Seeing Iran Plain
Then there is the raging debate over the future of the Free University, which produced the amazing spectacle last week of the siege of Parliament by the fanatical Basiji, who at one point called for cannons to be trained on recalcitrant deputies. And what was the cause of this amazing confrontation? Listen to RFE /RL :
At the center of the tug-of-war is Azad University: its leadership, board, 1.4 million students, and tens of billions of dollars in assets.
On one side are hard-liners within the Iranian establishment, most prominently President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who appears ready to punish Azad University for its alleged support for opposition candidates in the 2009 presidential election. Supporting Ahmadinejad is the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution (SCCR), whose resolution to alter the Azad University’s charter, replace its current head of Azad University, and change its governing board was recently approved by the president.
On the other side are the conservatives within the same establishment, mainly former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who co-founded the university in 1982 and now heads its board of trustees. Also supporting the conservatives are parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, and Abdollah Jasbi, the university head who is up for replacement and is a close Rafsanjani ally.
Let me deconstruct this for you. It’s mostly about money, and powerful men like Larijani and Rafsanjani are trying to prevent Ahmadinejad from getting his hands on it. The headline is perfect: “Battle over Azad University Deepens Iran’s Divisions.” Those divisions are internal ones, not part of the life and death battle between the regime and the Green Movement.
On the latter front, there have been numerous physical assaults on sites — including mosques — linked to dissident ayatollahs, especially the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and his likely spiritual heir, Ayatollah Sane’i. This prompted a condemnation from the Iranian representative of Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Sistani, an event of considerable import, since Sistani is the most authoritative clerical figure in the Shi’ite world today. Those who think that the Greens have no religious support should take notice.
Nor are things more favorable to the regime on the “secular” front. In the city of Rasht last Thursday, the morality cops tried to detain a mother and daughter, but the mother challenged the police. Predictably, the cops started beating the woman with batons. Whereupon, the people on the street rallied to the women, started chanting “Dictator, dictator” (the Greens’ anti-Khamenei slogan), and the police sped off. Banafsheh has the video, along with another spectacular video of a disastrous fire at the oil field in Naft-Shahr, which started with an explosion a full month ago and is still burning with great intensity, as you can see. (scroll down a bit). I can promise you that the explosion was no accident.
Finally, the Greens are becoming more outspoken about the future of the country, including the fate of their oppressors. Mousavi laid it out in mid-June:
[The Green Movement supports] freedom for all political prisoners as well as the abolishment of [all] illegal restrictions [and opposes] the security-oriented approach to the activities of political parties, social groups and movements such as the women’s movement, the student movement, labor unions, and the like. To this end, the following strategies should be followed diligently: [ensuring] fair trials for those who authorized as well as those who actually carried out the election fraud and the killing and torture of protesters, as well as exposing and trying those who have theorized and defended violence at various levels of the power hierarchy.
This is a quietly confident voice, and it is heard in the palaces of the rulers. One day, they will remember those words. When they are held accountable for their crimes.
Do not believe that the opposition has given up simply because they choose not to take to the streets against armed thugs. There are many forms of democratic revolution.
Of which more shortly.
That firetruck was hauling ass in the wrong direction wasn’t it? hahahaha
yes, greg, the firetruck is going away from the fire, horns blaring and all. i thought of using it as a symbol of the regime, but thought better of it. sometimes a fire truck is only a fire truck.
I appreciate your prudence Mr Ledeen. Any thinking audience though, can apply “crisis management” like the one in the video to any number of Nationalized endeavors. Was that Akmi whatevers the Iranians presidents name is, driving the truck??? (Rhetorical)
Given that Turkey is now sliding deeper and deeper in the pro-Islamic and anti-Western tent, why not wreck their day by heavily arming the Kurds and supplying them with as much US special forces support as possible? Think about it. In one shot we could keep Turkey in its place, cause untold problems for the Iranians, and protect the territorial integrity of Iraq, all by simply supporting the Kurds. The Kurds have hated both the Turks and the Iranians for centuries. If we were shrewd international players, we would use this hatred to our advantage, having a ready-made guerilla force at our disposal that has never shied away from fighting against either the Iranians or the Turks. What’s not to love?
But, you say, the Turks are our allies, so why try to harm them? Some ally. Even though Turkey is in NATO (barely and God knows for how much longer, given the Islamists that are now in power), they didn’t allow us to invade Iraq from Turkey and they are always crying about our use of the NATO airbases in Turkey. And, given their new-found love for both Iran and Brazil, while showing more and more hatred for Israel (a true ally, at least for the time being), it would serve the Turks right that we humble them a bit by supporting people who can’t stand them. After all, if the Turks are now throwing in their lot with organizations like Hamas, why can’t we support the Kurds, one of the few ethnic groups in the Middle East that actually LIKES the United States?
I say support the Kurds, big time. Give them what they need so that they can cause major problems for the Iranians and the Turks. If the Iranians can have surrogates in Hamas and Hezbollah, why can’t we have our own surrogates in the Kurds? Two can play this game in the Middle East and the Iranians and the Turks should begin to know that, now.
