The Great Intelligence Scam
Yesterday’s big story was the Intelligence Community’s “Estimate,” according to which Iran unilaterally and secretly suspended its covert nuclear weapons program back in 2003, and hasn’t resumed it to date. We don’t know the sources and methods that underly this analysis, and it may well be that we have acquired some totally convincing evidence that justifies the astonishing conclusions of the IC’s assessment. But the “Estimate” itself is internally unconvincing–different agencies, notably the National Intelligence Council and the Department of Energy, are not convinced we have the full picture, and argue that we may not know whether the “halt” on which the IC hangs its analytical hat applies to Iran’s “entire nuclear weapons program.”
In other words, we seem to know that something was halted, but we don’t know if that’s the whole story. In Rumsfeld’s famous words, we don’t know what we don’t know.
The most interesting part of the “Estimate” is of course its political and policy implications, which National Security Adviser Steven Hadley was quick to spell out. In his view, and in that of many political leaders and pundits, if Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program, there is no great urgency to move against the mullahs.
And indeed, those “intelligence professionals” were very happy to take off their analytical caps and gowns and put on their policy wigs: “Although the officials as a rule, respecting the norms of their craft, declined to offer policy prescriptions based on their findings, the most senior official present did cite the finding that the Iranians are susceptible to international pressure and say that such pressure should “continue” as a way to “allow IAEA to have significant visibility into the program.”
This sort of blatant unprofessionalism is as common in today’s Washington as it is unworthy of a serious intel type, and I think it tells us a lot about the document itself. The “Key Findings” published yesterday address the obvious question: why would the Iranians abandon a program that had been in the works ever since the late 1980s? The IC replies: because the Iranians are rational, and they respond to international pressure. They shut down the program because the pressure was too great. They couldn’t take the risk of even more pain from the international community.
At this point, one really has to wonder why anyone takes these documents seriously. How can anyone in his (there was no female name on the document, nor was any woman from the IC present at the press briefing yesterday) right mind believe that the mullahs are rational? Has no one told the IC about the cult of the 12th Imam, on which this regime bases its domestic and foreign policies? Does not the constant chant of “Death to America” mean anything? I suppose not, at least not to the deep thinkers who wrote this policy document.
And as for Iran’s delicate sensitivity to international pressure, just a few days ago, the European ‘foreign minister’ Javier Solana was on the verge of tears when he admitted he had been totally unable to get the Iranians to come clean on their uranium enrichment program, even though he had told them that more sanctions were in the works. Yet, according to the IC, this program–neatly described in a footnote to the “Estimate” as “Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment–really doesn’t have anything to do with nuclear weapons. But if that is so, why are the Iranians so doggedly hiding it from UN inspectors?
This document will not stand up to serious criticism, but it will undoubtedly have a significant political impact, since it will be taken as confirmation of the view that we should not do anything mean to the mullahs. We should talk to them instead. And that’s just what the Estimate says:
…some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might–if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible–prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program.
Incredibly, the authors of the document claim they can prove all this: “The impact of international pressure is beyond dispute, the officials said, a “cause-and-effect” relationship backed up by an ‘evidentiary trail.’ “
But any good student who has taken Psych 101 will tell you that it’s nigh unto impossible to determine someone else’s intentions, especially when presented by “analysts” who think that Ayatollah Khamenei and President Rafsanjani are as rational as the rest of us. This is demeaning to the Iranian tyrants–for whom their faith is a matter of ultimate significance–and insulting to our leaders, who should expect serious work from the IC instead of this bit of policy advocacy masquerading as serious intelligence.
Michael,
This revelation of a “unilateral suspension” smells to me of politically motivated “pacification” of the Estimate, the sort that would lull the US electorate into a domestic issues mode vs. stay on guard mode… definitely a Democratic-favoring manipulation. Who needs a Republican hawk when the world is calming down?
Is Bush’s failure [or deliberate refusal] to clean house years ago of Clintonistas and sinistrophiles is bearing fruit today? Is this why the NY Times has suddenly noticed that the surge has proven effective? Is hopes for a Democratic leadership what is driving Iran’s newly apparent willingness to talk? Why, such calm! Such progress! Such pressing concerns at home!
I’m not buying the NY Times’ message. I’m not buying NIE data. Rather I’m noting Sun Tzu’s advice: “When you are near, make him believe you are far.” Given that, it’s clear that we’re being played for suckers by a Sulzberger-Khameni axis bent on getting the weakest President possible and the most weak-kneed foreign-policy advisers in a century.
It smells from the head on down.
ML:
Thanks, good points. One can’t ever believe that a negative has been proven…
Michael, sounds like Ken Timmerman’s “Shadow Warriors” are at it again.
It seems to me that this estimate has been used for CYA purposes, by more than one person.
In the “intelligence” world, I guess this estimate would fall into the category of being “stupid lies”.
Two years ago, the American ‘intelligence community’ reported that Iran was ignoring all international pressures and building a nuclear weapons program.
Now the same American ‘intelligence community’ reports (without any admission of prior sloppy work), that the Iranians actually had stopped their nuclear arms program four years ago, because of international pressure.
So, do the Iranians now have a nuclear weapons program? We don’t know, according to American intelligence, but be ready for Iranian nuclear bombs sometime between 2010 and 2015…if they even have them.
Just when was it that our ‘professionals’ in intelligence learned to triangulate both sides of an issue (Bill Clinton’s enduring political skill), so that they become correct no matter what actually happens? Either they were wrong in 2005, or they are wrong now…and THIS is a Republican administration?
The immediate effect of the latest NIE is to kill any possibility of invoking the Bush Doctrine of preemptive self-defense before 2010, well after Mr. Bush is out of office. This whole thing stinks of partisan politics!
Sir,
having read you I did a tabula rasa of all has been said as yet, for one minute at least.
We know that the purpose of terrorism is to terrorize; but I stop here since it is none of my intention to bother everyone with the strategic finality of terror.
We know from experience that the jerk in a plane who shows his home-made fabric belt whose pockets are filled with soap bars each fancifully wired to a broken joystick for videogame has much more chance to collect credibility if he says he is going to blow up the plane than if he says something as: “Ha-ha-ha, I got you, guys. It’s soap!”
He might just be shot dead on the spot before anyone know what was his belt filled with, actually. And when the soap bars are found on the pretty-dead bullet-riddled body lying on the carpet, then everyone feels sorry for the lamentable mistake; and the MSM quickly jumps on this nice opportunity to make a front page.
That’s why I suggest that for wants of myriads of humming centrifuges filled with uranium the Iranians might possibly have a bunch of idling sloppy soldiers playing cards in an impressively barbed-wired facility.
