To me, in a lot of ways, Iranian leadership has kind of painted itself into a corner. If a nuke goes off (in a terrorist attack), they’ll get blamed (fairly or not) for it, and suffer the consequences. If they use the nuke themselves, they’ll get hit back (how could Israel not?). If they don’t use them, then they’ll look like cowards/losers to their own fanatics, and like they wasted a whole lotta money for nothing to their moderates.

If only a ‘shouting match’ happens, where shipping rates in the PG go up a lot (due to a couple of mines going off in the sealanes), who has minesweepers, and who could declare that they’ll sweep lanes for oil-tanker convoys? The USN. (very little, but that’s a whole lot more than nothing). Who’d believe the Iranians. In fact, if a couple of mines went off, the US would actually come out ahead by over-emphasizing the problem, because then the insurance rates for tankers that aren’t in mine-sweeping convoys would go way up, and then nobody’d buy Iranian oil.

If a shooting war starts, then the Iranians might be able to stop oil shipment for days/weeks, but how long would their SSM launchers really last against the USN, UAVs, USAF, and the Sunni governments, before the launchers were eliminated, or simply that the risk had been determined, and factored into the insurance calculations? (just like they are with the Somalia pirates – it’s just “a cost of business”). In the meantime, Iranian oil shipments go to zero, their foreign investments are frozen, their government goes bankrupt. And most importantly, their mullah’s cash flow goes to zero, which means their mansions in Switzerland don’t get paid for.

Unless we shake off political correctness, the
biggest weapon available is nuclear warfare. Other than a tremendous amount of hard work by
men and women in military uniform.

Marc Malone, you are rusted-part of U.S. mentality that needs to be flushed, and I hear the flushing water already!

You’ll find how wrong you and people like you have been. So what’s the positive thing for you going? I’d say your ignorance is one way have kept your mental evaporation in delay mode. So in order you live pain free, I think you have no choice but to keep up your ignorance.

So my money is on Russia provoking the Iranians into something rash, for which there are reprisals far and wide in the middle east thereby reducing the available oil supply making the Russian supply more valuable. Look at all the technical support and military hardware they have sent to Iran in recent years.

Zero chance for peace in the middle east. Last guy who made the big attempt, Anwar Sadat got assassinated. Having the US and Israel greatly reduce Iranian oild benefits the Russians at no cost.

Talk about “wish fulfillment” that would take years to fulfill, if at all. And what do you think the Mullahs will be spending that time doing? – perfecting their atomic weapons and building more jails to house political prisoners. Silly, sappy nonsense from the people who brought you the “quick Iraq war” and the “new democratic Middle East.”

That his book has no straight line of rantionality makes it a waste of time to read.

“I myself think a deal can be cut with Iran. During the last 30 years, Iran has gone from a terrorist, revolutionary power to far more rational, calculating regional hegemon.”

well, that and he seems to have the backing of Seymour Hersh.

Sad for you to hear tho, that you stand a much better chance of that happening under McCain than Obama.