These little stories illustrate a great event, indeed a world-changing event: the death of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, and the rest of the evil empire in Tehran, are all dead men walking. We don’t know the schedule for the funeral yet, but Iranians know it’s on the agenda. One will get you ten at my betting window that, aside from a very thin veneer of top officials (for whom there is no hope, for they will fulfill the demand of the nightly rooftop chants), anyone who is anyone in Iran today is trying to make a deal with Mousavi and Karroubi. They are all whispering that their hearts are green, and always were green.
Khamenei & Co. certainly know this, as they know they are being betrayed by some very high-ranking people. And the exodus is under way; by the end of the week we will see some important representatives of the Islamic Republic resign their posts, for they do not wish to be associated with it any longer.
Look at what didn’t happen in the streets last Friday. Not a shot was fired at the millions of demonstrators in Tehran. There are YouTubes of police fraternizing with the Greens. There are stories of Revolutionary Guardsmen helping the demonstrators, and even the Basij didn’t dare to attack or arrest, with a handful of exceptions (one of which is notable: in Tabriz, if I remember correctly, they started to round up some people, and the crowd turned on them, freed the would-be victims, and beat the Basijis to death).
And look at what else didn’t happen: nobody tried to arrest Mousavi or Karroubi. Somebody tried to stab Khatami in the street, but it was thwarted, and Karroubi has been told to show up at a Revolutionary Tribunal to respond to charges of spreading false claims of rape and murder in the prisons. But this subpoena, which previously terrified the recipient, is no longer threatening. Karroubi has proclaimed it is good news, for it will give him the opportunity to present the evidence, which is iron-clad, and can no longer be destroyed (copies of documents, audios and videos are now in the hands of Green supporters in Europe and the United States).
So we have a regime of zombies in Tehran, but they can still do a lot of damage, to Iranians and to us. Early last week Khamenei summoned Afghan terrorist chieftain Gulbadin Hekhmatiar to Tehran, and told him to step up attacks against American and other Allied forces. Other Iranian-supported terrorist groups have received similar instructions.
Under the circumstances, you’d think that your government would be talking to the Greens. But you’d be wrong. Perhaps Hillary Clinton thought she was telling the truth when she claimed, a few days after the insurrection of June 12th, that “behind the scenes” we were helping the Iranian opposition. If so, she shouldn’t have said anything about it, but I don’t think she was well informed. There are no contacts between the American Government and the leaders of the opposition. One should not expect the new government to look kindly upon a President Obama who publicly sweet-talked the Tehran butchers, and all but begged Khamenei for a few minutes of his precious time. The same applies to the Europeans, all of whom scrambled for oil and other commercial contracts, and none of whom talked to the Green leaders.
As so often, Martin Luther King Jr. summed it up perfectly: “In the end we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”
Another revolution ignored by the MSM. The web is now the place to find things out first.
Mr. Ledeem, please give it up, this is not 1980, we are in the hope and punt era. There is no champion of freedom on the world stage.
It does my heart good to see so many people throughout the world rejecting tyranny. To bad we don’t have a president who feels the same.
I detect something in this piece, a hint of victory on the horizon.
Let’s hope so. And please do not give it up
During the first wave of demonstrations after the election I followed twitters on #iranelection almost round the clock. It was clear to me that the vast majority of Iranians really really liked Obama. And they overwhelmingly thought he handled the situation well. If the Iranians themselves think he is fantastic, why should people outside of Iran criticize Obamas Iran stance? Everybody in the middle East loves Obama and hates Bush. I have seen no evidence of a single soul in the Middle East that does not prefer Obama over Bush. Why meddle in an obviously happy love affair?
….Outside of Israel of cause.
Fast-forward to 2010. Location: Washington, D.C.
“Look at what didn’t happen in the streets last Friday. Not a shot was fired at the millions of demonstrators in Washington. There are YouTubes of police fraternizing with the tea partiers. There are stories of National Guardsmen helping the demonstrators, and even ACORN didn’t dare to attack or arrest, with a handful of exceptions (one of which is notable: in Chicago, if I remember correctly, they started to round up some people, and the crowd turned on them, freed the would-be victims, and . . . . “
The Mullah Regime of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in Iran appears to be over.
What else this means awaits events.
The fact that our mainstream media is not reporting a foreign civil rights revolution because our current Presdident is on the wrong side of it says all that needs saying on that score.
Mr. Ledeen,
This could not be better proof of the success of the Bush administration strategy in the war on terror, particularly of the invasion of Iraq.
Our overthrow of Iraq’s Sunni tyranny, and the development of a democratic government there dominated by the Shiite majority, plus the great moral example of Ayatollah Sistani as a politically neutral religious leader, clearly encouraged the Iranian people to dump their own corrupt tyranny.
It’s funny how things work out like that. One might even suspect it was planned.
Bush never helped the opposition and he negotiated endlessly with the tyrants. So I give him a failing grade on all that.
It is very interesting, as you say, that so much of the opposition comes from senior clergy. Important, too. It seems they think that Islam is doomed in Iran if the Islamic Republic endures. Talk about paradox!
Michael, in “The Rocky Horror Picture Show” there is a song that has this line, “Let’s do the time warp, again”. If there is a better succinct description of the intellectual poverty of the Oval Office, Langley, Foggy Bottom, et al., I can’t think of it.