Why?
Because this hypothesis says that a country such as Iran doesn’t need to have an actual atomic bomb to be trusted—and I don’t pretend lecturing anyone about that.
And because if ever they don’t have anything of that sort, then this information is certainly the crown’s jewels of all secrets this country may have; which information they would never give to any U.N. atomic watchdog, of course.
And because coincidence makes that some ones in Teheran—and elsewhere—crave for American bombing on Iran.
As a conclusion to this thought and without any intention to be funny or ironic I deliver you this short extract I never forgot, which applies to our respective assumptions either:
“(….), a government official told a friend at the C.I.A., ‘I don’t agree with a thing Jim (J. J. Angleton) says, but sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night thinking, ‘what if he is right?”
David C. Martin, Wilderness of Mirrors, page 194.
Best regards,
ML:
We pay our national security officials to protect us against the worst-case scenario…but they don’t.
I suppose the following is irrelevent to their bullet points.
“We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of
intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC
assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt
to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.)”
How did they move from the 2005 NIE to this NIE.
Thank you. I’m sure most folks would have the idea that the analysts provided facts and estimates and the elected and appointed drew conclusions. But how can one understand why the latter have obviously been accepting being told what to conclude for years now? Is it the desire for cover or what?
I would very much like for the findings in this intelligence estimate to be true, for if it were true the world would be a much safer place. However, this report flies in the face of all that is known about the regime’s utter devotion to its religious beliefs. Ever since the mullahs took power, they have never evinced any willingness to bend to international pressure. The author’s only goal is to prevent a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. It is so easy to state that they can prove their findings but yet cannot release the information due to the fact that it would endanger sources and intelligence gathering techniques. They do not have to back-up anything they say. Pure fantasy!
ML:
It may turn out to be helpful in the debate over Iran, actually. Because the central point in that debate should be the fact that Iran is at war with us and has been killing Americans for nearly thirty years. I have often said that the nuclear business was a distraction from the central issue.
I had the same sceptical reaction. I also do not like the coincidence of this revelation coming so soon upon the heels of the Annapolis fiasco in which it was made clear by Condoleeza Rice that the administration had more or less decided to throw Israel to the dogs. How else can we interpret her snivelling appeasement of Arab sensibilities by claiming her sympathy for poor segregated Palestinians and forcing the Israeli delegation to use a side entrance in order not of offend the racist Saudis?
This looks like a concerted effort to minimize the Iranian nuclear threat even as the Bush administration gears up to force Israel into further humiliations and razor edge dangerous compromises.
As Optimus prime famously says: There is more to this than meets the eye…
Where are Mearsheimer and Walt when we need them to uncover nefarious plots by dark underground Lobbies?
This is of a piece with the rest of the Bush Administration climb down over the past years of Dr. Rice’s Foggy Bottom tenure. She has turned Bush back toward the Arabist “realists,” and the rest of the Bush family is following suit.
ML:
It’s also the result of a failed personnel system, I think.
After reading the “Legacy of Ashes” and hearing people talking about the mess that is CIA and US Intelligence Community, I can’t believe NIE a bit. Moreover, this is a Democratic party initiative aimed to make Bush look bad again. Check the regime media outlets, they are all happily saying that Bush administration is defeated again. Any ways, is it possible that Iran has shipped its nuke program to Syria?
ML:
What nuke program? heh.
The thinly disguised agenda aside, my reading of the NIE information was that a) we’re now sure they stopped their program in 2003 (Might have had something to do with us knocking off their next-door neighbor in three weeks, something they couldn’t do in eight years.) but b) we can’t be sure they haven’t restarted it. Given that they continue to insist on making their own fuel and keep flipping off the IAEA and the EU, I think it’s a safe bet they have restarted.
One other thing: considering the track record of our intelligence services when it comes to “slam dunks,” is there any reason anyone should take these NIEs seriously?
ML:
No, indeed there is every reason to treat it as entertainment rather than truth. I mean, even the NIC points out that there is reason to believe that at least some parts of the covert nuclear weapons program continued all along…
Many thanks for joining us here, Spy, I love your work.
… Which is why making policy judgements based on a single issue along leaves us hostage to virtue. Had we found WMD in Iraq — but only a quarter, or a fifth of what we said Saddam had — we would have still been accused of either A) hyping the “level” of threat or B)irresponsibly not being able to find all of his weapons in the aftermath.
Ditto with Iran. Regardless of the Estimate’s credibility (or lack thereof), none of this should matter when we determine what strategic course to pursue: Regime change.
Is there a way we can read this specific NIE online in its entirety?
ML:
No, the full document, some 180-plus pages, is classified. Only the Key Findings are declassified. Hang on a coupla days, perhaps someone will give it to a journalist…
Gosh, why on earth did the Iranians stop their covert nuclear weapons program in 2003?
What major event happened then that could possibly have convinced the Iranians that possessing programs to create weapons of mass destruction wasn’t a good idea?
Funny, I just can’t recall. . .
So, since they have absolutely nothing to hide anymore, Iran is going to let international nuclear inspectors view their hardened underground facilities, right?
The last article I read on the subject of proliferation in the Middle East suggested a dozen nations started “civilian” nuclear programs in response to Iran. I don’t think they are concerned about being left in the dust by Iran’s power generation capability.
“ML:
It may turn out to be helpful in the debate over Iran, actually. Because the central point in that debate should be the fact that Iran is at war with us and has been killing Americans for nearly thirty years. I have often said that the nuclear business was a distraction from the central issue.”
I would agree with you that this is the central issue. For how can one state successfully counter another state if they do not first acknowledge it as an enemy? Yet every administration since President Carter has not wanted to accept this central tenet. Thirty years ago, Iran was not even close to obtaining the weapons they seek and everyone still stuck their heads in the mud. So, I am not certain that I agree that the nuclear issue has kept policy makers from such a revelation.
And, I definitely do not consider the nuclear issue a distraction. A nuclear Iran would create a completely different world. Unlike the other powers who possess such weapons, Iran is not a rational state actor. Any estimate based upon such a belief is folly. Iran will gladly use nuclear weapons regardless of the personal consequences to them. If they have to forfeit their lives in the process, so what! They expect to get one heck of a party thrown in their honor.
Sounds like the Joe Wilson boondoggle all over again!
