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August 15, 2006

INSTAPUNDIT READERS SURE LIKE RUDY GIULIANI, judging from the poll below. I believe he's led in pretty much all the blogospheric straw polls, but this margin is huge. I'm pretty sure that Newt is overperforming, too.

UPDATE: Brian Erst emails:

The results for your Republican presidential candidate straw poll were about what I expected. Giuliani in a landslide, followed by Gingrich.

I've always thought the faithful Instapundit reader was first and foremost a security voter, not a Republican, and they are definitely going to break for Giuliani. Wonks and geeks make up a big chunk of the rest, so they (like me) went for Gingrich, the geekiest wonk out there. Neither will probably survive the real Republican primary though. Giuliani is too liberal for primary voters, and Gingrich is (brilliantly) damaged goods.

That leaves the real fight - McCain/Allen/Romney. McCain can easily win the main election, and is the second-place finisher in the last Republican primaries (Repubs tend to promote the runner-up to the head of the next ticket), so he's the prohibitive favorite. George Allen can make watching wallpaper dry seem like the mosh pit at a late-80s Pantera concert, but has a good organization. Romney is the best pure politician out there - if McCain stumbles, Romney will be turned into the Ronald Reagan of Latter-Day Saints...

We'll see. I'm not sure that Giuliani will do as badly in the Republican primaries as the conventional wisdom suggests. And Allen's been more interesting than he'd probably like, lately.

UPDATE: Stephen Green doesn't like the selection: "I'd say the choices fall into three categories - unelectable, undesirable, or both."

Various people think I should have included Condi, but I was trying to limit the field to the core.