Faced with an impending dhowdown, the dissidents are debating what to do. They do not believe they can win a gunfight, and the leaders are adamantly opposed to any violent confrontation. At the moment, the consensus is to try to work on both the domestic and international fronts, asking the West for at least moral support against the regime, trying to subvert the security forces in the runup to Quds Day (stories continue to circulate about arrests of leading Revolutionary Guards officers, although none has been convincingly confirmed to my knowledge), and to get the maximum possible number of people in the streets for the protests.
The dissidents also believe that they have the overwhelming support of Iranian women, and it would not surprise me to see Mousavi’s wife play an active public role in the coming days.
If the regime fails to break the demonstrations, most anything can happen. If the demonstrations are effectively shut down, and the leaders are arrested, the standing orders from Mousavi/Karroubi to their followers is to launch a general strike and to stage non-stop demonstrations until…nobody knows. Everyone in the country knows this, and so in its way the arrests would launch the ultimate public opinion poll.
From the Corridors of Appeasement in the West, there are only whistles as the darkness intensifies. Yes, we will be happy to negotiate with the Tehran butchers, even though they tell us in every possible way that our one topic of “dialogue”–the Iranian bomb–is off the table. And there is even a story in the Iranian press today claiming that the United States has offered to swap more than a dozen Airbuses in exchange for the frozen Iranian assets that have been gathering interest in American banks ever since the Revolution.
All of which convinces the mullahs that they can do anything they wish to their people, and anything they wish on the nuclear front. Hell, nobody in this administration seems to want to talk about the cache of weapons and explosives of Iranian manufacture found in Herat Province (just across the border from the Islamic Republic), quite obviously placed there for the purpose of killing Americans and American allies. But the Pentagon spokesman shies away from saying anything mean about the regime: we don’t really know whether the regime approved this, and really this murder of Americans by Iranian proxies doesn’t amount to very much.
These spokesthings should spend half an hour with some military parents, and I’m happy to arrange the introductions.
This of course has been the real issue all along, the issue nobody wants to talk about: they’re killing us. They’ve been doing it for more than thirty years. And still we only want to talk.
This is the mental gyration that makes us accomplices to evil. You can read the whole story in just a couple of weeks.