Once again, the “Intelligence Community” has proven that they are not intelligent at all, and the term is an oxymoronic one. What’s more, they have now become pawns for our own Iran appeasers. You know, the usual suspects, the border-line pro-Islamist Democrats (Barrack Hussein Obama with his grand sleeping-with-the-enemy fantasies when he becomes President, Kerry who has a soft spot in his heart for the Euro-mullah Khatami/“Reformists” in Iran; etc. Furthermore, the “Intelligence Community” has now also become pawns for the Administration’s own Iran-Appeasers and “Grand Bargain” advocates (the likes of the grand foreign policy screw-upper Condi et al., Robert Gates the sentimentally reluctant Defense Minister, Admiral Fallon who actually promotes doing nothing militarily against Iran, etc.)
In the style of Hillary, it should be said that it is indeed a vast “Intelligence Community/Iran Appeasers” conspiracy.
But it is not as important that the NIE report on Iran is a total farce. It is.
What is more important is that it already has damaged further an already weak Iran policy that was on the verge of collapse anyway. And that’s no matter how the President tries to spin it the other way in his news conferences. It shows again this administration’s failed Iran policy. That’s what happens when one lets go of the helm to Ms. Condi Rice et al.
And so Tehran wins another round again.
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
Here is how Haaretz put it, which blends in with what I asserted above. i.e, the damage is done:
“It does not really matter. However successful or flawed this report may be, there is a new, dramatic reality, in all aspects of the struggle against the Iranian bomb: The military option, American or Israeli, is off the table, indefinitely.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/930783.html
ML:
There never has been a military option. Only fiction writers believed that…
It has been apparent over the past few months that Condi Rice and her appeasing cohorts at the State Dept. are trying to find a way to placate the mullahs. This intel report shows that she has succeeded. From now on it’s downhill for this administration on the Iran strategy. Is this the beginning of the fall of the US power?
The fate of the world may now rest on how the Israelis counter the mullahs.
Yeah, I’ll be waiting on that leak. While this is (yet again) something Democrats and the State Department will be able to point to, I agree that this *might* lead to a better situation.
Let’s just say it is true (even though we know we cannot operate on that assumption, even if the IC wants us to):
– This means Iran pulled a Libya-like move during the same year and for the same reasons. If it hurts our intel. credibility (what credibility?) at least it gives us some political capital.
This can lead to a greater debate about the nature of our intel. and how it should be constructed.
– It means Iran is further away from what we thought it was closer to, thus meaning we are futher away from doing what none of us want to do — airstrikes. Ergo, if the Bush admin. is intent on still following a strategy that says Iran is warring against us, maybe, finally, the “hawks” inside the admin. will win the internal debate about internal regime change.
I thought Bush would take out their nuke-sites before leaving office. Now I don’t think he will.
So what to do? The alternative is the one option we haven’t discussed.
What could this report have to do with the Iranian general’s “defection” a few months ago? Was he sent?
ML:
I dunno; the timing seems wrong to me, since General Asgari disappeared from Istanbul in February. But Bill Gertz mentioned his name in his story in today’s Wash Times.
So, it took us four years to determine that Iran stopped their nuclear weapons program in 2003. Based on that speed of detection, it won’t be until 2010 that we determine that Iran re-started their program last year (2006).
As one commenter at Digg said:
I remember when North Korea halted its nuclear war program in 1994:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/02/07/nkorea.timeline.nuclear/
I also remember it was in response to President Clinton preparing to attack it:
http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/nk-fact-sheet.cfm
From this I have two observations:
1. Democrats turn a blind eye to Democratic aggression while Republicans support Republican wars (big surprise there)
2. Regardless of halting development in ’94 North Korea has nuclear weapons.
Like anyone who wants peace, in our time or any other, I would love to believe this report.
Back to reality…. the Intel community has taken it on the chin for a few years now as their ineptitude has been uncovered time & again on numerous issues.
The Intel community are unhappy with the Bush Admin. because he either counted on one of their reports, down to the crossed T & dotted i, or he completely ignored one of their reports because he had other info to the contrary he believed.
Add to this CIA types sending relatives to check out activities of nut job regimes, only to have such reports (or NYT versions more accurately), published later as political attack ads rather than op-eds, the Admin. may have justifiable reason to suspect the Intel community may be “fudging” their reports to match the political persuasion they all seem to be in love with!
Based on previous errors, lack of adequate data, failures to respond when called upon, vicious in-fighting in the community, and especially the politically partisan hack jobs we have all witnessed…
methinks we cannot trust this NIE report as factual, accurate, complete, or even truthful.
Knowing the Intel community has political plants inside who oppose Bush Admin. policies, and who have fed America & its elected President false, fake, & erroneous info over the years, and hearing the catcalling of the usual suspects (NYT, DailyKos, et al), unless & until someone I really trust can absolutely verify there is no program, it was stopped, it continues to not function, and/or it is not functioning covertly, I think the Reagan alternative is our best policy!
“Trust, but verify!”
Now all I need is for someone I trust to gain access to the relevant data or be on the ground in Iran, and then I will stop believing the Iranian regime is not planning on nuclear Armageddon!
One should never underestimate the factor of white guilt regarding so much of this nonsense. The dark skinned Iranian mullahs are supposedly victims of Western imperialism. They are just defending themselves from our aggression. If we were just a little bit nicer—Iran’s leadership would join Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the singing of Kumbaya.
The CIA has consistently opposed the US taking action in the Middle East. They seem to made of the same flimsy stuff as the State Department under Powell and Rice which is really, really, bad news.
There is absolutely no reason why Iran would suspend their nuclear weapons program. Nothing substantial has been done to deter them while Russia and China (and North Korea) continue to support them. Our CIA, like our State Department, is in thrall to the Arabists.This bunch were useless before 911, deficient since 911, and truly ridiculous now.
ML:
This assessment was written by three former State Dept officials, none of them a career intelligence officer.
The President’s statement today caps it. He has all too easily accepted this report’s conclusions as accurate. He will not strike Iran’s nuclear facilities and this report gives him the cover he needs for his decision. That is unless of course this is all part of a master-full ruse by a brilliant President to lull the mullahs into a sense of complacency while he prepares to strike. I’m thinking about something freezing over first.
Unless there is a change of leadership in Israel, there will be no Israeli strike any time in the near future either.
Be Careful friends: When NIE’s said what we wanted to hear–Saddam’s WMD, Iran’s Nuclear Programme–we ran to embrace them while the NYT and cohorts held their noses.
Now the shoe’s on the other foot and we’re the ones smelling rats.
Let’s devise a better strategy–let’s welcome this new “estimate”–and start looking at the people who wrote it and their agendas–and sooner or later, without a doubt, we will all find out the TRUTH!
OK, Michael.
I told our editors, shortly after you reported the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that you were wrong.