Plus, in “The Bear and Dragon” by Tom Clancy, the point was made that ideology is usually an excuse for behaviour. Well, leave it to the dead souls in Washington who have their hands on the levers of power to demonstrate that.
“The regime had launched a vicious repression following the challenges to the ‘election results’ of June 12th.” -Ledeen
Mr. Ledeen puts “election results” in quotes because he believes the result was fraudulent, despite there being no evidence whatsoever that it was. Iran is supposedly on the verge of revolution, but even they acknowledge that Ahmadinejad is the legitimate president. Thet’s weird:
“Most Iranians express acceptance of the outcome of the Presidential election. Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran’s legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results, while 21 percent say they have some confidence. Just 13 percent say they do not have much confidence or no confidence in the results. In general, eight in 10 (81%) say they are satisfied with the process by which authorities are elected, but only half that number (40%) say they are very satisfied.”
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/639.php?nid=&id=&pnt=639&lb=
JL:
“the vast majority of Iranians really really liked Obama”
The title of the poll I linked to is:
“Iranians Favor Diplomatic Relations With US But Have Little Trust in Obama”
But I guess your tweet results are more scientific than the poll.
Project Infinite FReep is underway… check url for details!
Thoughts as to how, or if, a change of power to Mousavi or Karroubi would alter the nuclear arms picture?
Hey, David:
It’s just a jump to the left/
And then a step to the ri-i-i-i-ight/
With your hands on your hips/
You bring your knees in tight…/
Don’t forget: none of this would be happening if Saddam were still in Teheran.
The Weakling presently in the White House will leave Afghanistan before 2012. He does not have the strength shown by Dubya.
I’ve been thinking, too, about the American Civil War: it was terribly unpopular among Northerners by 1862. Yet. Lincoln pulled it off. He had courage. As Dubya had courage. And Obama does not.
Iran……since the 70′s this “comic book” country has dominated the newsworld with its unique brand of chaos and religious hocus pocus it blends with “a movement”. Like with Bush and Carter as well, many of us grow weary when political leaders are “lead” more by what their Lord tells them than common sense. We all pay the price.
Mr Ledeen:
I am delighted to read your remarks of September 21, 2009 about the situation in Iran and the protests there on September 18th. They are most encouraging. Shame on all political leaders, who profess to love freedom, for their silence.
A revolution in the “Islamic republic” (whatever that means) of Iran, and not a peep! Why the silence? because Bush was right?
Saddam Hussein was dealt with, Qaddafi backpedaled, The Syrian army got out of Lebanon, and now the Mullahs are receiving their public sentence! The dominoes are falling, and the Islamic regime turn has come?
Living in Southern California, I am in contact with several Iranian exiles. Today I had lunch at the Persian restaurant where I usually meet some of them. I was surprised to find the few I had a chance to engage today rather skeptical and uncredulous. Perhaps this is difficult for them to contemplate, and they need more tangible proof? Perhaps they have turned the page long ago and don’t care anymore?
I suppose Iranian folks will give their testimonies here.
this regime could have been brought down a while ago if only the american govt had wanted to. but it didn’t. why? that’s why I wrote “Accomplice to Evil,” it takes a book to think it through.
Iranian-Americans are typically more interested in ideological purity than in bringing down the mullahs. Lots of them have come to believe that the supreme leader et al are diabolically brilliant and never make a mistake. so it’s hard for them to realize that Midas has lost his touch…
Reply to Dave742:
Hahaha, you’r funny man. Your national lampoon poll joke was hilarious. As much as I enjoyed the laugh I’m sadden by your ignorance. I don’t know who owns that website or what kind of clowns running it, but one can just look @ one of thousands video’s smuggled out of Iran and find out whether or not Election result was legit or who the majority is. Have little dignity for yourself; too much clowning can sometimes backfire on you. I suggest you print a copy of that poll, roll it up and shove it privately.
I hope Michael Ledeen is right, that we are seeing the end of this cartoonish, but nonetheless dangerous, regime. But I wonder how different will a Mousavi and/or Karroubi ultimately be? Remember, they were there, at the founding of this so-called Islamic Republic. What will be may not be to different from what is and has been.
Michael,
Sure hope lots of pictures are taken on Friday September 25th.
Hip healed up enough to visit Tehran in a couple of months? I’m seriously thinking about visiting this winter with Diaspora friends.
Santa Barbara is beautiful, this time of the year.
Regards.
Are you kidding me? Why do they televised people’s uprising against Islamic dictatorship? Obama is following Carter’s policy of appeasing mullahs. Exactly on the day that Iranian people found out their children are being raped in jail, Obama sent a message to Khamenehi. Then today Kayhan, declared that IRI is buying boeing from US. People in Iran now realize all those talk about human rights are actually about oil and no one in the West particularly Obama administration don’t care a bit about violation of human rights by Mullahs in Iran. Iranian however are busy taking care of their own affair without the support of so-called democracies in the West. They came to the street and attacked the very symbol of Khomeinism, Ghods day. They said, no Ghaza, No Lebanon, my life is only for Iran. Now, if leaders of the world cared just a bit about human rights and not only the oil in Iran, and had a grain of dignity, they would wear green when Ahmadinejad is talking in UN, and walk away when he is talking. But they would not do it. Actually there is a big possibility that Obama start talking to Ahmadinejad ignoring all human losses and rapes by IRI government against Iranian people.
