Still, I don’t think there has been anything in recent history that compares to the regime’s planned actions. All internal communications are supposed to be shut down: internet, cell phones, SMS, you name it. Since this would in any case paralyze the country, offices, factories, banks and practically everything else will be shut down until the 14th; thus they can afford to shut down the internet. The Chinese have reportedly provided essential services (including internet) for key security offices and Khamenei’s residence.
This does not look to me like a strategy for a “final solution;” it’s more like a desperate throw of the dice with fighters of unproven courage and reliability. We know, after all, that considerable numbers of trained police have been fired of late, that their replacements are “country boys” with little experience and probably poor discipline, and that the ex-police are likely to have become (if they weren’t already) Green recruits.
While exact numbers have not been secured, Fox News is reporting that sources within Tehran are reporting that 20 to 30 percent of the police force are being let go. That equates to roughly 5,000 officers and more that have been dismissed throughout the country.
Meanwhile the officers that have been let go are being replaced by 700 to 900 civilians during times of protests and those numbers falling during times of peace.
A former police officer told NewsCore that the police are bring replaced by village people who desperately need money and would [use] violence without hesitations.
Forces are typically under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, and they are responsible for keeping local peace. Now sources report that they will be much less organized and possibly have much less control.
One former officer was reported saying, “Many of us are being replaced by bus loads of people from villages who are willing to do anything for a piece of bread instead of protecting the ideas of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.”
What, then, to do? Khamenei has ordered the massacre of the country’s youth, especially journalists, academics and activists, especially women. Their treatment is atrocious, as you can see from this tweet: “Ordinary prisoners are protesting, saying screams, noises, sobbing & crying of injured from Sepah (intelligence forces) section keep the entire prison awake.”
On the other hand, every night the doors of Evin Prison open, and ten or twenty battered citizens emerge to a waiting crowd of relatives, praying that this will be the night for their own loved ones to be released. Inevitably, this has turned into an ongoing protest that the Basiji themselves have been unable to quell. On Friday night, more than a thousand people gathered at Evin, and the Basiji tried unsuccessfully for more than three hours to drive them away.
The leaders are even spooked by the color green, which is inconvenient, since it’s in the flag. Ahmadinejad recently appeared on television with the flag in the background…and the green had become blue(!). Just as poor Captain Hook lived in dread of the sound of the ticking clock, so Ahmadinejad dreads the sight of green. This is not a sign of great resolve. If you want great resolve, listen to Mousavi:
The people know that these executions are only [carried out] so that a brutal, ruthless leader of Friday prayers – one who has constantly defended corruption, violence and deception – can applaud them. It matters not to him that there are abundant [instances of] forced confessions, and he does not care that [those executed] have had nothing to do with the election. For him, what matters is the power of the executions to generate fear. He is ignorant of the power of innocent blood. He doesn’t know that it was the blood of martyrs that caused the Pahlavi regime to collapse. From the revolution onwards, people have believed in freedom, independence and the Islamic Republic. The courageous resistance and the strength of our people and our soldiers during the eight year war was a sign of the fundamental changes that had taken place in our society…parts of our country were lost in the wars, crises and political games present during the time of the shahs [kings]. The courageous resistance of our people during the eight-year war ended this vicious cycle. And now, in the courageous, defiant and green rows of people who demand their rights, we see a continuum of the very struggle we saw during the war and the revolution.
He’s telling Khamenei what he least wants to hear: We Greens are the true revolutionaries and we cannot be intimidated. We will keep fighting until you are gone.
It’s astonishing and sad to see how our “intelligence community” persists in believing that the protests are merely a blip on the screen of the Islamic Republic, a momentary phenomenon that will shortly go away. The “experts” are nothing if not foolishly consistent: they failed to predict the results of the June “elections;” they failed to anticipate the aftermath; they thought the demonstrations would diminish and then end; they seem not to comprehend the depth of the regime’s crisis, and they expect the regime to triumph. As Eli Lake tells us,
Despite political turmoil that has brought hundreds of thousands of protesters into the streets since the June 12 presidential elections, Iran’s decision-making process would remain the same, [Director of National Intelligence Admiral Dennis Blair] said.
