Late yesterday I spoke to a senior Western intelligence official, who has followed Iran a lot longer and closer than I have, and we had a little chat. Here are the salient exchanges:
Do you think Khamenei is alive or dead?
“I don’t know. We have good reports on both sides.”
Did you look at the videos purporting to show him speaking in Qom?
“Yes. We have analyzed them carefully, and they could be montages of previous appearances. They could also be genuine.”
How do you evaluate the behavior of the regime about this story?
“It seems pretty clear that Khamenei is either dead or dying, and the regime is trying to figure out how the Iranian people will or would react if his death were announced.”
And what’s it look like?
“They could care less.”
This is of a piece with dozens of conversations I have had with other Iran-watchers. Some think he’s dead, some think he’s as-good-as-dead. The last medical report I have, as of the time he left the hospital more than week ago, reported bad circulation, weak pulse, spiking blood pressure, echos in his ears, virtually no sight in one eye, and severe back pain. He apparently could not get up from a chair or from bed by himself. All this on top of the ongoing pain from cancer. Still, he defiantly told his doctors that he would not die until the Americans were driven out of Iraq, and an islamic republic was declared in Lebanon.
Either way, the mullahs are engaged in a succession struggle, and they are worried that the Iranian people might seize the moment to act against the regime.
It seems unlikely to me that the death of the tyrant–whenever it happens or has happened, and whenever it is announced–will be an occasion for a popular uprising, especially since no Western country has seen fit to actively support the pro-democracy forces in Iran. The senior official’s dry remark, “they couldn’t care less,” accurately encapsulates most Iranians’ contempt for their leaders and defines the opportunity and moral obligation to support democratic revolution, but there is still no sign that any of our leaders has the will to embrace regime change in Iran, or in Syria, the mullahs’ half-brother on the other side of Iraq.
Meanwhile, the power struggle continues apace. There is now an effort in the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, to impeach President Ahmadi-Nezhad. They have collected 38 supporters out of the required 72. An Iranian editor, Issa Saharkhiz, said to Adnkronos “Ahmadi-Nezhad’s golden era is over.” This is a continuation of the anti-Ahmadi-Nezhad campaign within the leadership ranks that surfaced in the results of the most recent “elections,” when he and his followers were slapped down in favor of the so-called “reformists” and the pro-Rafsanjani forces.
And things are so hot in Iran right now that Iranian-made automobiles are setting themselves on fire all over the place. In the past six months, some seven hundred vehicles have spontaneously combusted in Tehran alone. Most of them seem to be local versions of the French Peugeot 405.
Hot as hell.
It’s true about the cars..I have had similar conversation with inside people. But have you seen Eli Lake’s article on Sepah’s bank and Sadarat??.. it’s seems now the administration is are using “Soviet Strategy” to topple the regime. Isn’t this a bit too late to have an immediate impact?
ML:
Nobody really knows. Revolutions have always surprised us.
Hey wait a minute, Michael, are you telling me that the French make Peugeots that spontaneously burst into flames? And they’re selling them to Iran? And not to la racaille in the banlieues? Needless to say this information has not been covered in the French media. Too incendiary!
ML:
Heh. But they’re made in Iran, it seems. French originals cost too much. Too cool, if you see what I mean :=)
Dr. Ledeen,
You have some very serious revelations in this peice. Specially, when you state
“The last medical report I have, as of the time he left the hospital more than week ago, reported bad circulation, weak pulse, spiking blood pressure, echos in his ears, virtually no sight in one eye, and severe back pain. He apparently could not get up from a chair or from bed by himself. All this on top of the ongoing pain from cancer. Still, he defiantly told his doctors that he would not die until the Americans were driven out of Iraq, and an islamic republic was declared in Lebanon”
I am wondering how much confidence do you personally have in the health report above. Are you a hundred percent sure or it is hard to confirm like the leak about his death?
ML:
The medical information I provided a couple of weeks ago was completely accurate. This comes from the same place.
Thanks
ps. What do you prefer to be called, Dr. Ledeen, Mr. Ledeen, Mickeal, or Mike?