I’m all for the downfall of the Islamic regime, but I think calling this the death spiral of the regime is wishful thinking. A lot of those protestors are people who can afford to rebel. When working class and service level Iranians join in the fray and being nation-wide general strikes, I might believe something is going to happen quick.
How do you know the US government isn’t working behind the scenes, like it did with student groups in Serbia before Milosevic was brought down?
Obama coming out to support the protestors would only give the regimes goons a green light to use all and any means to clear the streets of the western ‘stooges’ protesting.
Middleman, trust me, this could not be more ominous for the mullahs. Police aren’t afraid of being publically friendly with the crowds, and the latter might have started beating the Basiji to death. Perception in-country is everything in these matters.
There are NO reports of Basiji dispersing crowds with gunfire. This is critical. The ultimate regime-protection forces are afraid to use lethal force in public. You may not remember the fall of the Shah, but I do.
Puff the magic dragon…
Kinda like he was working behind the scene with ACORN…
Contrast Obama’s reaction to Iranian protests, to Reagan’s reaction to the Polish protests of the early 80s.
Rinse and repeat.
‘And when the fans began to chant “Death to the Dictator,” “Death to Russia,” and “Death to Putin, Chavez and Nasrallah, enemies of Iran,”’
What, no “Death to America”?
What’s wrong with theses guys?
They aren’t going to get any sympathy from the western lefties unless they get up to speed with their chants.
Go protestors! Rock the Casbah!
How could Fox have ignored such an important story?
At some point the light bulb will come on and those of use with brain cells not heretofore destroyed by drugs will come to understand that it is Obama’s owners and controllers who wish the totalitarian regime to stay in power in Iran, Chavez to control Venezuela and Zelaya to illegally seize power in Honduras.
And how about that Crazy Prince Charles? How much money does he, through the Bank of England, have riding on controlling us serfs through nonsensical “climate change”?
Isn’t it always about money?
Dear Lord in heaven above, Now and Then just asked a pertinent question. I don’t watch Fox 24/7 but I do watch it a lot. Did I miss their coverage of such an important event? Did they not cover it? If not, why not? Any ideas?
say, IF Iran had no OIL, then no problem —> they could go f** themselves without anyone notice it, cuz they are all of the same stuff, greenies, Amadi’s, they don’t want any good for us !
so I’m for letting them to f** themselves, do we nee Iran Oil ?
“Iranian-Americans are typically more interested in ideological purity than in bringing down the mullahs. ” Because they are careful what they wish for Michael, and that’s an intelligent sentiment. You on the other hand seem to think this will happen without blood. Mullahs die, Persia lives. It’s simple. Tree of liberty and all that…
Once again my complements to Mike Ledeen.
It is a national embarrassment that the legacy news media is not covering the rebelion in Persia. They are going to look foolish and out of touch when the leftovers from 1979 are devoured by their angry countrymen. That goes for Fox too, an alternative media source who is out to lunch on this one.
If the Administration had sense it would realize that the dissolution of the theocracy might yield a more favorable environment for saving billions in defense that they could then spend on “do good” policy. It would signal the opposition positively.
I am appaled that our current version of the “shining city on the hill’s” government doesn’t understand that one of it’s fundamental tenants is being the primary promoter of freedom around the world. The legacy media and Fox don’t remember this either. Ignorance is bliss. The Iranian greens must be mystified at their isolation.
Millions in Iran’s streets, but no one up-linked any photos from their phones? We have satellites that can read a license plate from 100 miles away in space, but we have no photos of Iranian stadiums filled with protestors? The foreign press was thrown out of Iran during the election count, but none of them are reporting news from contacts they made before the elections? The political organizations of three unsuccessful candidates for the Iranian presidency have no photos of Friday demonstrations to put on the Internet?Because of their trade relationships, Iran is big news in Germany and Russia, but where are their reports of Iranian events on last Friday? No Twitter feeds, no Facebook photos?
Where’s the Voice of America in all this? Where’s the BBC Persian service? They are banned in Iran; but all the more reason for them to go get the story! How does the Voice of America NOT have satellite photos to show?
Where is UANI on all this political turmoil last Friday in Iran? They stopped a NY hotel from guesting Dr. Ahmadinejad this week; what’s that, compared to unreported events in Iran? Where’s Ambassador Holbrooke on Friday’s events?
I certainly hope that the theofascism is unravelling in Iran, but an actual picture of events would speak much louder than words describing those events secondhand.
“Mr. Ledeen puts “election results” in quotes because he believes the result was fraudulent, despite there being no evidence whatsoever that it was.”
Nobody can hold elected office unless the Mad Mullahs say they can. Every election in Iran is fradulent. All elections are rigged.
a Duoist,
You want pictures here you go (If one moved it a little):
More than 30 videos of the demonstration:
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=12D37DDB092DCE6F
Mousavi’s face book link with all the daily updates:
http://www.facebook.com/mousavi?ref=mf
Pictures:
http://www.pezhvakeiran.com/page1.php?id=15401
To dave742,
Very very funny!
Now all those in New York join the Iranians in welcoming Ahmadinejad to the UN. Make sure you take rotten eggs and old shoes.Lets give it to this monkey face.
Dave742:
“Mr. Ledeen puts “election results” in quotes because he believes the result was fraudulent, despite there being no evidence whatsoever that it was.”
Either you are a liar, a paid Tehran propagandist, or the most purblind imbecile in the history of the Internet.