Overall…he gave he protesters little chance for success. “Strengthened conservative control will limit opportunities for reformers to participate in politics or organize opposition,” he stated. “The regime will work to marginalize opposition elites, disrupt or intimidate efforts to organize dissent, and use force to put down unrest.”
To which Eli permits himself the obvious retort:
The U.S. intelligence community in the past failed to foresee political events in Iran. For example, a noted CIA assessment of Iran in the fall of 1978 predicted there was no prospect for an Islamic revolution. That prediction proved wrong within five months.
He could have added that CIA was positive that Gorbachev was firmly in control just before the fall of the Soviet Empire. Revolutions aren’t easy to see; you need a good nose to sense it, and the sense of smell is frowned upon at institutions of higher learning and deep thinking.
Still and all, this revolution is the biggest we’ve seen in a long time. Lenin, who thought such things were led and organized by a tiny, conspiratorial vanguard, would be astonished to see that tens of millions of Iranians, from all classes, tribes, ethnic groups and sexes, are defiantly putting their lives on the line.
Anyone think the good Admiral will resign when the regime comes down? He should.
UPDATE: thanks Instpundit (with Michael Totten subbing for Glenn)
UPDATE 2: Not everyone is waiting for the 11th; seems the citizens of Lar have driven the local security forces out of town. There’s even video.
Nope.
He will pull an Obama and claim that he has always said that the regime would fall.
And that will go over about as well as the rest of the Administration’s serial lies.
Not a snowball’s chance in hell the Admiral will resign. There is no accountability in this administration. If the criminal regime is toppled next week, Obama will blame Bush for the lack of intellegence.
In the meantime, thoughts and prayers go out to the brave Iranians. I deeply admire their resolve.
No one should resign for offering an opinion, especially if that opinion contradicts established authority. If anyone is to resign, let it be the authority who failed to seek out contrary and possibly unpopular opinions before they made their decisions, and then events caught them completely by surprise.
If a world-wide consensus against theofascism in Iran is to be successfully mounted, it will need to hear the opinions of intelligent and patriotic men like Admiral Blair. If our arguments are not strong enough to overcome his informed opinion, then why call for his resignation for simply doing his job?
We should be concentrating on making our case air-tight and irrefutable, and Admiral Blair’s opinion obviously reflects that we still are unable to make our best case. There is a much better case to be made for regime change in Iran than those proposed so far, but so long as we refuse to make it, why complain when others offer an honest, counter opinion?
Michael, I hope you keep track of Toby Harnden, the US editor of the Telegraph newspaper. Especially his blog.
Thank god that Great Britain isn’t only known as Perfidious Albion.
So, getting back to Harnden (because he had a recent piece as to whose heads would roll), I suspect Admiral Blair will keep his position, because it would be too inconvenient for the deformed souls, reprobates, scalawags and similar ilk to admit a mistake, especially when the only two choices are profoundly distinct.
Allahspeed, Iranian brothers!
Hate to say it, but sometimes bloody is the way to go…history is replete with examples.
“Faster Please”???
A lot of people are going to die, Michael. Millions of others will suffer horribly, no matter the outcome.
Perhaps it is better to die in a struggle for freedom and liberty than to be sheep led to the slaughter, but “Faster Please”? That’s a heartless sentiment, especially in view of the blood that has already been shed.
However, such things are not only happening in Iran, but in a number of nations around the world. Globally, people have become weary of ‘big government,’ no matter their own religion, culture, history or the political background of that nation. In America, the T.E.A. Party movement, as a whole, is a manifestation of that same phenomenon.
While we should keep an eye on the details, when you look at the big picture, something is happening – globally, at the grassroots level – that most people have overlooked.
While keeping an eye on the big picture and watching the details of the daily news cycle, we must also in mind that those who suffer and die for their freedoms and liberties are real people in the real world. People who are much like ourselves and who have very similar dreams and desires as our own.
My prayers are with the Iranian people. Hopefully, a new regime will come about. Iran pre-revolution was not an ideal place, but it was becoming a somewhat modern country. Hopefully, they will be able to get it back.