Fascinating! In even the most basic treatments of game theory, the strategy of Player 1 is meaningless without knowledge both of the strategy of Player 2 and the contingent payoffs of both players. It seems that there is universal contempt for Bush strategy, but almost no one has anything whatsoever to say about the enemy’s strategy or its payoffs. This, by definition, renders meaningless anything these pundits have to say. Dr. Ledeen has more to say than anyone else I’ve read about what the terror masters are up to, and that is one big (but not the only) reason why he is so important to this debate. I think President Bush and his administration actually have a lot more knowledge than any of us, and a more coherent strategy then we realize. I don’t know what it is, but I can speculate. I think that battling these terrorists is like shooting fish in a barrel (3000 or more terrorists killed or captured each month, just in Iraq) and that there is a finite number of them. Iran and Iraq have both been on a war footing for nearly three decades, with millions of cumulative casualties. Iran’s economy is in tatters, and the military burden just to maintain the mullahs’ control within Iran must be huge and growing. The terror masters are engaged on multiple military fronts, including Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, and elsewhere. And of course they are being routed in Somalia and (contrary to media reports) took a pounding last summer in Lebanon. Things are nowhere near as grim as everyone makes them out to be.
I know that Dr. Ledeen believes that Bush has no strategy at all in the WOT, but I find that completely implausible. All of the evidence, circumstantial as it may be, points to a war of attrition strategy whereby Bush seeks to exhaust the enemy’s resources. The only question is, how much longer before the enemy is bankrupt? If this is Bush’s strategy, it is 180 degrees different from the “faster, please” approach that Dr. Ledeen is (and has been) counseling. As much as I admire and respect Dr. Ledeen, I admire and respect President Bush even more. I think I may be the only person in America who does!
ML:
I so hope you’re right. I so hope I”m wrong.
Michael, when we had our go-round last month after you trashed the report from “al-AP” as you charmingly call it that a second carrier group would be headed for the Gulf — which I also reported — I believe that you justified it by decrying anonynmous sources.
ML:
May well be. My point is that I can get you several anonymous sources to prove anything. And al-AP has certainly earned its reputation, don’t you think?
The Khomeinist party occupying Iran must be in shamble these days. Beside financial blows as a result of blocking Bank Sepah by US treasury, Germans who for the past 25 years dealt with Mullahs in the tunes of $8B per year now have problem with the terrorist regime of Khomeinists occupying Iran.
It seems even their terrorist friend Mashal thing of Hamas under pressure from US now is backing off and back slapping Ayatoolahs mouths. Mashal now saying Israel is a fact and Palestinians must accept it.
In another development in regards to preparation of Khamenehi’s death, a friend just back from Iran who visited Qom said, Khomeinists are extending the Qom highway from Khomeinie grave yard to Jamkaran. Apparently Jamkaran is going to be the grave yard of Khamenehi. They call the new extention “Haram Be Haram highway”.
ML:
It’s certainly a mess. Dante would have a field day…
You mean to tell me that intelligence officials don’t know what’s going on inside of Iran? This is almost like the intelligence officials who couldn’t forsee the fall of the Berlin Wall, or better yet, the intelligence officials who to gather information in Iran after the ousting of the Shah put 11 CIA officers in Tehran, none of whom spoke Persian. Talk about Faster Please, someone needs desperately to restructure the recruitment and clearance processes at all the agencies.
The people may care less what happens to Khamnei today, but if he dies there’s bound to be some reaction. Your post that he had died provoked reactions from throughout the blogosphere.
As far as impeaching AJ, what are your thoughts on Khatami trying to restylize himself as the IR’s Gorbachev (only with a turban to cover up any birthmarks shaped like the Ukraine)?
ML:
Well we know about the Intel Community. I mean, how many commissions does it take to prove the incompetence of the IC?
And sure, Khatami would love to get back in power, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Love the line about the birthmark.
I have made a fair amount of money betting with AP reporters on the outcome of elections. I think AP skews liberal in its view of things.
However, none of their reports in my experience have been utterly false. Slanted is not the same as fake.
And we now know that there is a Jamil Hussein.
We also know that Iraq is a disaster area, even if some of the reporting is anti-American.
The point is that AP was right about the movement of the second carrier to the Gulf. Although, actually, Eisenhower is no longer in the Gulf, now engaged in operations in the Indian Ocean. They don’t need her to direct an AC-130 over Somalia.
