There are lots of starfish in this movement, and the regime knows it. That is why, with all the brutality that has been unleashed, the mullahs still recoil from arresting the troika. They know that such an act would fill the streets, and they also know that many members of the security forces would stand aside, or even join the revolution. They are groping for a solution, hoping that eventually the people will lose hope and give up. Meanwhile, they reveal their sadism on a daily basis, which makes the people even angrier.
But even a movement like this one cannot flourish without good leadership. Anyone looking at the behavior of the anti-regime crowds cannot help being enormously impressed with their discipline. Slogans are prepared and chanted, signs and banners are brandished at the security forces, green arm bands, head bands and wristlets appear at just the right moment. This points to organization, not pure spontaneity. The regime leaders constantly tell the Iranians that the whole movement is controlled from outside Iran by some malevolent force. They may well believe it, but it is not so. Incredibly, I do not know of any foreign government that has contacted the Greens, and very few foreign leaders have condemned the repression with any significant vigor or continuity (Sarkozy being the exception that proves the rule). It is the regime that has foreign support, from friendly tyrants in Moscow, Beijing, Damascus, Caracas and Pyongyang. In his quiet and determined way, Mousavi has created an impressive organization, and although it is very difficult to communicate with his followers (Mousavi is under virtual house arrest, especially at moments of high tension), somehow he and his people have found ways to do it.
They also do something very Persian: they speak in code. Mousavi has been very careful not to say what everyone believes he means: the Islamic Republic must come down. If he were to say that, or any number of other incendiary things, he would give the regime cause to accuse him of treason. So he doesn’t say it. He says that the Constitution must be respected, although perhaps there is room for some modification. The whole country understands the meaning, but literal-minded analysts can say that he isn’t really calling for revolution. You have to watch the winks and nods to understand what’s going on. This isn’t the time for lit crit 101; movie critics will do better.
Years ago, from the immediate post-war period through the 1960s, there was a considerable literature on revolution, but it seems to have fallen out of fashion in recent years, even though we are living through one of the most revolutionary periods in human history. I think this is because the Left, having lost its revolutionary vocation and having become an apologist for the communist tyrannies of the Cold War, was unwilling to acknowledge that “conservatives” had become the most effective defenders of liberty. Since Reagan had to be denounced as a reactionary, it was impossible to recognize that he, Thatcher and John Paul II subverted the Soviet Empire and contributed to revolutionary successes in Latin America, Africa and Asia. Today it is very difficult to find anyone on the “progressive” side of the spectrum who recognizes that Iran fulfills all the conditions for full-scale revolution. Most everyone is hypnotized by the nuclear question, and the potential world-historical event–the fall of the Islamic Republic, with the attendant blows to jihadist organizations from al Qaeda to Hamas and Islamic Jihad–is ignored.
Most of the writing about Iran recalls the bad old days of Kremlinology, when Sovietologists spun out fanciful theories about conflicting factions within the Kremlin, and “explained” Soviet behavior by reference to domestic politics, instead of recognizing the thing for what it was: an evil empire. President Obama contributed to that sort of confusion on Monday, in an interview with Reuters. Kicked yet again by an Iranian regime that has no intention of doing anything that would prevent or delay its development of atomic bombs, the president whistled in the dark:
An unsettled political situation in Iran may be complicating efforts to seal a nuclear fuel deal between Tehran and major world powers, President Barack Obama said on Monday.
Obama told Reuters in an interview that the United States had made more progress toward global nuclear non-proliferation in the last several months than in the past several years.
“But it is going to take time, and part of the challenge that we face is that neither North Korea nor Iran seem to be settled enough politically to make quick decisions on these issues,” he said at the White House.
Blast those annoying Iranian revolutionaries! How dare they screw up our negotiations?
Funny world, isn’t it? The Islamic Republic teeters on the edge of history’s garbage dump, a fascinating revolutionary movement bids to change the world, and peace prizes are given to an accomplice to evil–Mohammed al Baradei–and an American president who won’t throw his moral weight behind tens of millions of Iranians who are risking their lives to be able to have a government like ours.
Great article Michael.
Of course obama won’t throw his (im)moral weight behind the brave Iranian people who want a government like ours. obama wants to change our government into something less than it is. These are dark days and obama is on the wrong side of history. Let’s pray the American people wake up in time to put a halt to this slide into despotism that we are on. If not, may God help us.
The posture of western “leadership” is best explained, I believe, as a function of moral cowardice, not ignorance. I think even the Obama administration and it’s far left inner circle recognize that Iran is on the brink of revolution, but it’s easier to sit on the sidelines than deal with the consequences of acknowledging, let alone openly supporting, the people of Iran. Sad, but true.
Seems like the gist of your thoughts here, Dr. Ledeen, is that we can add “Washington” to your list of capitals from which tyrants friendly to the mullahs work to prop them up.
It is very nice that they are resisting their government. They DO however need to get off the freaking dime and overthrow those ass clowns or there is going to be hell for all of us to pay because they failed to get the job done.
Great article.
Obama is missing the Forrest for the trees. A responsible, respectful Iranian republic can have nuclear weapons. The French Republic has nuclear weapons and the H-bomb to boot. We don’t care because France is a pillar of civilization. History remembers the Berlin wall falling not the arms control agreements.