That was, incidentally, a rather busy day for me, since you chose to erroneously report the ayatollah’s death on the day of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Second Inaugural.
You think you know more than the combined US intelligence community because … ?
ML:
I hope your editors have warned you about the importance of logic. “You think you know more…” is not true and doesn’t follow from what I wrote. I took pains to say that I did not know the evidence, and that it is possible that there is some really good information that would justify this. But the document itself doesn’t stand up to serious analysis. Have you read it? Are you impressed by it?
And who are your editors, exactly?
As for my false report on Khamenei, I’m sorry it ruined your afternoon. It didn’t do much for mine, either, as you can imagine.
shorter Ledeen:
Iran should be punished when we think they’re developing nuclear weapons, and Iran should be punished when we know with some confidence that they aren’t. Apparently, Iran should always be punished. You can imagine that they would say the same thing if Iran gave up the fuel cycle all together: “They might start up a program in the future, so they’re still a threat, if only in my mind.”
ML:
oh please. go read “The Iranian Time Bomb,” there is very little about nukes, it’s all about the Iranian war against us for the past three decades or so. That’s the main issue.
Much as I hate leaks out of the intelligence community, someone should leak the names of these three rat bags.
If it wasn’t for ML’s hilighting of the political statements in the NIE, I was leaning towards the view that the authors were being advised by a number of highly placed Islamic spies. You know, like Ana Montes.
ML:
Was she a Shi’ite? heh.
Nice work Michael. Looks like the Hezbollah’s mole in the CIA was given a furlough to write this report. The only way we’re going to protect our way of life and at the same time liberate Iranians is by pulling our head out of the sand and applying all means necessary to stop the mullahs now. It’ll send a good message to the mysogyfascist regime in Saudi Arabia too, that their days of whipping gang-raped women are coming to an end. Sorry guys, but the next time you whip a woman, there’s a Predator with a Hellfire with your names on it, courtesy of President Giuliani…
Michael.
Really now.
My editors are your editors, sport.
As you know.
You were dead wrong in your report of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
ML:
Oh, you mean Roger.
Yes I was wrong–”dead wrong” is actually better–about Khamenei, as I have written.
How did you enjoy the Ravens-Pats game last night?
I have, by the way, deleted some angry comments aimed at you, and I would appreciate it if you kept your comments relevant to the subject. Disagreements are great, criticism is wonderful, but personal attacks are not welcome here.
ML:
Was she a Shi’ite? heh.
Sorry:
I should have said like Anna Montez’s spying for Cuba.
ML:
Yes, obviously. I was only kidding, sorry if you thought otherwise.
President Bush said something even more disturbing than his utterly failed Condi-led Iran policy today in his news conference:
He said something to the effect that the time before Ahamdinejad, (meaning at the time when the Europeans’ favorite mullah Khatami’s was still President), “was a HOPEFUL era (time?)”
Absolutely amazing! I could not believe my ears. It seems that our once clear-minded President (on Iran) has now lost his way more than we thought. He has now emerged on the side of the EU’s Iran policy, which is namely, no regime change, but only bringing back Khatami, Rafsanjani, and the rest of the European mullahs back into power, and call it good as the “HOEPFUL” times will be here again afterwards!
What a cop-out! And a major decline in this Presidency, a total free fall of our failed foreign policy towards Iran. Thanks to Condi and the rest of the Iran-softies, and Iran-appeasers surrounding the President.
These defeatist, and desperate statements by us will have major repercussions for our interest in the region, as well as for Iranian secular democracy movement. We will feel the ripple effects of Condi’s misguided Iran policy across the Islamist-Fascist world long after “W” is out of the office.
Then, the only question that will be left for a new US president on Iran will be: Shall we serve the “Grand Bargain” on a gold or silver platter to the mullahs?
What a shame and a disaster this administration has made out of our Iran policy.
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
Addendum:
Also, in his statement referring to Khatami’s reign as president of the regime in Iran as “a HOPEFUL time”, President Bush must have forgotten that it was during Khatami’s presidency, according to the NIE itself, that Iran’s nuclear weapon program started (and then stopped in 2003).
Gives a whole new meaning to the word “HOPEFUL”, doesn’t it?
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
As always my friend, good work! I ignored the NIE as soon as it came out. It is a politically motivated screed from top to bottom. They would have to be in the enrichment facilities to know anything. As soon as they present me with SWU calculations, I will listen. Until then, I ignore them. They know nothing.
I think Annapolis is about luring Syria away from the Iran-etc. axis, not about Palestinian/Israeli comity. The most significant recent event is the Israeli strike against the Syrian facility; conditions are less auspicious than they have been for years in present Israel. It is my opinion that this NIE serves as political cover for a Democratic opposition to a strike that could lead to regional war. The NIE provided that primary grounds for war against Iraq – this is therefore a pre-emptive measure. It could be true – undoubtedly. But the major blind spot of our CIA seems to be its inability to accurately assess with appropriate skepticism the intent and capability of an enemy within the context of its native cultural and political character. Moreover, the hand of Russia, among other powers, is always obscured.
In my opinion this NIE is intended to politically hamstring the anti-Iran plan which an entente at Annapolis was intended to support.
Just my guess.
Let’s see: Iran suspended work on nuclear warheads in 2003 because they were unnerved after America overthrew radical anti-U.S. regimes in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq. I can buy that.
Iran continued to develop uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles, because they could get away with arguing to the UN and EU that they weren’t connected to any nuclear weapons program. I can buy that.
After Iran perceived that America was bogged down in Iraq, and was going wobbly in the war against radical Islam in general, they became confident enough to train and fund Shiite militias in Iraq and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, and provide advanced roadside bombs to both – all with the purpose of killing Americans (among others). They also have risked American ire with inflamatory anti-Semitic language, threats, and by their support of Hamas and Hezbollah killing Israelis – among others. I certainly buy that.
And yet we are believe the nuclear warhead development is still on hold? I don’t buy that.
And apparently the IC has some trouble buying that, given that while they are highly confident that Iran suspended development in 2003, they are only moderately confident that such development is still on hold today.
And yet the news headlines pronounce that Iran has discontinued its nuclear weapons program, so not to worry. Heck! No, double heck!
Being a right wing blog, the comments here are to be expected, but they also are deeply misinformed and does expose the ignoranse of internal Iranian affairs.
I work everyday with an Iranian, and the picture painted by her of the country is so far removed from he one you all imagine it’s untrue.
And believe me she is no propagandist for either Religion or Ahmadinejad.