We both know that without anonymous sources — such as your anonymous sources on happenings in Iran — little confidential information gets out.
ML:
Thanks. Much appreciated. On the other hand, much of what anonymous sources say shouldn’t be said at all. And most of their information is partial, or slanted, etc. It doesn’t absolve us from doing the hard work of checking.
When I was in government I rarely spoke off the record. If I had something to say, I said it. If I didn’t want to be credited as the source, I didn’t say anything. I can only remember one time I spoke off the record to a journalist, a person I liked, who had a ‘story’ that was totally wrong. I went off the record to explain to him why I thought the fable was dead wrong.
Anyway–correct me if I’m wrong please–the issue about american flotillas in the gulf is whether an attack is pending. I just don’t believe it. And as you know, I don’t want it either.
Hi
could you please be more specific !
what kind of cancer KH suffers from ?
regards
ML:
As soon as I get his white cell count I’ll let you know.
35000 die in car accidents in Iran annually and now add this
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6245463.stm
Smog is killing Iranians.
Like mullahs killing people wasn’t enough…
have you seen this article (you would need a translator) http://www.jamejamonline.ir/shownews2.asp?n=176668&t=acc ?
it appears that UFO’s are acting faster than America in attacking Iran?
I guess Aliens have heard your “faster please” slogan
Here is an English article about the UFO’s in Iran…
or maybe it is the Americans finally!!
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8510200361
Michael: Deception and sources walk together.Elemental I think.The Tehran regime today may be a reminder of the former Soviet Unions Dezinformatsia or active measures, when some of its leaders were ill and die.The same struggle.The same mystery. After the last brainstorm on Khamenei whereabouts and status, we can learn again that for both,journalists and intelligence services, the accuracy of the source is a nightmare.As you can know what James Jesus Angleton once said:”Deception is a state of the mind and the mind of the State”.
So far or fast,the true shall emerge from deep waters.I pray to be fast.
US never attack a legitimate diplomatic mission.
Before Mullahs, Ayatoolehs, and their friends in LeftOver media cry wolf and object to US raid on a terrorist facility called consulate by Khomeinists and Barzani, let us investigate the situation and present the facts.
Arbil building attacked by American is not a consulate. Why? Iraq government which can assign diplomatic mission does not control the North. So-called Kurdistan entity is not a recognize government and can’t assign or allow legally diplomatic missions. What Barzani let Iranian have is not therefore a legitimate diplomatic mission or consulate. Khomeinists buy these rights by paying cash to corrupt individual like Barzani. As such Barzani can not authorize diplomatic mission, and so the building used by terrorist’s khomeinists is not a consulate but a terrorist den. Therefore, it is a legitimate target in war against terrorism. Simple.
Hey agai; and again it is around 6:00 here and the rumor still hangs over!
Our dream (rather mine) didnt come true on Monday Michael. But I’m not losing hope. Never underestimate the power of COUGHS! It was the very very 1st time he coughed (not only once!) on a public appearance, and it was the kind of cough not for clearing your voice!
He was definitly ill, and have to expect the news soon.
Here I am waiting 1)the would say “the great leader is ill, so everybody pray for his health; 2)the verses of Koran being recited from radio & TV; 3)”the great leader’s soul has joind Allah!”
the IsraelNN has said Mahdavi Kani is standing by as the interim. It is possible. But it will be a shpw down between Rafsanjani and the rest. Rafsanjani managed things so well when Khomeini died, so he is experienced. Hope Bushie will hold his horses until then, cus looks like he is coming head to head!
Verily a revelation is at hand!
I think this sentence is so funny: he defiantly told his doctors that he would not die until the Americans were driven out of Iraq, and an islamic republic was declared in Lebanon.
and we don’t want any Revolutions,we want some reformistic movements
It is a reality that after the revolution, US didn’t pay much attention to the Iranian people. They prefered to use enemies insead. But did it really work? of course not.
I think now you need to use the same method that Ahmadinejad used. Populism works so good in Iran. Why doesn’t USA realize this simple concept and doesn’t start showing support for the people? I am sure it is so easy for them.
