Weight simulation assuming normally-distributed weights around the slope.

That chart is a simulation: I made a line that had the same rough slope as my weight loss, and then made synthetic data points around that line. The points are normally distributed — the famous bell curve beloved of statisticians — and the variance is around 5 pounds. Notice how similar they look?

And that’s the point. I am losing weight — and yes, my glucose is also dropping still, and the tape measure shows I’m losing body fat. Day to day, though, it’s hard to see — perfectly normal randomness is hiding it. It’s hard to see.

But then, I’ve only got 147 frames of this animation — a little over 6 seconds of film. It might be a little early to be discouraged.


Date 7 day Weight 7 day Glucose 7 day Bodyfat Sum Fitocracy Points Weekly Fitocracy Points
2013-02-01 272.50 116.43 33.1 447 447
2013-02-07 272.63 114.57 30.79% 1881 1881
2013-02-14 271.91 110.43 30.36% 2606 725
2013-02-21 273.79 115.29 29.16% 3775 1169
2013-02-28 274.44 104.00 30.00% 4929 1154
2013-03-07 273.11 115.86 30.24% 6022 1093
2013-03-14 269.86 101.86 30.10% 7233 1211
2013-03-14 272.08 112.25 30.64% 7681 448
2013-03-14 270.57 113.86 30.26% (??) 8180 499
Δ since 2-1 -1.93 -2.57 -2.88% N/A N/A