian people – do you doubt that these fanatics consider the Iranian people traitors to their sick Islamic ideology, deserving of destruction? Just like Hitler & the Nazis who preferred to see Germany destroyed because the German people had proved ”unworthy” …..
My interpretation of Dr. Ledeen’s position is that he believes the regime is essentially superficial, the people basically opposed and the official ideology having minimum resonance – implication, the Iranian people are ready to rise up and get rid of them once and for all. Even if so in theory, the reality is they have the guns and the prisons and the torture chambers. The US will keep equivocating. I suspect Israel will have to attack before popular uprising occurs, and the effects of such an attack on Iran itself (politically) are unclear.
Mr. Ledeen you keep writing about the imminent demise of the regime in Iran. As I look around the Middle East I see numerous despots that hang around until Allah calls them home.
As long as the regime is being used as a tool for the US to be in the area, then they will be around. Iran is stuck with these aliens who pretend to represent lran and members of the press treat them so.
If they really were reported as if they were let’s say Afghan war lords who had crossed into Iran and taken a bit of land, then everyone would know who they were and the world would accept them as aliens. But they are treated as if they are Iranians.
For example Michael you have not mentioned the role of the national army at all. Why? Many people reading your article would think that there is no other culture that binds Iranians other than Islam. So what we need is proper representation of Iran.
they are Iranians, ali, and they were put in power by other iranians, many of whom rue the day they did it.
Yes you are right, in 1979 people were blinded by the bright light of democracy. Now they can’t find their way way through this veil of darkness.
What happened in Iran in 1979, was an embarrassment to all who believed that you can have progressive change in Iran. After all they only had Poland to look at. People thought that Khomeini was Pope John Paul. Ask Brzezinski. But we all know he was Sinon who tricked all (especially JC) to sign up to this Islamic Trojan horse plan for Iran.
We Iranians like the people of Troy fell for this lovely gift called democracy. The real army of Iran under Gharabaghi got tricked by Fardoost and the terrorists took over. Arafat and Khomeini laughed and kissed each other. We Iranians know all of these followers of Koran, and know that we have to follow Iranian philosophy to gain our freedom using free will and non-violence as written in Zend Avesta. It is our fault for not doing it sooner. Ya Ahuramazda we will.
“The base was attacked by two men on motorcycles, who first killed two security guards and then launched rockets over the walls into the base.”
This is now starting to get interesting. Who were these men and what organization did they belong to? Were they lone operatives (which I doubt, since they were able to acquire rockets, which are not easy to get in a place like Iran), or were they part of group funded and supported by the CIA? I’ve always called for massive covert operations in Iran to fund and support groups that are against the current regime. These groups are capable of sabotage and encouraging massive civil unrest.
All of this is very, very, good, but we still don’t see much movement in a rebellion within the Iranian Army and Navy. This is the key to the rebellion. Unless the power of the Army and Navy is used against the Revolutionary Guards, I don’t think the revolution will succeed. Without military support, any general civilian uprising could be put down just like the civilian riots were exterminated last year after the elections. We MUST either buy or bribe senior officers to push their troops against the Revolutionary Guards or we MUST start a covert campaign to start convincing troops to join the protesters. If we can do that, the regime will fall, and quickly. The Revolutionary Guards doesn’t have the muscle to take on the Army, Navy, and the civilian population.
Exactly what sort of support do you propose that we give the resistance?
I think it’s better that the Iranians overthrow their regime without our support. Then we won’t have to accept blame if the succeeding regime provides something less than Utopia. Besides, it’s not as though the mullahs, should they win their internal struggle, would then support mideast peace. (At least, I haven’t _heard_ any of them hint along those lines.)
When iranians give support to terrorists and enemies of the west… we should do the same.
IE support Israel
The Iranians have been shucking and jiving politicians and members of the MSM in the USA for years, no doubt chuckling at the gullibility of American suckers.
To hear the MSM and politicians tell it, there is a large contingent of dissidents in Iran, who would like to overthrow their country’s regime of mullahs, and to hear the MSM and politicians tell it, also, the vast majority of Iranians love Americans …, of which there is absolutely no credible evidence whatsoever.
Relatiuvely speaking, there is only a handful of ineffective dissidents, and the vast majority of Iranians fully support their mullahs. So let’s get a grip and let’s get real here. An Iranian regime of mulluhs and demagogues will be in place for another thousand years, barring unforeseen circumstances.
kinda like the thousand-year reich, right brian?
True, but they don’t need a thousand years to unleash the full ‘Twelver’ ideology in terms of nuclear apocalypse. The moment they have a working, deliverable nuke is something like Hitler’s nuclear research coming to fruition before the Russians dropped in on Berlin. At least it is for Israel, if not for the United States.
Big difference, Michael. As part of the former Persian Empire, Iranian culture has been around for a helluvalot longer; a culture that precedes Islam by many centuries and a culture in which, I suspect, most Iranians take an enormous amount of pride, and that’s what we’re dealing with there.
yes, brian, lots of iranians are disgusted at the low cultural level of their oppressors, and they should be.