Kourosh
You are kidding. When Green Wave started protest they asked the West not to meddle in Iranian affairs, now you changed your mind? I am all for the green movement in Iran and I think that it is ridiculous that Obama and the MSM are quiet about protests in Iran but, at the same time, I understand the western governments. The western governments were told so many times not to meddle in the Iranian/Egyptian/Jordanian/Saudis/MUSLIM affairs that they are confused. They were told by you people that when Bush was talking about democracy it was about oil, they were told that when French were talking about Lebanon that was about imperialism and support for Israel, they were told that when Canadians were talking about Iran it was about colonialism. And now suddenly it is changed. When Obama is not talking about democracy and the protest he is thinking of oil. When west is not meddling in Iranian affairs – west does not care and is arrogant. I wish Iranians decide – either you want support of western governments or not.
I, as a person, support green movement, and wish I could go to NY to protest against Ahmadinejad and his selected government. However many in green movement still talk about lie-demorkacy of the west, western arrogance and imperialism. Many mullahs and Iranians who go and protest against Ahmadinejad talk like that and do not want to change international Iranian policy so the question is: why should western governments support such people ?
Dr. Ledeen,
I would like to hear your best estimate on the expected future timeline. In your opinion, how much time does the Islamic Republic have left? This could be a critical, even existential question for people in Iran as well as here in Israel.
Just as Hitler was counting on his secret weapons to reverse the course of the war and keep the Nazis in power in Germany, the Islamic Republic crowd is probably counting on their nuclear program as their own ace in the hole. If they really are only months away from being able to assemble a nuke or if – God forbid – they already have one, they could choose either to test it as a warning to the rest of the world and to their own people, or actually attempt to use it against Israel, the U.S. or another target (without a prior test, as with the untested “Little Boy” bomb detonated over Hiroshima), thus inviting a nuclear response which would ensure that even if the Islamist didn’t survive to stay in power, their opponents’ victory would be purely “Pyrrhic”, with nothing much left in Iran to govern but the rubble.
Extreme fanatics who foresee their own doom can make very dangerous decisions. Hitler issued his famous “Nero decree” in March 1945. Goebbels left his wife instructions to kill herself and all of their children. In recent years the Islamist role model seems to be the suicide bomber, and Shiites in particular have a long and revered history of suicidal last stands. So if the Islamic Republic has enough time left to build a nuke, the Islamists could choose to make a very ugly exit from the world stage.
So what do you think? Days, weeks, months, years? How much time before they fall?
13. dave742
No I don’t think reading tweets is scientific.
I still would like that just one person from inside Iran request what Mr. Ledeen proposes in order for me to be convinced. Be it Twitter, polls or some other outlet. So far I have not seen it. Not in your poll either.
Someone somewhere from inside Iran should say: “Obama please speak up”. They don’t. I wish they did. But they don’t.
What do you think yourself the poll means? Do you think that the fact that only 16% trust Obama means that he should change his approach? The poll also says that only 6% trusted Bush. Not exactly an endorsement for the Bush approach.
The poll also says that 81% of Iranians basically are happy campers that are totally satisfied with the way government works. That number in my opinion makes the poll seem just a little fishy.
A wonderful opportunity to make, if not an ally, at least a neutrality for a while – but we have the wrong leadership. damn.
The media loses interest very quickly. It’s been a while since we’ve heard anything about sudan or zimbabwe (other than the BBC, as you point out).
There is a perfect storm brewing, but not one which will immediately benefit peace loving Iranians.There are urgent tasks to be dealt with first.
It seems clear that due to the impending collapse of the brutal regime its leadership will become MORE dangerous than ever. First, they will be seeking to unleash what may very well be their last furious stand. Second, in doing so they hope to rally the nation around the Iranian flag.
Now, it is also clear that striking at Israel is certainly their top rallying cry. The leadership’s impending collapse might be the real reason why the Iranian Hitler became even more bellicose towards Israel, despite strident international condemnation.
Surely Israel’s strategic planners are taking the above into account and we must all hope that they draw the obvious conclusions.
The best result would be the destruction of the main reactor facilities, the targeting of the regime and all its tentacles. This would then enable the freedom seeking Iranians to retake their country, but WITHOUT the means to threaten anyone else.
Mr Leeden, could you please provide us with some links so we can read firsthand the reports on which you base your analysis? Or perhaps a youtube video of the soccer game? I think I would find it very instructive.
er hmm, it seems that Iranians like to manipulate pics and numbers
here still the pic of a dead baby hold by a manifestant, this baby pic was already used by Palestinian videos propaganda in last january !
http : // www . iran-resist.org/article5601.html
This article breeds hope. But the issues of time mentioned by my fellow Israeli commenters are critical. My own analysis of the situation, that it is necessary to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran, to get around the likely response of the Americans to a lesser attack, and to get rid of the scum at the top once and for all, may be obviated by developments on the ground in Persia. But time is critical.
ah ben y’a d’la moderation sacrebleu
Essi55:
“I don’t know who owns that website or what kind of clowns running it…”
It is very easy to find this information. Maybe I can help you:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/about.php?nid=&id=
”one can just look @ one of thousands video’s smuggled out of Iran and find out whether or not Election result was legit or who the majority is.”