ML:
I think one of the strengths of President Bush has been his constant support for freedom for the Iranian people.
I saw a documentary about supporting oppositions of Polland’s communist regime several years back. Most of the shots were real and they showed how easy it was for CIA to carry some print machines to Polland and print papers against the regime and that how successful this simple method was for them!
When you repeatedly say “Iranians killing Americans”, it just makes the relations more complicated. Majority of Iranians are so disappointed by hearing that everyday they are counted for any wrong thing that IR regime is doing.
My friendly advise to you and other officials, please always keep in mind that when you say anything bad about IR, clearly separate the people from the regime. Otherwise it just makes everything worse.
Thanks
Sorry, forgot to say that my last post was in continue to the idea that US can do a great job in this chaotic situation in Iran by getting help from Iranian people.
May be a good idea is to allow a lot of young people come from Iran to the USA for studying, etc. This might make a new generation of friendship. It is never late.
Thanks
Dr. Ledeen,
Kh. was supposed to meet with a Pakistani senate delegation:
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0701053266173054.htm
The delegation stayed in Iran for about a week but it seems the meeting never took place. Now the delegation led by senator Mushahid Hussain has left for Uzbekistan.
http://www.app.com.pk/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1973&Itemid=2
Maybe that is because Kh. has been busy getting married to Anna:
http://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/136137.php
Ask your source whether Kh. plans to retire to enjoy his new bride?
I wonder if you have seen this report in DailyMAil today:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=428156&in_page_id=1811
Please note the second part related to Hekmatyar. Now please remember, Hekmatyar was in Iran under the protection of terrorist regime occupying Iran for many years. He was let go by Khomeinists just after the 9/11.
It is now reported that he facilitated OBL and his deputies so-called escape right after he was let go by Khomeinists. Now why US didn’t care about his release is a mystery to me.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/FA07Ag01.html
You mentioned Hekmatyar in this article:
http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/leeden200507150807.asp
Please also remember, Hez-Bol-Aldave headed by the guy just visited DC (al-Hakim), was maintained by Khomeinist from 1980.
http://middleeastreference.org.uk/iraqiopposition.html#dawa
This is the party with majority of the representative in Iraq now. Now again why US allowed this people to establish themselves in Iraq is another mystery.
Still some people say there is no link between Khomeinists, supporters of OBL, terrorists in Iraq, and those who run Iraq. Are you kidding?
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to connect Khomeinists to Hekmatyar,OBL,Iraq, and Afghanistan. Do you?
ML:
No you don’t, but those of us who have pointed out these connections for the past several years have been called a lot of bad names.
ML:
I think one of the strengths of President Bush has been his constant support for freedom for the Iranian people.
Thanks Michael for your comment. Again this shows that we know very little about each other. For an Iranian, words do not have any value. Not even as much as spending 1 mili calory of energy.
For decades they have heard anything and have been cheated by any method that you cannot even imagine based on your American “relatively” honest culture.
How many of American top correspondents went silent when they were interviewing with Ahmadinejad? when briliant and professial people like Brian Williams, Christian Amanpour and many others were shocked by his sophistry, you can imagine what they have done with Iranian people!
Iranians need to see actions, they are tired of hearing words.
Thanks.
ML:
Yes of course. That’s why this blog is called “Faster, Please!”
one thing I want to add is that Iranians do really care about Iran. they have a very complecated personality. I mean if there will be anything like occuping and taking the 3 Islands in Persian Gulg by Arabs ever happen then Iranians will be fighting it even if it means to be hand in hand with “the enemy” (mullahs). It is something mullas also are aware of so they are trying to tell people that this is US’s and other countries’ intention. If something like that happen then US will be defeated I’m sure. Iranians are not Arabs, althought to Americans they all seem the same. I know Bush wants to have support of Arab countries but he should be careful about Iranian dignity and their love for their land. if he does then people will embrace Americans like they (Americans) can’t even believe it. Iranians are waiting for US to come and rescue them. I don’t think they care about oil. Now mullas are taking them so if US takes it at least people have freedom.
PS: Sorry for my English.
ML:
Yes, Iranians care a lot about their land, and they are obsessed with dignity in the same way some asian peoples are obsessed with face. Good points all.