Did you know half the population of Iran is under 21, thats 35 million teenagers and young kids all wanting to consume Coke and Pizza, their religion being Shia Mulsims is far from the crazed fundamentalism portrayed by the Media. These kids are more interested in Nose Jobs and celebrity gossip than preaching the Koran and 5 daily prayers.
Also did you know Islam was actually imposed on Iran 900 years ago, previously they were predominately Sufi. This imposition is still felt keenly amongst the population.
Do you know how much power Ahmadinejad really wields in Iran.
It’s not much.
He is a spokesman a figure head for the Country, and an increasingly unpopular one at that. He was, and I know this will be a shock to some of you, but he was voted in democratically to replace the previous Prime Minister who had grown increasingly unpopular.
Ahmadinejad is also growing more unpopular and in all liklely hood will lose his next election, look at Chavez in Venezuela, a man that has also over reached.
The power is with the Mullahs, yes they talk tough and encourage the “death to america” chants once in a while but this is just pandering to their hardcore right wing. Much the same as Bush does with his “Born Again” thing. Of course they encourage this talk but would they carry it out ? of course not.
They are a potentially rich country they hold vast reserves of Oil and Gas. Ask your self why would they attack anyone particularly America with Nuclear weapons when it would invite the destruction of their Country.
Ahmadinejad panders to his base with his rhetoric but his country and those in charge of the program have enough sense to understand the implications of developing or deploying a Bomb.
This NIE estimate is probably accurate but I would imagine that for some such as Bush and Cheney only a guided tour around the entire Iranian decommissioned weapons program would convince them, and some of you that they have no intention of making a bomb.
Remember back during the cold war Cheney was part of “Team B” a group of strategist who convinced many in the administration that Russia had developed a super stealth non detectable Nuclear submarine.
When no evidence of the program or the subs could be found “Team B” mearly said that the Russians must have hidden it really really well and that “no evidence does not mean no program”
Of course after the cold war ended it turned out no program existed, as Russia was deeply in debt and could barely afford to feed its people let alone build new Subs
(incidentally it was this poverty that eventually caused the collapse of the cold war, there was only so long people could go hungry and a people stay convinced of the “benefits” of communism)
This time though 16 agencies and remember this was a team of agencies have come to a collective conclusion there is no weapon program. We don’t know their sources but for all we know they may have been high level defectors, even outright invited visits to the questioned sites.
Think of it this way, no one saw 9-11 coming and that killed 3,300 people and caused immense embarrassment to all the spy agencies.
Right now 16 Agencies have come out against Iran having a Nuclear program, don’t you think if they even had a shadow of doubt over impending Nuclear Armageddon it would be in their own, let alone the countries interests to make this known.
Don’t believe everything you see on Fox and please find out about the real Iran, it’s not such a scary place. And when you get up close you would all be surprised to see the similarities from their Politics to the Coke they drink and the Pizza they eat.
Thanks for your time people
ML:
Thanks for taking the time. Much of what you say about Iran is in “The Iranian Time Bomb,” which you might enjoy.
Note that Sufis are Muslims, so your description of Islam displacing Sufi faith is historically wrong, although the conflict between the two versions of islam–Sufi and Shi’ite–is certainly real.
Your friend has a rose-tinted view of Iran, with which many, indeed probably most Iranians would disagree. These young people don’t want to be arrested for wearing clothes that expose too much hair or too much ankle; they don’t want to be beaten for holding hands in public. Yet they are, routinely.
You should reread the NIE’s Key Judgments more carefully, and you’ll see that many elements of the Intelligence Community don’t agree with the central claim that we know the entire nuclear weapons program has been suspended since 2003.
Anyway, I’m grateful for your time and I’m sure there will be many responses.
Levin & Rockefeller are strangely silent today!
Dick Armey, former House Leader, is now calling for the legitimization of the MEK opposition group against the Iranian regime. http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/EDITORIAL/112040004
MEK has already gained a lot of momentum and support in Europe towards their goal of being legitimized as a viable opposition to the regime in Tehran.
Their popular support within Iran amongst Iranians seems to be negative to neutral, at best. But given a choice, the Iranians may again grow to like MEK, especially if MEK starts making some real and physical waves (covert operations with selected targets inside Iran and the Theocratic leadership) against the regime. (In other words, why should all the explosions and assassinations be happening only in Iraq against the Iraqi government?)
Could we be getting ready to be going towards what Dick Armey and a lot of European political elite are now concurring on? Perhaps yes, perhaps no. But at least Armey has a direction and logic to his strategy, which is diagonally opposed to the kind of rudderless Iran policy by Condi and cohorts.
Makes one wish that a decisive, focused, and clear-minded official like Dick Armey was actually in charge of our Iran policy. Oh well.
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
ML:
I don’t believe that MEK has any meaningful following in Iran. Can’t imagine this.
Hi
Yeah the beatings of people holding ands and exposing too much hair do go on. My friend having returned from Skiing in Iran’s amazing mountains said that dissent towards this behavior, or rather silent dissent towards this crack down is increasing. With so many young people these policies can only go on so long.
I am imagine the book you refer to goes into detail about the demographics and, depending on the leaning of the writer, and I am guessing here says one of two things. A: The young people are all crazed Islamists or B: Gonna be a HUGE group of very eager CONSPICUOUS consumers.
If I entertained conspiracy theory’s about why America would want regime change I would say forget about the Oil, you would be getting American corporations into a massive DREAM demographic !!!. Seriously imagine taking away the Mullahs and really letting an Oil Rich and therefore RICH country off the leash, they would spend like crazy !!.
My friend is Iranian and as I say travels there extensively, nver mind trying to bomb the place or worrying about the bomb, wait for the next election Ahmadinejad will go, he cannot stay on indefinitely, Iranians remember are Persian, not Arabs (an important distinction as important as the difference between Canadians and Americans) Persian’s pride themselves on their democracy and the ability to vote for their Prime Minister.
Please don’t worry about Iran, The NIE has done everyone a massive favour and in years to come when peacefully and quietly the young kids take over America will eventually invade Via the back door with Pizza Hut and Burger King, don’t force it, it will come.
Right now you should worry about Pakistan, They have the Bomb and little democracy, and a currently very unstable internal political situation. In some respects Iran has become a destraction from the very Real threat posed by the terrible internal situation in Pakistan.
Oh and don’t forget, the Pakistani ISS actively supported the Taliban. Iran on the other hand were quietly instrumental in their demise.
ML:
It’s my book. If you are interested in learning something, read it. Most grateful for your observation that Iranians are Persians; actually only about half of them are Persians. That’s in the book as well. If all you want to do is guess about its contents, by all means base your foreign policy analyses on anecdotes from a friend.
When it comes to the CIA, “intelligence” has lost its meaning.