BTW, What you and I realize, Michael, but what many people in this country in particular are too uneducated to realize is that their ancestors were building cities and navigating the oceans, while our ancestors were still living in caves. I suspect, therefore, that it galls them whenever westerners are condescending with them.
yeah well not MY ancestors…
And you need to thank Cyrus the Great for being set free.
Biting my tongue here. You left yourself wide open for a funny reply.
If you weren’t so uptight, and if you didn’t take yourself so seriously, and if you had a sense of humor, and if you were capable of laughing at yourself, you kept leaving yourself so wide open that I could have have had some fun with you. Now, y’all have a nice day, ya hear?
“Yeah, well, not MY ancestors.” – M. Ledeen
Oh yeah, I forgot. The Dead Sea Scrolls
were discovered in the tacky armoire of an ostentaciously furnished high-rise condo
on the outskirts of what many present day
scholars and archeologists theorize to have
been, up unil 2,500 years ago, the original
bustling Hebrew metropolises of Boca Raton
and Miami Beach, situated in the middle of
that huge, always sunny beach known as the
Sinai Peninsula, well, but only to tourists.
The locals call it Oy Vey But Its Hot Here,
which loosely translates as we once had a nice beachfront community here, until those Hebes
built a boardwalk and tacky fast-food stands,
selling pizza, cotton candy, bagela and lox.
Well, never mind that some of their cities today look the same way that they looked 1,400 years ago, blessed be to Mohammad.
Thanks for the update Dr. Ledeen! You know if you want to buy cement, go to the Revolutionary Guards. If you want a joint, go to the revolutionary guards. If you want a lady of the night, go to the revolutionary guards. Because the Pasdars are not soldiers at all! The heroes, the real defenders of Iran are either dead, in jail, keeping a low profile or are out of the country. The revolutionary guards are thugs! They are murderers, pimps, drug dealers, rapists and thieves. Pasdar? Hah! They couldn’t do jack sh%t against Saddams forces! They bring shame and misery to the Iranian people. Haram! HARAM! Down with MUNAFIQS! Them, the Taliban and Al Queda are the real heretics of Islam. Thanks for keeping us updated sir.
It is interesting to hear conversations about how the Iranians are oppressing their people who would be free but for our donating more money to their cause. Is that really true? All those people, the majority, hate the regime and wish it gone? BOGUS. This is just another example where our elites canNOT find a way to demand we spread REAL freedom. A checklist of items, like the First Amendment, Second Amendment, and Article 1, section 2 (vote on tax man EVERY two years) which would be be required before ANY U.S. aid, in any form, would spread freedom. We’re in Afganistan dying for a country that still feels justified in condemning Christians to death and that tolerates parliamentarians suggesting the beheading happen On the parliaments carpet. NO society that enshrine Islam in its foundational documents will ever truly be our friend for long. BOZO.
It’s good to see some Iranians are not showing up to work, if they did that in massive numbers the regime would be in far more serious trouble. Maybe we can get more support from the new congress coming in November; we sure aren’t going to see it coming from Obama.
Sorry, but iranian people is no match for the tugs in power. They are gonna stay as long as n external force takes the task. Israel, US for example, can:
1.- declare total war
2.- make limited hits (e.g. their nuclear sites, or covered sabotage acts)
And most probably the choice will be (or already is) the latter. This second option will only weaken the regime.
Will iranian people take the opportunity to reveal or will they join with the regime (patriotic-like) when external forces hit?
Total war? Hell, a blockade would bring them to their knees. Sabotaging their oil tankers would do them same without a declaration of war. If all the tankers with Iranian oil had mechanical problems with the screws and rudders the money would dry up. Not hard to do with a sub and some Navy Seals. Who wants to buy oil that may never reach your ports? Insurance rates would also skyrocket.
Greetings:
Quoting: “the vice of oppression tightens”
Question: Did you mean “vise” ???
i thought it was a pretty good pun actually…gotta have some fun around here :=)
Some fresh news (in french) about the Imam Ali Base explosion at
http://www.menapress.org/
It seems thing are very very bad for the iranian missile system
Well, my positions on this issue and on other related have now changed somewhat, because I just saw on the news that that damned fool, Barack Obama, and that other damned fool, Richard Holbrook, have invited Iran to participate in a discussion on what our exit strategy from Afganistan should be, with hopes that Iranians, of all people, will fill the vacuum in Afganistan after we have left that country.
Obama is turning over Afganistan to Iran and he isn’t making any attempt to deter Iran from getting nuclear missles and he is telling Israel, in effect, that they’re not our problem anymore? Obama isn’t just betraying and selling out Israel. He is betraying and selling out the USA, also. I’m not exaggerating. Check it out. Or are you too apathetic to do so. The MSM sure isn’t concerned. No surprise there.
This has to be a first; asking one of our worst enemies to assist us in implementing that exit strategy, another sign of our weakness to all of our enemies and especially to Muslim terrorists, and a decision that will make Iran look only that much more powerful in that region. That sleazy and treacherous degenerate, Obama, is now systematically and deliberately destroying everything that the Bush Administration accomplished in the Middle East.