It is my understanding that the US’s CIA and the Israeli’s are doing as best they can to assist the Kurds while keeping their heads as much below the radar as possible. Of course, this sounds contradictory to official policy, but I believe the CIA still has a hand in supporting the Mujahideen, which places it in juxtaposition to active US policy – but that wouldn’t be the first time.
Why do we keep up the utter hoax of Turkey as a NATO member?
Why does the USA keep pushing Turkey as a member of EU.
Cant anyone see reality?
You forgot the Syrians. Helping Syria’s Kurds will take the Assad ruling clique down a notch or two.
“But this is considerably worse, for not only do we leave the Kurds at the mercy of the two big Islamist countries; we have failed to guarantee the territorial integrity of Iraq, which is a much more serious matter.”
So what else is new? We’re failing to guarantee the territorial integrity of the United States.
Add this article, and especially the last four paragraphs to the list of documents not read by President ‘Noisome Pestilence’(Psalm 91), Eric the Aggggh, Miss Botox America, Dodd of the Cottage, Barney ‘Mumbles’ Frank, Harry the Dingy, Chuck the lip, et. al.
As our navy steams into the area, what is the plan? Are we going to be on the right side or the side of our enemies? Will out navy be mortally damaged, which would increase patriotic feeling before the 2010 elections? Is this why the presisdent shuffled his feet and did nothing to help the Greens, because he had a plan for 2010 and didn’t want freedom to interupt?
Michael, what about this tactic: those who are shining the light of scrutiny on the man’s inhumanity to man dished out by the forces currently swearing allegiance to Khameini, Ahmadinezhad, et al., they be called “Iran”. Whereas those on the receiving end
of their inhumanity be referred to as Persia.
For there are times when distinctions are needed to communicate what is going on, and this looks like one of those times.
After the Marine Barracks bombing was traced to Iran..can anyone tell me
why we didnt use a cruise missle strike to kill those responsible? We had
intercepted phone calls, we knew who ordered it. Reagan seemed
utterly befuddled by Islamic Terrorism. His brain had been programmed
to fight the Cold War..and he just couldnt adjust to what history was
actually showing him was the new threat.
I’m petty sure that we didn’t have cruise missiles back then. That’s why we had to fly planes all the way from England when we attacked Khaddafy.
Good piece, but on the second point, I don’t think people are ‘declaring the opposition dead’ exactly. For instance, I asked you if they are not genuinely quiet or intimidated in the current period, partly because of the repression last year. Personally, I would be thrilled if the opposition(s) to the IRG would unite and overthrow them. But I do disagree with you that a revolution is nearly guaranteed, or likely.
I think this also has to do with your opposition to a strike from outside, Michael. I agree with Fuad Ajami in his interviews at PJTV – a strike is a poor idea in theory. It’s that PM Netanyahu (among others) can’t really accept the idea of a nuke-ish Iran.
What I see is a race between internal revolution and chaos or revolution triggered by a strike. Those hoping for the former have basically run out of time, and should not now complain if events in Iran go out of control because the option of a nuclear Iran is unacceptable.
Larry: my complaint is that no Western country has supported revolution. It’s not that time is up.
Mr Ledeen: I am most appreciative of your comments. I have the sense when
reading them that I am getting accurate information. Please continue.
Regarding Iranian violation of Iraqi territory, additional evidence was recently provided and reported to indicate that the American hikers arrested by Iranian forces in 2009 while allegedly illegally entering Iran were actually arrested (kidnapped) by the Iranians in the Kurdish Regional Government area of Iraq (http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15366180?nclick_check=1)
marcH, the London Telegraph reported at the time that the hikers were in Iraq, not Iran.
I hope Mr Ledeen reads this. I haven’t been at this site for the longest time due to account blockage by iran censors.
Mr Ledeen, irrespective of the topic, I’d like to point out two things. One is that most Iranians do not have any bad feelings toward Israel or at the very least they are as neutral as say Malaysians or Indonesians might be. However, even the most open minded Iranian finds it difficult for Iran to one day offer to be allies with Israel because we are so full of Pride that we think Israel is not at the level to deserve such “attention.”
Second, is that Mr Khatami lost hugh opportunities. But, perhaps, one day if a reformist with guts comes around, there might be hope.
No doubt, Khamenie interefered and made life very difficult for Khatami from behind the scenes and then would turn out in public and ask the government (whom he was paralyzing) to solve people’s daily concerns.
Mr Khatami should have in turn used his position and popularity to keep Khamenie in check. And with strategy.
You ask HOW?
Mr Khatami could have anounced that if Israel withdraws from Golan Heights, Iran & Syrian would negotiate directly with Israel and work out a detente or a “mutually respected” relations.
On the one hand, this would have given Khatami the power to threaten Khamenis’s territory (Palestine, Lebanese issues) if Khamenie kept on paralyzing his government. And on the other hand, would have kept Khamenie and harliners at check- afterall, Syria was a super ally and Bashar would have been all for such a settlement. With such an agreement or the prospects of such an agreement, Bashar would have kept Hezbollah in check even if Iranian hardliners would have wanted to get Hezbollah to ruin the agreement.