You cannot look at a demonstration and ascertain the percentage of people who think that an election is fraudulent. If you think you can, you are an imbecile. There are certainly people in Iran who want changes, and those people demonstrate. This does not mean that they necessarily all think that the election is fraudulent. Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in Washington a week or so ago. Does that mean they all think the 2008 election was fraudulent?
JL:
“I still would like that just one person from inside Iran request what Mr. Ledeen proposes”
I am not sure what you are referring to.
“Do you think that the fact that only 16% trust Obama means that he should change his approach?”
I think Obama should change his approach, but not because of Iranian opinion. Instead of making great speeches and then doing exactly the same thing as what Bush or McCain would do does not fool anyone outside this country. Everyone in the Middle East knows already that Obama says one thing and does another. Absolutely nothing has changed, and nothing ever will. Obama could change his approach and tell Israel that we are no longer their puppets, but I seriously doubt that will happen.
“The poll also says that 81% of Iranians basically are happy campers that are totally satisfied with the way government works”
No it doesn’t. The poll says that 81% of people think that Ahmadinejad is the legitimate president. That does not mean that all those 81% like him. I think Obama is the legitimate president of the US, and I hate him.
You bring up the percentage of Iranians that are “totally satisfied with the way government works.” One question asked if Iranians are satisfied with their system of government. The percentage that said they were “very satisfied,” which is close to your term of “totally satisfied with the way government works,” is 41%.
Bohemand:
“Either you are a liar, a paid Tehran propagandist, or the most purblind imbecile in the history of the Internet.”
Would you like to discuss your evidence that shows the election was rigged? Is it because you heard so on CNN?
39. dave742:
Like you say: “Everyone in the Middle East knows already that Obama says one thing and does another. Absolutely nothing has changed, and nothing ever will”
So basically no matter what Obama says or do, everyone in the middle east is gonna read some sinister motive into it.
If everyone in the middle east are gonna think Obama is an asshole either way, why bother to do anything? What’s in it for him? Why should he care about Iranians, if they are gonna hate him regardless?
So this is your selling pitch: Hey Obama, you punk, please throw Israel under the bus, convert to Islamic fascism and be grateful that you did the right thing even though no matter what you do, we are still gonna blame you for all of our problems and regard you as the devil on earth.
JL:
Your rhetoric is way over the top. Obama, and all presidents, have the option to treat all countries as sovereign nations, and not as countries that have to obey the US or Israel. If a US president ever did this, all problems would be solved. In reality, no US president will ever do this, and nothing will ever change.
To all our freedom supporting friends here in this blog: One important thing that you may not know is that majority of Iranian people in Iran for more than 80% had supported and for many they LOVED Bush during his first term. They loved him for his strong stand against the forces of islamo fascism and they loved his resolve and strength in dealing with Sadaam. They naively believed that Bush would take care of the mad mullahs next and do all he can to help Iranians get rid of their oppressive regime. This feeling did not last since Bush caved it really deep in his 2nd term to the lunacy of the liberal crowds and his opponents in his administration and abroad, therefore becoming a lame duck President. Iranians like millions of Americans here in the US became disfranchised, disappointed and many even started to brew some conspiracy theories that yes in fact the West is always after the tyrants and they will never stand by the brave on the right side.
I hope this little explanation helps some confusion there may be among people.
Also here I would like to offer some links to the new videos, youtubes, etc. on this past Friday’s protests in Iran. This website is also an excellent source for many freedom links and articles. It is run by an Iranian freedom fighting whose articles are regularly posted in American Thinker as well. He posts lots of youtube videos that come form Iran.
Check it out here:
http://www.amilimani.com/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=8
Thank you all and freedom for all!
How can an election possibly be legitimate if there were turnouts in excess of 100% in some precincts?
Mr. Ledeen: If what you wish for comes about, mullah obama will sorely pi**ed.
mythbuster:
“How can an election possibly be legitimate if there were turnouts in excess of 100% in some precincts?”
Because in Iran you do not have to vote in the town that you live. You can vote in the town that you work in, for example.
Picture a town where you live where there is a lot of industry or business, so lots of people work there, but not a lot of people actually live there. If you allowed people to vote in that town, it is very easy to picture more votes than residents.
This situation has been this way for decades. Nobody said a word about it until now. In many of the precints that had over 100% turnout, Ahmadinejad lost.
It is amazing to me that I live in such interesting times. We have societies that are reaching for interplanetary space travel and growing together, joining hands to share ideas and solve problems that affect us all. Then we have fairy tale countries right out of a Tolkein mythological world that actually exist with millions of people being ruled by actual stereotypical villains. It is almost like the Matrix, a Hollywood fantasy come to life. WOW !!! Think about, truly amazing.
Dear Mr. Ledeen,
I was so surprised to see your article in support of our people after so long. You are a well respected journalist by us Iranian, and believe me, we need your help and support more than any time now.
#43. myth buster: How can an election possibly be legitimate if there were turnouts in excess of 100% in some precincts?
=================================
Whaddya mean? That happens all the time in Chicago. Are you saying that Obambi’s home turf harbors election fraud?
Simply out of curiosity Mr.Ledeen (or anyone else), how many disciplined battalions does the opposition have, or does everyone expect the Mullahs to respect the crowds in the street and just leave? Hate to be the mourner at the wedding but without armed freedom fighters who will force down the palace doors and escort the old regime to the airport who cares how many demonstrations there are?