We don’t have enough information to make predictions on the possible success of the new Iranian revolution. The protesters are not armed, the gov’t. is run by ruthless ideological fanatics, many with a large financial stake in holding on to power. Nonetheless, there have been relatively few casualties – I would have expected a death toll in the thousands which indicates something. I also would expect major general strikes to paralyze the country – this has not occured.
Policy towards Iran should disregard the current unrest – the outcome of the uprising is uncertain, what is absolutely certain is the Iranian nuclear program which can only be stopped by military action & eventually, forced regime change.
I watched the beautiful video put out by the Greens that Ledeen has linked to from this posting. I pray for the good, good people of Iran; and I will redouble my efforts on 2/11. I wonder, though, about balancing the need for courage — to seize the day, which appears to have come at last — against the wisdom of fighting another day. What if the Greens did not show on 2/11, but instead arrived 2/9 or 2/15? Or why not have a day or two on 2/9, before the main event? If this protest can be a day of the Greens’ choosing, why not keep the regime guessing? The regime cannot possibly keep its increasingly disorganized and ragtag forces mobilized for more than a brief moment.
I wonder what the Israelis are thinking. Can they depend on this green revolution or should they use this confusion to their and all of our great relief?
Michael: As always, I hope you are right. That said, This is starting to sound like the Mullahs are pulling out all the stops, intimidation wise. Also, while there are sporadic marches occurring at Random intervals, it seems both sides set their major “demonstration” days to occur on regularly planned major “holidays” (for lack of a better word.)
If the Army stays out, the Greens will be beaten down and the status quo remains.
If, as you noted earlier, if the Army joins the opposition a la 1979, then the Mullahs get kicked out.
For Conservative Wanderer: As for firing Intelligence Officers when they make mistakes, look up the career of Edwin T. Layton…He blew it at Pearl Harbor, but was the unsung hero of Midway. Intelligence officers are supposed to look at the facts and give their assessment. If the threat of firing or worse is held over their head for every opinion they give, then they will quit giving their opinion. Good Intelligence Officers are force multipliers if used properly. For all we know Admiral Dennis Blair might (or probably) has hundreds of correct calls under his belt..we fire him for one missed call?
This retired Intel officer is sticking to his call made last year in June and is still holding true:
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/06/ya-say-you-want-revolution.html
My call for the 11th: Lots of bloodshed, many arrests and not quite a few deaths and the regime keeps a lid (for the most part) on any outside press coverage. They are getting better at shutting down communications every time one of these events happen. By the 13th, relative calm in Tehran.
Finally: Don’t expect the Obama Administration to do much of anything other than give lip service. With Obama in Charge, the two key ingredients have been lost in our ability to conduct effective foreign policy: Respect and Fear. Being liked doesn’t count for beans…
Cheers,
ER White
Thank you Michael Ledeen and PJ Media. I have been following for months now. You have offered the only comprehensive and honest account of the situation that I have beeen able to find. Shame on the media, including Fox News. Shame on our government! This is the most important thing happening in the world today. God Bless the protesters.
Mousavi: “From the revolution onwards, people have believed in freedom, independence and the Islamic Republic.”
One can hardly fail to have great sympathy for the long-suffering, ordinary citizens of Iran at the hands of a brutal, totalitarian theocracy. I pray that the revolution succeeds, and the people achieve the liberties now denied them. But revolutions are inherently dicey, and the notion of an Islamic Republic may be, per se, problematic.
Let’s imagine that the revolution is successful and the government is overthrown; what then? How will a new regime organize itself and Iranian society? Will it abandon its militant proxies scattered around the world, back away from its nuclear ambitions, be moderate in the prosecution of Sharia law?
The outcome of revolutions is notoriously unpredictable, as the knee-jerk idealists who championed Castro’s “noble” uprising may recall. It is part of the American character to cheer-on the underdog — the underdog, which in victory, may be found rabid. It was the triumph of Khomeini, it seems to me, that inexorably led to the current state of affairs.
Who can reliably predict the political end-state if the Greens succeed? Will liberty flourish (as one hopes)or will the new revolutionary leadership follow the Ayatollah’s admonition that “All those against the revolution must disappear and quickly be executed”?