As Charles Krauthammer pointed out, there are three things necessary to a nuclear attack: 1. highly refined fissile material; 2. a means of making it explode; 3. a delivery system
The first and third are hard, and Iran is still working on them. The second, design of a bomb has already been done for them by A. Q. Khan. All that remains is machining the parts, which is relatively easy.
It’s like building an arch. You build the sides and then you insert the keystone, which is simple once you’ve built the scaffolding and assembled the rest.
This “estimate” is not intelligence, it’s stupidity. The people we’ve hired to keep us safe are working against doing so. The CIA should be abolished or perhaps donated to the U.N. and relocated to Belgium.
what makes anyone of any intelligence think iran has stopped anything. their goal is to destroy us and they will continue working to do so. not one thing they say can be believed. islam breeds lies and violence both of which are condoned by moon god allah and his good friend the black stone( a worn out phallic symbol).
ML: brilliant and well-thought-out. How about this conclusion of mine? We need only wait until the 2nd sentence of the NIE to see the idiocy of the writer(s). They’re moderately confident, that at a minimum, Teheran could quickly start up the nuclear weapon program??? At a minimum? That means they don’t have a freaking CLUE whether they could start it up quickly or perhaps HAVE ALREADY started it up! The MSM may love this double-speak, but any thinking American should be ashamed that our “deep” thinkers writing an NIE would spew out such drivel! ML is absolutely correct that the timing is politically motivated by the decision-makers at the highest levels who want to embarrass Bush. In fact, however, they’re only making themselves look like fools to come out with such drivel.
ML:
I have not been among those who believed that this administration was going to take drastic action against Iran, as you know, and so this document isn’t going to change policy (although already some of the pundits are claiming that is has or will).
I think in time we’ll see that putting the nuclear question at the center of the Iran policy debate was wrong. The central issue is Iran’s war against us, now headed towards its 29th anniversary. That’s one of the central theses of “The Iranian Time Bomb,” the other being the failure of all American presidents since the 1979 revolution to take appropriate action against the mullahs.
I do hope that when we see that, it will not be because even more Americans, Iraqis, Afghans and Iranians have been murdered.
It is a shame that, no matter how you slice it, the requirements of national security will always in some way limit a democracy’s ability to exercise its judgment on such definitive questions as the geostrategic posture and commitments its citizens desire its government to adopt. I read a comment at FrontPageMagazine by John Loftus, who wrote something to the effect that it’s no wonder so many Americans don’t understand the world they live in – so much necessary information is classified. That sounds right to me.
What is less acceptable is the media’s total unwillingness or inability, whether for ideological or financial reasons, to provide the American people with a thorough lesson in the history of the region. The media as it presently exists is the greatest pedagogical tool ever created, and yet – nothing. Just these idiotic soundbite things, even on the History Channel. People have no idea what they’re voting for with respect to foreign policy, which almost always has far more to do with the target country or countries than it does with the USA’s ability to “control” them. The most well-known example is the fact that 99% of the Iraq War deaths have been caused by Iraqis or other Arabs – and yet they are treated as passive non-agents of the murder they commit. It is disgusting. Instead the Marxist “forces” arguments prevail as the de facto prevailing default sensibility, and voila – suddenly it’s our fault.
To the person above who referred to the opinions of her/his Persian friend, the critical question is the question of Time. The stories you tell about the attitude of the people, as well as the information Mr. Ledeen has provided us routinely, indeed paint a picture of a Revolutionary Totalitarian Theocracy grafted on an indifferent or hostile populace ready to ditch them at a moment’s notice. Well, that’s fine; it sounds right, particularly from pictures I’ve seen of gaudily attired dandies and really unbelievably pretty Iranian girls in hijab. Plus the mullahs don’t seem to be able to do a good enough job at controlling the influx of Western technology, so it is unlikely a generation so exposed to this paradox of Islamic government in a Western world will long tolerate such an overlord.
And yet, and yet… They are still there. They have erected their centirfuge cascade. They are pursuing a nuclear weapon (why wouldn’t they? I would). And so we race against time. Indeed, one might be more prudent to presume that a messianic regime which believes its days are numbered might be more inclined to make and use the Bomb rather than simply build it, demonstrate the capability, then settle back into a slow comfortable conservatism, safe behind its deterrent. It is an ominous situation – and it should be remembered that Iran having acquired a bomb will not, in view of the dynamics involved, be permitted to simply sit behind that deterrent.
Make no mistke – any comparisons with North Korea are completely inappropriate here. They are not remotely the same.
ML:
thanks for this terrific post, which everyone should read. let me make one point, which you’d only know if you’d been in government and read classified documents. with all the respect i have for john loftus–and it’s considerable–i think he’s wrong to say that normal people can’t really understand the world because so much of it is classified. i really can’t think of a single case in which my basic understanding of ‘how the world works’ was transformed by secret information. i got more detail, my evaluation of one person or another was certainly changed, but the basic facts about the world? no. hell no.
The NIE estimate, while definitly reasuring, does not allow for the fact that Iran is still in violation of IAEA protocols and is procuring decent sized medium range ballistic missiles. I wouldn’t rule them out as a potential proliferant threat just yet. The NIE can be wrong.
As for regime change in Iran, you assume that just because the Ayatollah is a shi’a muslim means that Iran’s foreign policy will follow Shi’a armaggadon prophecies? The first rule of international politics is that all states (by that I mean any sovereign territory with a government and population) is rational, even the rogue ones. Iran behaves rationaly, even if its rhetoric is somewhat radical.
Regime change in Iran is contrary to our interests, while Iran has armed several shi’a militias in Iran, the Ayatollah has issued fatwas (islamic legal rulings for those of you who don’t understand islam) asking shi’ites not to resist US forces. In fact, the US and Iran have held bilateral (though unofficial) talks concerning the role Iran will play in Iraq. Iran offered safe passage to downed US airmen in the war in afghanistan, and closed its borders to al-qaeda and taliban insurgents attempting to use it as a safe haven. (Iran and the Taliban never got along in the first place. In short, keeping Iran around is more important than botching another attempt at regime change. (See CRS Report Entitled “Iran: US Policy Concerns and Responses”)
Even if Iran had gotten nuclear weapons, the most you would see is the Qods Force (essentially the Iranian Green Berets, considered terrorists by the US and UN) giving more AK’s and RPGs to Hezbollah. Iran would never give up atomic weapons to terrorists. It has never coughed up a chemical or biological warhead (both of which it has plenty of) which are less easily traced and equally effective. In short, Iran is a rational state that can be (and is being) deterred by American and Israeli strateigic might.