A responsible, respectful Iran republic would be a huge boon to world peace. Hezbollah and Hamas would wither on the vine. Syria would give Israel a peace accord. Iran would work to quite Afghanistan and Iraq. Most importantly the Iranian people would be free and free to contribute to world culture as they had done in the past.
Obama is a moron. He wants good relations with the world evil actors. He needs to condemn those helping the Iranian security crack down.
God Bless the Iranian people. Make the sacrifices needed for freedom, it is worth it.
Parallel worlds. The “realists” indulge in abstractions and rehash conventional verbiage, while the revolutionary forces push their cause in relative silence.
This is not the first time the ignorant proves to be more vocal than the wise. Whenever the POTUS is morally paralyzed, proceed in spite of him! The defeat of the theo-thugs from within is certainly more appealing than their defeat by military means.
Please discard the previous posting. It wasn’t completed yet.
These are the facts in regard to the people uprising in Iran:
1) It is being conducted mostly by young , energetic, freedom loving, and anti-ideology except for the democracy crowd.
2) It respects Mousavi and others who claim they support the people, but only to get its message across.
3) It is a self-motivated process implementing different groups. While they all believe in the tenet of democracy and separation of religion from the government, they act independent of each other.
4) The young people who are also fearless, are conducting the first educated revolution in the history of mankind, and intentionally are not creating an idol.
5) They have designed a genius strategy which is dynamic and as such doesn’t carry the signs of rigid and static ideological based revolutions.
6) So far they have been able to accomplish the following, which step-by-step dismantling of Khomeinism backwardness:
a. They started with questioning the result of the election, with a very peaceful demonstration.
b. At the moment that Ahmadi-Neajd tried to dismiss the uprising by calling freedom seeking young people: “Khas O Khashak” (Straw and Dust), people called him off and demonstrate against him. Mainly incapacitating Ahmadi-Nejad and his administration.
c. They attack one of the fundamental tenant of the Islamists (Friday Prayer), and at the same time introduced their displeasure with Russians. They also started chanting: “Down with the Dictator” at the same time.
d. Next opportunity they got, they dismissed another very fundamental tenet of Khomeinsim, so-called “Gods Day” (Jerusalem Day), and demonstrated to the world that they don’t acre about Palestinian Terrorists in Gaza, and Lebanese counter part in Lebanon by using slogans such as: “No Gaza, No Lebanon, my life is only for Iran”. At the same time continue their “Down with Dictator” slogan, pointing at the supreme leader himself and completely ignoring Ahmadi-Nejad and making him an irrelevant figure.
e. Next which was last week, on the occasion of hostage taking anniversary, for which Khomeinie called it 2nd revolution, people took to the street, and not only they didn’t chant any slogan against US which is customery of IRI, they continued with their “Down with Russia: slogan, and add to it “Down with Khameni” directly attacking the symbol of Khomeinst backwardness and dictatorship
When one thinks all these heroic demonstrations are conducted against back drop of Khomeinist attacking , jailing, torturing, and raping these young people and their families, then you come to the same conclusion as I have, calling the Iran Uprising of 2009: “”A Genous Act and the most educated Revolution in Human History” , comparable only to US independence Revolution, which is so far a revolution which ahs benefited the man kind.
It is only up to Mr. Obama and other leaders of the West, to demonstrate they really believe in freedom and democracy, or interested only in resources of Iran by following the backward Carterism.
By that count, Michael, the Chief Deformed Soul in the Oval Office, and his hordes of deformed souls, zombies, and other ilk with their paws on the levers of power inside the Beltway, they have made themselves illegitimate.
A US government in exile would have the credibility that the aforementioned threw out, and would strengthen the co-ordinated foreign
policies of the most advanced democracies within the British Commonwealth, as referred to by Conrad Black here, http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2165496 as well as the hoped for similar phenomenon of those countries which were behind the iron curtain (plus anyone else who wants to join in) with the foreign policy based upon the Borjomi Declaration.
The prize is there for the taking, who has the chutzpah to reach for it?
Thank you for this excellent article. I look forward to this historic event.
Michael, changing gears, isn’t the anniversary of the Marines coming up? As written here: http://news.discovery.com/history/marine-corps-celebrates-234-years.html
yup, it was today. i’m still drinking heavily. knob creek. you oughta try it.
Dr. Ledeen,
If the overwhelming majority of the people of Iran hate the regime and want to replace it with a consensual human-rights respecting constitutional order, doesn’t that negate the theory that an Israeli or US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would only cause the Iranian people to rally in support of their government, thereby strengthening the regime? Isn’t it more likely that the people of Iran are too far gone for this regime ever to regain their support?
indeed.
On that note, the French were welcomed with open
arms by Spaniards, when the Spanish Inquisition
was ended by French military action. I seem to recall a fictionalized version of this in “The Pit & The Pendulum” by Edgar Allan Poe.
Although the executive branch sets foreign policy in the American system, it does so by consent of the governed – not by Divine Right.
Is there any way that We The People can support these brave Persians (I have a Persian friend who always bristles at being called “Iranian”) who are putting their lives on the line for constitutional democracy?