This all sounds rather ominous and tragic. That Feb 11 anniversary date is also part of Ahmadinejad’s recent bombastic declaration. The president and the theocrats are not really on the same page, but they depend on each other, both triangulating against the street. What’s cooking, really? The first Islamic nuclear blast? Are the Ayatollahs & consort trying to save their skin by a display of power meant to preempt the green movement?
The climax of epic contests for power are the stuff of revolutions and counter-revolutions. Are we merely on the sidelines?
A foreshadowing of coming events here at home?Don’t know, but at least we are armed. . . .
Warren Bonesteel (#10):
Oh, spare me! In case you hadn’t noticed, the clock is ticking. Once the current Iranian regime gets nuclear weapons (and possibly even before), then the Iranian people might well be on the receiving end of a barrage of Israeli nuclear missiles. Whether the protesters realize it or not, they are not “merely” fighting for their liberty but for their very lives. But by all means, do continue favoring Michael and the rest of us who have been following this situation for years with your cheap and pointless moralisms.
Unarmed students and other protesters facing off against armed militia and other thugs?? Doesn’t sound too good to me. What is going to happen when the militia open fire and the students start to fall in the streets. You can’t have a peaceful revolution against an armed thugocracy. If the Iranian protesters are counting on American President Barry Obambi for support, any kind of support at all, they will be sadly disappointed. Feb 11th sounds like it’s going to be an interesting day but at the end of the day I expect there to be blood running in the streets and the bodies of slaughtered protesters being dragged off to be buried in mass graves.
From my website’s post-
The Iranian revolt would be farther along had GWB still been in the White House. Frankly, it is my opinion this was his and his people’s goal all along. Too bad it was set up beautifully only to have Obama whiz all over it like a drunk frat member.
However, even without our support I think the people will win in the end. It is a numbers game, and even though the regime is executing a large number, it is not nearly enough. Now the local police are being fired and replaced with more violent and untrained “country people.” As the author suggests this will backfire as the unemployed professional officer will be a prime recruit for the revolution’s Green Movement.
I hope so. This is going to get bloody before it resolves itself. So far, the military has been straddling the fence. They go over to the Green side and Charlie Manson’s younger brother will need to put the haul a** on to get out of the country. In addition, if the Revolutionary guard is met with armed resistance it also cannot win. Again it is a numbers game. The Green movement has put out a video (linked in the story above) that tugs at heart and I’m sure has persuaded more than one soldier or police officer to stop their actions. It is worth watching.
Pay attention to this and consider how brutal our government could get if we were unarmed. It is a lesson our founding fathers took to heart and one we should never forget. Remember humans are humans and tyrants can rise from anywhere.
Michael – I tend to be more pessimistic than you about the outcome. In general force almost always wins out over those who have no force. So, I would agree with Terry, Eilat Israel @ #12 and ER White’s word in his penultimate paragraph @ #15.
@ Terry, Eliat – israel
Although you are somewhat right, protesters are not armed, and there are few casualties but during regime change in Russia there were also few casualties.
It may be that the protesters will not achieve their aims, but one way or another, unfortunately, on February 11 there will be many more casualties.
Green Movement is somewhat similar to Islamic Revolution, it started small and it got bigger. And it is difficult to predict whether green movement will prevail now. Perhaps yes, perhaps no, but one should never disregard what is going now in Iran.
Never.
One should hope that Green Movement prevail because their winning will be our winning. Because if they win then perhaps Hizbullah will loose its supporter, perhaps Hamas will get no more weapons, perhaps you, Terry will not need to be afraid of Iranian nuclear bomb.
Of course it will depend on who will get into power in the new government. There may be no major changes in the international policy and one have to be prepared for that possibility. But it is possible that new Iranian government will decide to change the direction of its policy, and will decline to spend money on their militant proxies. Instead the new government may concentrate on economic improvement of the country.
That’s why one have to prepare for the worst, but nevertheless one may cheer the Green Movement. And decline to disregard them. Because one never knows. Because it may be that Green Movement victory will also be our victory, as well as yours too, Mr. Terry, Eliat from Israel.
I, too would like to see the ayatollocracy go down hard.
But if they had anything even close to a working nuke ( cf Kim Jong Il) they would be screaming it to the skies.
thanks mike; if any readers don’t know mike totten’s great work, now’s the time to get smart.