It is more important to normalize relations with Iran (we both have bloody histories with each other I know, but that means both of us are at fault) and use the added influence we gain with the shi’a to encourage development and poverty relief in the middle east. Saudi Arabia won’t like that, but our support for Saudi arabia is one of the reasons bin Laden hates us in the first place…..
ML:
Since when was there a rule that all states are rational actors? That’s a (misguided, in my view) theory of one school of contemporary political science, no more than that. I don’t see how anybody who has studied, say, Nazi Germany or Stalinist Soviet Union can believe it, but obviously some do. But it sure isn’t a “rule”.
Dear sir:
the IC works to advance an American policy and its job is to justify a certain course of action. The message to Iran was clear: We intend no harm.
This message is not Republican, nor Democratic, it is an American message based on an American policy. DOS, DOD, IC and the rest are just part of one giant bureacracy working in tandem to advance the American policy.
What was clear from the early eighties is that we have made up our mind that Iran should get along with us, otherwise, we will get along with Iran.
The war on Iraq was a clear indication that we intend to extend not just an olive branch to Iran but also a geopolitical credit line. We intentionally fixed the evidence on Iraq as we are doing on Iran to justify a policy.
Make no mistake about it: the plan has not changed and we have not weakened. This is what we always wanted: a strong Mulla-Iran with hegemonic aspirations against its neighbors, the Arabs.
Mullah-Iran is our beloved Frankenstein. We have worked hard and put up with a lot of terrorism from Iran, but that was part of growing up. At the end we decided that the time has come for Frankenstein to devour a big juicy chunk of “geopolitical meat” called Iraq. We knew that Frankenstein has been dreaming for a long time for such a bride or prize. What we are doing now is gleefully watching Iran grows in stature at the expense of its neighbors. This is very important because without our help, Messianic Shia Iran cannot stand up to the overwhelming Sunni presence in the region.
Now that The gates were flung opened by the USA for Iran to roar eastward, we will tell Iran: dear friends, why do you need nukes when have done for you what you have been dreaming of doing for 30 years? You always wanted Iraq. We handed Iraq to you on a silver plate; you were afraid of the Taliban. We defeated them for you. What other regional adversary do you fear? Turkey? We are taking care of that too. How about Pakistan? We are supporting Bhutto, a shia, to come to power. You really do not need Nukes.
The timing of the NIE report was so bad. Couldn’t they have waited for December 7… We never learn from history just repeating the same mistakes all over again (and again). What is behind the sudden change claming Iran is receptive to pressure from the international community and guided by a cost-benefit approach. now ?! When A-jad is on the loose ? It doesn’t take the intellect of an intel analyst to grasp that Tehran was far more succeptive to US pressure after OIF, and much less, 4 years (and thousands of dead GIs) later.
The analysis was also based to much on western like political thinking and less on religious based policy and decisionmaking.
“(by that I mean any sovereign territory with a government and population) is rational, even the rogue ones. Iran behaves rationaly, even if its rhetoric is somewhat radical.”
Rational? The Iranians have been attacking US interests and killing US citizens since 1979.
Michael Ledeen: I am sending this to you and John Podhoretz since you were not fooled by the N.I.E. “intelligence scam.” And evidently Bush is not fooled by it, to the dismay of the Fifth Column media that sees Bush—not Iran—as the greatest danger to world peace. I am pretty sure who orchestrated this unanimity of opinion for all fifteen entities of the I.C. (Intelligence Community).
First, we must consider the source. In the past Bush was being constantly undermined by leaks out of the CIA that wound up on the front page of the N.Y. Times and other outlets only too happy to see Bush out of office as soon as possible. Democrats are now crying that Bush has been wrong twice, not only about Iran, but about Sadaam having WMDs. However, I reported on the soldier who was part of a team that blocked the Euphrates river in order to find out what was in the cement bunker under the river. And there they found WMDs! Moreover, Bush’s response to Democrats who proclaimed he lied was that they had seen the same intelligence he had, but we found out that they had refused to view it, just as they had refused to see the evidence of Clinton’s crimes on display during the Clinton impeachment hearings.
In April of 2006 Mary McCarthy of the CIA was fired after she “acknowledged having unauthorized discussions with reporters in which the officer knowingly and willfully shared classified intelligence, including operational information.” One of the reporters who was routinely given leaks from the CIA was Dana Priest of the Washington Post, who was rewarded by the Fifth column media with a Pulitzer prize.
So Bush sent a new sheriff into Dodge City to clean house. But Porter Goss faced an open rebellion, most notably from Stephen Kappes, and had to resign. Negroponte then promoted Kappes! Not only did Negroponte and the anti-Bush forces in the CIA win the war against those who wanted to clean up the CIA, but he also left behind hundreds of clones to perpetuate his agenda, according to Frank Gaffney. Moreover, as I wrote in my newsletter of 10/1/06
We all know the term “October surprise” as the attempt to influence a November Presidential election. Now Negroponte’s CIA has sprung a surprise that more than likely will swing the election in favor of Democrats regaining the House of Representatives, and they have sworn to impeach Bush. The surprise is the Defense Intelligence Estimate, which is in every sense of the way Negroponte’s baby. Full of Democratic talking points that we are “less safe,” for invading Iraq, the biggest but expected surprise was that this “classified” document appeared on the front page of
surprise that more than likely will swing the election in favor of Democrats regaining the House of Representatives, and they have sworn to impeach Bush. The surprise is the Defense Intelligence Estimate, which is in every sense of the way Negroponte’s baby. Full of Democratic talking points that we are “less safe,” for invading Iraq, the biggest but expected surprise was that this “classified” document appeared on the front page of the Washington Post, thereby giving Democrats all the ammo they need to carry the October election.
With the intelligence services now secure and echoing Negroponte’s party line (identical to Russia and China’s) that the danger of Iran and Syria acquiring nuclear weapons lay in the far distant future, Negroponte resigned to implement his agenda at State, which under Bush’s direction had declared that there would be no negotiations with terrorist nations such as Iran and Syria unless they stopped exporting terrorism to other states such as Lebanon, Israel and Iraq. Here it should be noted that Syria and Iran have mutual defense pacts with China and Russia under the Singapore Cooperation Organization( SCO), and that the weapons defending these countries—particularly the uranium refining facility¾were supplied by China and Russia.
Therefore, upon Negroponte’s arrival at State in 2007 as #2 to Rice, U.S. policy made a U-turn to diplomacy at all costs. But still Bush persisted that “all options were on the table,” including bombing the uranium facility. State also arranged for the Annapolis negotiations, but somehow forgot to tell Israel that they were committed to relinquishing the Golan Heights at the next meeting in Moscow.
