I think a lot of conservatives’ otherwise puzzling support for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign can be explained for the most part by those conservatives’ opposition to the Iraq war. See, e.g., Andrew Sullivan and Doug Kmiec. So I’ll offer them a long bet: If Obama wins and pulls all US combat troops out of Iraq by the end of June 2010, they win. If Obama wins and there’s 50,000 or more US combat troops in Iraq at the end of December 2010, I win. Anything in the middle and bet’s off. Deal?
Well, I don’t think Andrew’s supporting Obama based on gay marriage. Though if so he’s likely to be disappointed there, too. Maybe I should offer a bet on whether a President Obama would push recognition for gay marriage by 2010. . . .