Ordinarily I’m not an alarmist. But I see that as high treason. Not that most people in this country give a damn. Thew people on Fox acted like it was no big deal.
Obama’s Democratic and Republican opponents pointed out, again and again, his naivete (read stupidity) concerning International affairs. No one cared because he was so young and sexy, and because of that thousands, probably tens of thousands will be killed.
Obama’s incompetence is incomprehensible unless one assumes he hates the US. What is far worse is that he has the support of 45% of the public.
On the face of it this would be reasonable, you hold peace talks with those you are at war with. However the fact that we haven’t acknowledged that we are at war with Iran, we haven’t attacked Iran except economically and that was even half assed, and the fact that we have already agreed to exit the battlefield doesn’t leave us in a position to do much more than hear their surrender terms.
Given that the seizing of the US Embassy in Teheran in ’79
is sufficient casus belli, that item (however inconvenient
to the accomplices of evil outside of the Greater Middle East) has earned the US a seat at the table.
Frankly, I still think the best solution is to turn Afghanistan and Pakistan over to a newly liberated Iran. For, I am sure deals can be made so that the arrangement is mutually beneficial.
Plus, wouldn’t a temporary trusteeship over those two lands be enough to funnel what is needed to those standing
up to the newest Persian tyranny?
Michael, I hope that you live long enough, and the people you can count on still hold onto their ethics, to write the real history. For, you can be sure that as sure as G_d made little green apples, those you rightfully castigate as poseurs and strutters, will find a way to justify themselves.
Dear Michael, YOU (AMERICANS) should be proud that you were freed Europeans and some Asians from Nazism and Fascism and Communism… Germany “Adolph Hitler”, totalitarianism in the USSR “Joseph Stalin”, Italy “Benito Mussolini”, Spain “Francisco Franco”, and Japanese fascism and recently an repressive tyrannical regime in Iraq “Saddam Hussein”. All fascist regimes fallen in Europe in Asia. The Americans should be proud that you were supported the Revolutions of Freedom and Democracy in Middle Europe. Today all that countries practise a real democracy.
So I would like to say to the turbans regime “the Mullahs” and to their strategic allies from evil malicious regimes in the region, on top the Ba’th Party’s Syrian regime “Bashar Al-Assad”, and those whom megalomaniacs Overseas, Chavez’s Venezuela, Cuba’s Fidel Castro and others of this sort……Remember that! Just as Nazism and Fascism with its evil doctrines fell in Europe and part of Asia, as well as the rest of the totalitarian regimes followed them…..the history will bring down the remaining fascist regimes and will liberate the peoples from your horrible acts of injustice…But our great hope that (AMERICANS) as a great nation, as the only superpower on the earth to continue of your Great Moral Mission to support Revolutions of Freedom and Democracy in the terrible Middle East. There are millions need your help and wait for your support!!!
Jassem Othman, the homeland of Holocaust, Poland.
Given the snarkiness of some tea party folk, you should expect this to happen: The US withdraw within itself, because there will be few things that will be agreed upon. So, since there is no revoking of the law that nature abhors a vacuum, expect the implosion of the 50 state union to take place. Because there is no way all of the states are on the same page when it comes to where the US fits into the world.
You have the “progressives” who are very happy to see tenure act as a powerful force field to attack social conservatives, Israelis and the usual targets. Since that is part of the North East, you can be sure that the Old Confederacy will not sign onto
it.
So, my suggestion is for Poland to take the lead again (like Pilsudski tried to create a Polish lead federation with Finland, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as seen here: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/americas-influence-declining-in-middle-east/) and broker a deal going north and south. The Baltic countries being the Northern part, to Greece and Cyprus, in the south.
For this amalgam, in conjunction with a revamped Commonwealth, offers more hope to the world than maintaining the status quo where
the US has too many eggs in the basket to do what people rationally want to see done.
Unfortunately those in Iran desirous of change, are not getting any moral support from the present regime in the US are they? President BimBam only seems to be catering to the evil islamic factions.
How long can the Iranian regeime last? At least as long as the regeime in North Korea, which starves its own people but has had a firm grip on power since 1953. Iran’s theocracy has plenty of oil, the loyalty of the revolutionary guard, plenty of weapons and a willingness to kill without mercy. They need nothing else. The so-called opposition has been utterly helpless for the past 30 years and there is no reason to suggest they will be any better in the next 30.
There may be unrest and even resistance here and there, but what of it? There is no serious challenge to the regieme that they cannot drown in blood. In the end, repression works, if the government has the will to be ruthless. Iran’s government has that in spades.
You are totally right. The Soviet Union held together for decades simply because they had the guns. All the wishful thinking in the world won’t change any regime.
How long can Iran last? Six years plus or minus eighteen months.
.
2012:
Domestically – someone who stands for freedom.
Internationally – someone who stands for freedom.
Nuff said.
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