So the “unanimous” NIE was created to take bombing Iran off the table, throw Israel to the wolves, and accept the diplomacy of State, which empowers the terrorists and
emboldens the Chinese and Russians, all without their having to fire a shot.
What makes Negroponte more suspect is that the NIE is chaired by the DNI (Director of National Intelligence). Ed Lasky of the American Thinker blog writes on12/5/07, “The Wall Street Journal editorial that ran this morning echoes and expands upon suspicions first articulated by the New York Sun that the NIE was cooked up by bureaucrats eager to embarrass George Bush and transform U.S. policy towards Iran. . . .
“A dynamic is at work that will serve Iranian interests by throwing a wrench in plans to expand sanctions against it for its nuclear program; it also will serve to veto any plans to attack its nuclear facilities.
“The three main authors of this report are former State Department officials with previous reputations that should lead one to doubt their conclusions. All three are ex-bureaucrats who, as is generally true of State Department types, favor endless rounds of negotiation and ‘diplomacy’ and oppose confrontation. These three officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, have ‘reputations as hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials.’. . .
“The third main author comes in for particular criticism in the Wall Street Journal editorial. Kenneth Brill served as the US Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (the IAEA). This is an agency that has served to enable Iranian’s quest for nuclear weapons. The head of the IAEA, Mohammed ElBaradei, has even been called a friend by the Iranian regime. As he should be, for he has been an enabler of its nuclear weapons program and has stiff-armed European Union diplomats who have worked to restrain Iran.
“Elbaredei and the IAEA have over-reached and now seek to control diplomatic negotiations with Iran — a function that is beyond its mandate. Brill was apparently unwilling to stop this mission creep and put an end to Elbaradei’s efforts to help Iran. Or, as the Wall Street Journal hints, maybe he was just incompetent. This hint comes from former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton’s (who headed counter-proliferation efforts in the State Department previous to his UN posting) new book:
For a flavor of their political outlook, former Bush Administration antiproliferation official John Bolton recalls in his recent memoir that then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage “described Brill’s efforts in Vienna, or lack thereof, as ‘bull — .’” Mr. Brill was “retired” from the State Department by Colin Powell before being rehired, over considerable internal and public protest, as head of the National Counter-Proliferation Center by then-National Intelligence Director John Negroponte.
Recent reports, by Kenneth Timmerman and others, indicate that a single human source may be responsible for the conclusions of the NIE. This may be a former aide to the Iranian defense minister and a retired general with long service in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (recently categorized as a terrorist entity) who disappeared in Europe earlier in the year. Or it may be that given the motivation and background of the three State officials who wrote the NIE report, they may have solicited the Revolutionary Guards for disinformation to swing American public opinion against attacking Iraq! Personally I would have no doubt that such a ploy would have been orchestrated by Negroponte.
Kodus to Dan for his post about Iranian society. Dan has it down exactly.
I know Iran, and Aviduser’s posts above about Iranian youth being politically neutered and indifferent, after fashion, plastic surgeries, sex, parties, etc is certainly true.
But Aviduser should have stopped at that, since his/her political conculsions are at best simplistic, and unfortuantely only based on Iranian pop culture, not serious policy.
Furthermore, on MEK issue, it does not really matter whether MEK has a popular base in Iran. They can still be unleashed on the Theocray of Tyranny in Iran in a meaningful way.
If the current US administration seems to be either unwilling, incapable, or just too timid to carry out covert operations against regime leaders and their interests inside Iran; MEK is ready, able, and willing to do all that and more. Plus they are Iranians.
As I said, why should all the explosions and assassinations occur only in Iraq by Iranians Ghods Force?
So, I agree with Dick Armey that MEK should be invited into the fold, officially this time.
Although clear-minded Iran policy is asking for too much from this White House right now.
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
If someone says they want to kill me, and they are franticly looking for a gun, should I be relieved or anxious when they stop looking?
Reports tend toward the political and why those with access to classified documents leak because all are too important to be mere functionaries; we are all presidents now.
Like an exotic dancer the truth is obscured by a pasty put there for the benefit of those that would object to the truth and so it is the pasty that is the story in those quarters. But we have some, like Mr. Ledeen, that will report on the sin thinly disguised by the pasty.
It is rather disturbing being an Iranian-American and lover of democracy at this time. When the majority of the American public (70%) is ignorant to what the government of Iran is all about . With ignorance they are easily manipulated, with reports such as these. The headlines read “President remains determined to mislead” and the public swallows it. They equate Iran with Iraq like its a kindergarden math problem. If the public was not ignorant they would realize that it is not Bush that is “building up” the war with Iran, but it is Iran that since its inception, has declared war on America. Perhaps it is because I have an insider’s perspective, that I can see the seriousness of this threat. I can see that this regime will not stop its efforts until our liberal world is destroyed! Hopefully they shall fail, and we shall prevail.
ML:
Thanks. Trust me, being a native doesn’t make it any easier.
Kodus to Sohrab for his right post.
The real coming danger in Iran is the return of Rafsanjani and/or Khatami to power, come spring 2008 majlis elections, or thereafter.
With such European mullahs–so-called “Reformists”– back in power, the regime change option will be utterly lost for foreseeable future. But yet, that strategy is exactly what a lot of European political elite tied to Khatami and Rafsanjani; as well as their American co-conspirators inside US government, are working on right now.
If the “Reformists” and their backers are successful in conducting a “coup” and take over, it will be a worse situation than Ahmadinejad, since it will buy the Islamist-Fascists regime in Tehran another 29 years at the helm.
But, of course, you will see a smiling Euro-mullah Khatami or oil Mafia Rafsanjani’s “shark” face, instead of the true face of the regime as reflected in Ahmadinejad’s right now.
Iran Blog at: http://mor2com.blogspot.com/
Check this out: The foreign minister of the Iranian regime quoted as saying in a town hall meeting that 70% of the recent NIE report about Iran’s nuclear activities seems to be correct. So I am curious to know the remaining 30% that is not correct.
Tehran University erupts
http://thespiritofman.blogspot.com/2007/12/angry-students.html
And it doesn’t matter where the regime stands on nukes. What matters is that Iranians need to be freed and the US needs to help us get rid of this regime. Forget the nukes, help us free the country.
ML:
And what also matters, or should matter, to American policy makers, is that Iran has been killing Americans for nearly thirty years, and continues to do it today.
I have some additional videos and photos of the demonstrations over at NRO’s The Corner.
Michael, you’re a true friend of those of us who want to free Iran. Thank You!