I have known some Iranians that are so smart and progressive and when they look at their …comic book country of today they are ashamed, angry and confused.
But then, look what happened to America in 2000.
Obama is responsible for every bad things that happens in the world
If ever there was a story that should be covered 24/7 on every network, it’s this one!
28. Now and Then: “How could Fox have ignored such an important story?”
I agree!
It’s ticking me off that we’re not getting more of it.
The weird thing is that it’s not simply an Important story, it’s a brilliant, compelling story that bleads a LOT!
It’s tailor made for the 24 hour news cycle and Obama could be hiding behind it…
Folks:
Amhanutjob going down the “Loo”. What a Sweet sound. It’s one thing to follow your religion, It’s another for it to beat you into the ground.
I hope the Green movement is successful, and soon. For the sake of the Iranian people, the neighbors of Iran, the world, and maybe me. I may need someplace free to go, soon.
“Would you like to discuss your evidence that shows the election was rigged?”
Once again…no one can run for a national office unless the Guardian Council say they can.
All the elections in Iran are rigged. They always have been.
(yes, millions–this according to Le Monde, France 2, and L’Express)
they took their briefings from the iranian propaganda Ministery !
we can’t rely on any sources, they are all more or less manipulating
often they use the same pics than the Palestinians, same family clientelism
I posted on Friday that come Monday, the Mullahs would still be in power. You deleted my post. Sorry, today is Tuesday and the Mullahs are still in power. Tomorrow will be Wednesday and the Mullahs will still be in power. In a week from tomorrow it will be the end of the month and the Mullahs will still be in power.
It doesn’t matter what flavor the kool-aid is or what you are smoking, in a week and three months it will be a new year and the Mullahs will be in power.
Get the picture? Deleting my post won’t remove the mullahs from power.
I do have a questyion for you Mr. Leeden. Hoe does it feel to know that people are being tortured right now because of your efforts? How about the ones that are murdered after following your encouragement of pointless acts of rebellion? Deny it all you want, you share the responsibility for encouraging people to follow useless actions that will get them killed or tortured.
Green revolutions DON’T work against bloody tyrants that have bully boys willing to kill for them It just gets people killed. A revolution agaist bloody tyrants requires more bloodshed. If you aren’t willing to kill as well as die, then don’t start a revolution against bloody-handed tyrants.
I don’t think I deleted any of your many comments, Mr. Birther. I tried to reply privately to you but your email address is bogus. Rather like your arguments, I would have said privately if that had been possible. On your generalization about ‘green revolutions” (which means something quite different from what I think you intend), I think that the KGB was certainly willing to kill for the Soviet regime, and had abundant blood on its hands. And yet the Soviet Empire fell at the hands of what the mullahs, following Havel, call “velvet revolution.” So the generalization is false. And as for your nasty suggestion that I shut up, sorry about that. If it bothers you, there are lots of other blogs out there that don’t advocate freedom. Help yourself.
“(yes, millions–this according to Le Monde, France 2, and L’Express)
they took their briefings from the iranian propaganda Ministery !
That’s strange MC, because majority of these millions wore green. Tell me, why Iranian propaganda ministry would acknowledge that so many people where demonstrating against Ahmadinejad using Qods day?
dave742
You are certainly an imbecile because only an imbecile could rely on the survey which was ” executed by means of computer-assisted-telephone interviewing by a professional research agency outside Iran. ….Telephone interviewing and an outside agency were chosen for this study.” Do you really think that non-Iranian agency can do a reliable survey in a country which is ruled by theocratic government? That Iranians will answer some funny questions over the phone? Iran is not Europe or US where people do answer more or less truthfully, Iranians worry that they may be imprisoned if they would talk with people from arrogant country
And the answers are funny (survey was dated september 19,2009)
How about the degree of civil liberties in Iran’s society – have gotten better 48% /gotten worse 23%
How about Iran’s relations with western countries – Have gotten better 33% /worse 30%
A lot of confidence in Ministry of Interior – 38%, some confidence 34%
A lot of confidence in President 64%, some confidence 21%, no confidence 6%
In general do you think Barack Obama does not respect Islam – 59%, respect Islam 25%
And the most funny answers:
Q18. In general how satisfied are you with the process by which the authorities are
elected in this country?
WPO WPO
9/09 2/08
Very satisfied………………………………………………..40% 18%
Somewhat satisfied…………………………………………41 44
Q21. How free and fair do you think this election was? Would you say this election was:
Completely free and fair…………………………………66%
Somewhat free and fair……………………………………17
Not very free and fair………………………………………..5
Not free and fair at all……………………………………….5
They are more satisfied now then they were last year?? LOL
Are you for real Dave? Do you really think that Iranians got that much confidence in Ahmadinejad and the fairness of the last election?
yeah, Ella you’re a trustful source LMAO
I can post some “objective” links that would corroborate my dires, but, for some raisons they won’t appear on board !
if I am an imbecile you’re an arrogant stubborn idiot
David Surls:
“Once again…no one can run for a national office unless the Guardian Council say they can.”
Yes, this is a valid point. But saying that candidates have to be approved is very different than saying the voting was rigged once the election was conducted. The situation in this country is not much better. Candidates in this country have to be approved by one of two nearly identical parties: either republicans or democrats. The way the system is constructed, if you are not approved by one of these two organizations, you will not win a high government office. This is intentional.
