So a top Iranian nuclear physicist has died under “mysterious circumstances.” Nothing surprising there. It is rare that anyone of importance in Iran dies under normal circumstances. If he was indeed assassinated, then the Mossad explanation is possible, even probable. But there’s been a lot of talk in Iran of late about “spies” and “traitors” providing secret information to Iran’s enemies about the nuclear program, and he may have been killed by the regime and an “assassination” announced.
Not that it matters, in all probability, since nuclear programs rarely if ever depend on a sole individual. My guess is that the regime killed him and they blamed it on the Jews.
I will again be traveling for the next two days, and will resume blogging Tues afternoon, East Coast time.
Recall, there IS a history of the state of Israel going after foreign scientists. During the fifties and the sixties, German and other European scientists were being offered top dollar to assist in the development of Arab rocket programs. Some of these scientists previously worked for the NAZIS.
The Israelis whacked about half a dozen of them, and soon that put an end to Europeans taking up Arab offers to work on weapons programs.
But it’s a little bit late in the day for the Israelis to start pinpointing Iranian scientists, this should have been an ongoing operation over the last decade.
So I’m with you. IF, IF, the story is accurate, then I’m inclined to believe that this scientist is some Iranian Sakharov type, who began to see that the ruling religious council is taking ALL of Iran down a path of nuclear exchange, thus obliteration.
That makes more sense than the Israelis taking down a scientist.
Though we do have to leave open the possibility that this guy might have been more motivated than most, smarter than most, and thus uniquely warranted getting whacked.
Or maybe Israel is sending a message, “We killed this scientist, and we’ll kill all of you too…unless you drop this program.”
But there is no way that the religious council can climb down from this now. They’re committed. They’ve poured TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars into it, spent almost two decades striving towards a weapon. They’ve got tunnel vision now, they’re completely focused on this.
And the very length of their project, the many years, ALL serves to create a sick, weird apocalyptic MOMENTUM for their bombs. Thus in the pursuit of the bomb, they are finding INCREASED psychological and religious motivation to actually use the thing.
This isn’t for MAD, nor is it because “all of their neighbors” have the bomb.
These guys are whacked.
So we had better start whacking quite a number of them pronto.
any one who doubts that this guy was killed by regime must be out of his/her mind.
Regime is acting like their old Soviet pals. They are getting more vicious and more defiant.
One could make a case that the Russians might have wanted him dead too.
Michael,
I have to respectfully differ with your statement that “…nuclear programs rarely if ever depend on sole individual.” This may be true in the developed world, but in the rest of the world, it is very often run by a single “star” scientist. This was case with Iraq’s nuclear program before Israel’s targeted assassinations disrupted Iraq’s program for 7 years before ultimately giving way to Israeli airstrike(1).
The particular Iranian scientist in question is the star of their program. As the Iranians move from research & development stage to execution & operation, his expertise would have been a big help. Especially with the centrifuges as these machines are very delicate and prone to breaking. Many a country was unable to get centrifuges working properly and gave up their program as a result – Brazil comes to mind. Brazil’s nuclear effort was incidently, also the product of one man,scientist Othon Pinheiro da Silva. Brazil was able to enrich uranium but never could get to the stage of large-scale thousands of centrifuges which is required. Brazil’s program, it should be noted, was started in response to Argentina’s – another country that could not get pass the centrifuge problem.
The Iranian scientist, Ardeshir Hassanpour, a professor at the University of Shiraz would have been a major asset to overcoming the operational issues that are now and will occur. The scientist was proclaimed the best scientist in the military field in the Islamic Republic in 2003. Hassanpour directed the centre for nuclear electromagnetic studies he had founded in 2005. He had also co-founded the center for atomic research in Isfahan, the most important in the country.
Finally, let’s not forget AQ “Father of the Islamic Bomb” Khan from Pakistan is very much responsible for many programs, not the least of which is Pakistan’s.
So we find that in developing countries, without significant expertise in such advanced technological issues, often a single individual from relatively small “brain pools” can be integral to a particular country’s success.
(1) The best work on the 1974-1981 Israeli plan to disrupt Iraq’s nuclear program is Shlomo Nakdimon’s “First Strike”.
ML:
But the Iranians do not need a single scientist, quite the opposite. They get or have gotten help from No. Korea, Russia, Georgia (Shevardnadze even announced it publicly at a press conference: “aren’t you worried by the fact that our best nuclear physicists are all working in Tehran?), Pakistan, Libya, China, and no doubt France, England and Germany. Good grief! So I’m not going to believe that the death of one man is a major event.
Moreover, awash in petrodollars as they are, the mullahs can just buy bombs, can’t they?
Killing one puts the others under protection. If killing one is not enough, it should have been a multiple hit. It then seems too sloppy for Mossad — unless it was merely meant to demoralize and stall or put Iran on notice.
Re: Your answer to Terje’s Feb 5th post, “Moreover, awash in petrodollars as they are, the mullahs can just buy bombs, can’t they?”
Yes, but that does not make them a nuclear power. To be a nuclear power a country must be able to produce nuclear warheads. Think about starting a war with a ship load of ammunition. When the ammunition is expended, well, you have a problem. Iran has everything in place to begin production of uranium nuclear bombs. I suspect they have already produced enough HEU (90% U-235) for one, possibly two bombs. Anyone with enough HEU can build a gun-type bomb. I understand they have an advanced HMX explosive plant at Isfahan. If they have mastered the implosion technique, then they can produce high yield nuclear warheads.
ML:
But if their basic goal is the destruction of Israel and unleashing the Last Battle, then a handful of bombs are sufficient.