NOAM SCHEIBER on Clinton vs. Obama and Carter vs. Kennedy. “Hillary’s only path to the nomination, barring a meltdown by Obama, is to destroy his electability. But harsh attacks on Obama will inevitably discourage African Americans from voting in the fall, and Hillary can’t beat McCain without strong black turnout in places like Cleveland, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Conversely, any attack on Hillary that alienated moderate Republican women could cripple Obama’s chances.” And not just black voters, but all the Obama faithful. Yes, I mentioned this a while back, and now it’s become conventional wisdom.
Meanwhile, Obama can’t seem to shake the Jeremiah Wright problem. He’s got a similar double bind — alienate black supporters, or push away white supporters. The willingness of some of his current supporters to label every criticism racist only intensifies that dilemma, of course, and undercuts his original “transformative” appeal further.
UPDATE: More here: “In rejecting the racist views of his longtime spiritual mentor but not disowning him, Obama has unwittingly enhanced his image as the African American candidate — as opposed to being just a remarkable candidate who happens to be black. That poses a dilemma for unelected superdelegates, who as professional politicians will settle the contest because neither Obama nor Clinton can win enough elected delegates to be nominated.”
ANOTHER UPDATE: Related thoughts from Walter Shapiro at Salon. “Democrats are being barraged with new information about the candidates long after most of them have made a binding decision on a nominee. It is akin to being given a subscription to Consumer Reports the day after you bought a new car.”