Ella:
“Do you really think that non-Iranian agency can do a reliable survey in a country which is ruled by theocratic government? That Iranians will answer some funny questions over the phone?”
They will march in the streets, but they won’t respond to a phone call. OK.
“And the answers are funny”
Poll results do not have to agree with your preconceived ideas that you form by watching CNN and FOX News. It may well be that your view of the world is distorted.
“Do you really think that Iranians got that much confidence in Ahmadinejad and the fairness of the last election?”
Yes. That’s what the poll says. In addition, I have not seen a shred of evidence that says the election was rigged. I do not believe something just because CNN says it. This is what happens all the time. Every single time someone is elected that the US or Israel does not like, that means the election was rigged. Doesn’t that seem “funny” to you?
I have a question for you:
When a site like Pajamas Media likes the result of a World Public Opinion poll, they will use the result for their argument:
“However, one nation’s failure might represent a glimmer of hope for another. A recent poll conducted by World Public Opinion found that Iranians — although still critical of American behavior — desire stronger relations, more trade, and more exchanging of ideas with their Western rivals.”
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/barbie-and-the-coming-revolution-in-iran/
When Pajamas Media uses a World Public Opinion poll, are they being imbeciles? Unlike you, my technique in reacting to new information is not to ignore what does not meet my preconceive ideas. If a valid poll says Iranians desire stronger relations with the West, then I will accept that Iranians desire stronger relations with the West. Strange how I can do this, isn’t it?
In the last few days, Islamic Republic of Iran could take brave and lasting decision that could guarantee its life for at least another 40-50 years in Iran. But that did not happen. I think from this point on, if and when changes take place in Iran, they are all toward complete change of regime in Iran.
The Assembly of Experts ended short time ago with clear 100% support for Khamenei and his great leadership. Instead of showing some balls in his removal and appointing a new leader, and to assure long life for this regime, this assembly FAILED to guarantee its own life and fertiled the ground for its eventual elimination. Nobody else could have done it this easy! Just as Khamenei pulled the trigger on himself by supporting Ahmadinejad, this Assembly did the same to lose its legitimacy.
By FAILING to do its duty, this will leave Iranian people no choice that reform and change within this structure is indeed IMPOSSIBLE and the whole system now must let go.
The challenge is that Iranians are tired of violent regime change, since they have done it once and went through a long war with Iraq and dealt with MEK cult that caused so much killing of Iranians. These have indeed made deep deep scar in Iranian memories, which gives them pause to push harder for drastic change. Having said that, I therefore find what Dr. Ledeen saying to be very incorrect:
“Iranian-Americans are typically more interested in ideological purity than in bringing down the mullahs. Lots of them have come to believe that the supreme leader et al are diabolically brilliant and never make a mistake. so it’s hard for them to realize that Midas has lost his touch…”
“Yes, this is a valid point. But saying that candidates have to be approved is very different than saying the voting was rigged once the election was conducted.”
Yes, I know it’s a valid point, that’s why I made it. The elections are rigged before a vote is even taken, so what happens after the rigging is done, is of no consequence. All that voters can do is rubber stamp the people that the mad mullahs have deemed acceptable as candidates.
Iran is not a democracy, it’s a self-perpetuating oligarchy under the control of the Supreme Leader (who, surprise, surprise just happens to be the guy who appoints the members of the Guardian Council). Elections mean absolutely nothing in Iran, and it’s about as democratic as the Roamn Empire was from the time Octavius turned Rome into a despotism.
And, that’s why your statement:
“Mr. Ledeen puts “election results” in quotes because he believes the result was fraudulent, despite there being no evidence whatsoever that it was.”
…is a lot of hooey.
“Candidates in this country have to be approved by one of two nearly identical parties: either republicans or democrats.”
Baloney. There is no such requirement.
MC
If you prefer IRI governmental sources – suit yourself, I don’t care.
Dave 742
Marching in the street you march with your friends and people who think (somewhat) like you do, answering unknown persons’ phone-call you don’t know who asks you and what would be the consequences of your answer.
Iran is not US, Canada or Europe, so stop measuring behaviour of people in different country by your own measure.
As for your question re: Pajamas Media – I don’t know what Pajamas Media would or would not do. I am not working for Pajamas Media.
Madame la donneuse de leçons, you’re framing me with some wrong intuitions, and supposed quotations from me, that aren’t !
and sorry I have no connection with any goverment
I know you for such a long time now, and each time I am amused to read your expertice of ME policies, and givin me lessons elsewhere too !
LMAO, must be your former eastern education that make you believe, that only those who were selected as gifted for becoming a frame of their state, that are infaillible
but you do love French people there, I remarcked !
Canada did a good thing today.We walked out on Irans leadership speech at the UN.The first country to do so after Israel.I sense lines being drawn in the sand.Its about time we dig in and take a stand on human rights worldwide.
Hi Michael,
Great arthicle like always!
I am very happy to see that you are so well informed on Iran.
You quoted Martin Luther King Jr. as saying that “in the end we will remember the silence of our friends”. Though I totally agree with you and am disgusted and angered by the Obama policy towards the mullahs, I have to assure you that the Iranian people will achieve democracy and freedom with or without the US and Europe. Of course it would help us out a lot if the US would recongnize the Iranian opposition instead of taking the side of the mullahs, but we have learned throughout the very hard years under the mullahs that if you are willing to pay the price of freedom, you will surely achieve it, as we did it in the time of Shah.