It would have been a situation giving Syria the prize it “deserves” for being an Iranian ally- anmely Golan Heights with Iranians at the table, kept Hezbollah in check, made Syria still a powerful player that Iran would want to keep, swept the foreign policy monopoly from Iranian hardliners.
Ofcourse, this is all past. But what is not is that at the very least Israel can quickly withdraw from GOlan Heights, sign an agreement with Syria, re-invade Gaza, shuffle things around and then all would be good!
The Question though is, what is keeping Israel from withdrawing from Golan Heights and reaching peace with Syria Tomorrow?
Mr Ledeen,
i couldn’t work today, thinking about how so many things would be for the better if Israel only withdraws from Golan Heights.
Its effects will truly reshape our middle Hell.
Israel can place the most advanced systems to allay any fears from a secular Assad regime.
It can have such a reverberating effect no one knows.
Iran without a Syria can be such a positive event. But please keep out the Saudis and Egyptians so that Syria will not be in an axis vs Iran.
Syria with Golan Heights and with great relations with both Israel and Iran will be a strong sedative for the Iranian regime’s behaviour.
It could happen. If Netanyahu wants a legacy and if Israel wants peace that is the answer: give back Golan Heights by the end of the year as US forces prepare to leave Iraq. Otherwise, with Us forces out of Iraq, the Syrians would be bolstered by the alliance of Iran,Iraq & Syria they might not even care for the Golans anymore.
Israel should give the Golans back to Syria before US troops withdraw from Iraq, otherwise the region will go to Hell!
Honeslty Faster Faster- Hezbollah is physically more controlled by Syria then by Iran. Any regional observor knows this.
DictatorAyastollah; Kissingarser: Hello Mr Al Qaeda who wrote the Al Qaeda English for fools piece…
Michael,
This film was shown on Swiss TV on the 27th. It is called Iran’s Green Summer, and it is a must see. There are blog entries that have been translated into German, but also interviews in Farsi with German subtitles. It is powerful.
http://videoportal.sf.tv/video?id=5d1b5712-0da6-4f6b-9973-4ac615746ee7
King Abdullah of SA meeting with Obama:
minutes:
King: Mr Obama, you can forget about us joining publicly against Iran. You must force Israel to relinquish Golan Heights before we can get anywhere.
Mr Obama: you;ve got it. I will this year give Israel a December deadline to withdraw and it will happen.
Mr Ledeen, this will be Obama;s big gamble- he will give Golan back to Syria, If things turn out well, then he will get re-elected. If not, he;ll be a one termer
Yes, the Iranian people have mostly hated their dictators for years. Yes, Iran has been at war with the “West” since 1979.
Yes, the US policy is to keep the Iranian dictators, that parade as religious, in power at all cost; one reason is to limit the supply of oil, which is the same reason the USA has caused most Iraqi oil to stay off the market since 1991.
Mr Ledeen, you seem to be gettting your facts in order, but you still refuse to get past your delusional vision of American foreign policy. If you would, even for the sake of argument, adopt my positions, you will see that not only do my conclusions explain with clarity and lack “holes”, but they also make it obvious what strategy to use to win the war against Islime.
Obama/US policy: See no Islime terror, Hear no Islime terror, but apologize to Islime for American behaviour (capturing/killing Islime terrorist foot soldiers)!
The American Maim Stream Media has surrendered to Islime and committed to be their “Terrorists ministry of propaganda”: that is why they cover zoning meetings in JerUSAlem but not anything “Green Iran”/ or Kurd et al.
By 1984, I perfected the strategy to avoid this war, which is essentially the same as we could now use to win this war.
Convert all cars to domestically produced ethanol (Brazil does, The BTU canard “thang” and other invalid objections aside)…let us assume I am correct, and by 1984 I built a distillery and converted my car to ethanol…Biggest problem with ethanol is the canard effect and the Stupid American effect(defined as: “financing the war against yourself every day at the gas pump) : “well I can get gas for 9 cents cheaper”, and when we build stills the Islime oil just drops the price to bring the “stupid American” effect and rust out our stills. Solution: minimum price of gas at the pump is $1.85. (One law, one sentence)
Islime wants 6th century, let them have it. Use air force to enforce no fly zone around Iran, Iraq, Saudi, Syria, Somalia et al. Bomb their electric plants, close the ports, cut their phones and internet until they surrender and we set the school curriculum and control the press, and I do not mean the current thugs that control the American Maim Stream Media.
War ends, we win.
‘Israel should just withdraw from the Golan Heights.’
Nice piece of real estate there. Sometimes a cow hits a land mine. Good wines. The windmills generate near all needed power but water is still an issue.
Can you imagine the commerce? Both countries could see economic growth. Maybe a deal could happen where current operations could continue.
Anyway won’t happen. To be honest I doubt that it would be in Syrian best interest to sign on to a US led alliance even with a nice deal with Israel as bait at this point.
Nice data about proxies. Thanks! Would a proxy also be worth it browsing the internet?
I’m your frequent reader. Can you explain me how do you battle with remarks spam in your site?
usually i just let them go. when a remark is totally off topic i “spam” it.
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