I wanted to thank you again for your article which educates people on how wrong the US and European policy is towards Iran.
Thank you as well for being one of our friends because in the end the Iranian people will never forget their friends.
Brian, don’t forget the others, US, France, Germany (?) she said she would, and …!
“How can an election possibly be legitimate if there were turnouts in excess of 100% in some precincts?”
Are you referring to Michigan, Ohio or Virginia?
LOL, MC
I like assumptions in your posts, they are always so out of kilter.
Try to guess again.
I don’t give a damn… of your lessons
Try to guess why !
As I read the article published by NY Times here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/26/world/middleeast/26intel.html?hp
and W. Post here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/25/AR2009092502227.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR ,
I’m having a sick feeling that even Obama’s policy toward Iran and basically handling the Iran case is moving, God-forbid, very similar to Iraq fiasco. As I read between the lines, I wonder if these current leaders are truly able to digest diverse amount of information and then making sense of them to truly handle this crisis or not.
I’m sensing immaturity and other incompetencies may cause serious failures. Unless portraying such immaturity is part of a large creative and smart plan to move forward, we are going toward very bad ending. While Bush had 10X more incompetencies, in dealing with Iran, even 1X amount is sufficient to cause disaster.
Just as BBC and VOA trying their best to portray Iranian uprising against Mullahs and Khomeinist as something not important, Iranian themselves are busy making their points any which way they can. Iranian have concluded all outsider voices are noise and they need to be filtered. Iranian believe as evident by actions of the Obama et. al being more concern about pleasing Chavez and his kinds, no one gives a damn about their struggle for freedom, and all outsider care is about oil and other economic consideration. Here is an example of “Iran Day” or “Ex-Ghods Day” demonstration. On the left side of the screen are anti-Khomeinists and on the right are supporters of Supreme thing. Judge it for yourself.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xNjSXRpb0E&feature=player_embedded
Reading comments posted by Roger Cohen gives me hope that indeed there are COMPETENT and TRULY smart and objective people out there who are able to provide light at very dark moments in crisis.
His today’s article in NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/28/opinion/28iht-edcohen.html?_r=1), I hope, will be seriously looked into for implementation.
Anything short of that will indeed causes more hardship for Iranians, Americans, Israelis and the whole world. Yes, it looks like people are more into feeling good kind of actions vs. REAL SOLUTIONS to help the situation.
Kourosh, thanks for the video. Very meaningful.
Yes I agree that to non-Iranians everything is about oil and nuclear power and that’s about it. Human rights and what to do in protecting Iranian people from wild animals does not fall into any of their charters.
Yes, Iranians inside Iran have ALWAYS ALWAYS relied on their own to help their country and making it better. That is why I find more sanctions will allow Iran to get better with its own sources and abilities.
I visited Iran 4-5 times since the revolution. In every visit, I was AMAZED and shocked to go to various Industrial and commercial shows in Tehran and see how impressive Iranian industries have made quantum leap improvements from years before.
Yet, others are thinking about blocking fuel to Iran or other low-IQ and low-INTELLIGENT alternatives to address Iranian problems.
And more shocking is that these people are PAID salaries, pensions and retirement money and so much money to f…ck anything and everything. Then many of them end up writing books (the more they caused damage, the more money they make) and pass their sh..t load to the next and on and on.
Alireza, I don’t know about quantum leaps but I know some people in Iran care so much about their country that even under this unbelievable and inhuman dictatorship they do anything to improve the conditions of life of their people. Certainly, these are not Khomeinists and Hezbolies because those animals only steal from and murder the people. To me if a nation is not free, it doesn’t matter how advance in certain areas of technology it become. Remember Soviet Union always and also NK has nuclear bomb, so what? IRI can’t be more advance than them. Certainly there is no new industry developed by Khomeinists worth consideration. The only thing they have done is either destroying the existing industries, or enhancing them in certain areas. That means nothing new at all. In 30 years they haven’t been able to build a single refinery, whereas they inherited 10-15 of them which were built with almost no money in comparison to today oil income over the last 15 years of the previous government. Now, it is a bazari / backward and bizarre economy and a semi-Kuwait / SA / Dubai in terms of importation. But in their case mostly Chinese junks some of which are poisoning Iranian people literally.
MAJARITY OF Iranian don’t want this REGIME AND WANT TO CHANGE IT ALTOGETHER FROM AN INHUMAN RELIGIOUSLY ORIENTED CHARLATANISM TO A MORE HUMAN ORIENTED SYSTEM WHERE STATE AND RELIGION ARE COMPLETELY SEPARATED. To demonstrate the ability of Iranian people and smartness in their struggle for freedom just watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHR1_4SNXFM&feature=player_embedded#t=60
The chants are:
1)Down with Russia (while a Basigi from the government is chanting Down with US / Israel).
2)Mir Houssain – Ya Houssain (for opposition leader Mir- Hossaini)
3)Long Live Montazeri, Saneie (for their opposition to Khamenehi)
4)Our Shame, Our Shame is our Mullahs Broadcasting (Radio / TV)
5)Long Live Karoobi (Another opposition leader)
6)Until Ahmadinejad is president, you will see these demonstration everyday
7)No to Gaza, No to Lebanon, My life is for Iran
8)The government of Coup d’état, resign, resign.
I’m not capable of view this website properly on chrome I feel there is a drawback