DON’T GET COCKY: Senate Democrats’ 2014 hopes keep getting dimmer.
GROUND GAME: Paul Caron reports from Ohio: “Wife and I voted in Ohio when polls opened at 6:30 a.m. Campaign worker was there handing out Republican sample ballot. No one was there handing out Democratic sample ballot.”
UPDATE: Craig Hildreth reports from St. Louis: “29 minutes after the polls opened at 6:00 AM and the line is fifty people deep. The good news is I don’t see any broken glass.” Well, that’s a comfort.
And reader Daniel Richwine writes: “I live in a high percentage minority area in New jersey. Normally it takes me 5 minutes to vote. 4 years ago it took 1 and a half hours. Last governors race, 5 minutes. This time it took about 15.”
Reader Charles Gallo writes: “Never before seen a line to vote at 6:30am here on Queens NYC.”
And reader Steve Gregg writes from Vienna, in Northern Virginia: “There are three hundred or more voters here. Another fifty joined the line since I took this photo a minute ago. The line snakes out of the gym, down the hall, down another hall, around the corner, into another gym. I’ve been voting here for ten years and this line has about a hundred more voters than the biggest line I’ve ever seen.” Let’s hope they’re broken-glass voters. Here’s the pic he sent:
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Tom Kazazes sent this from Greenwich, CT at 5:45: “This is my third cycle voting at this location and I have never seen a line like this 15 minutes before voting commences. Meaning, who knows, just different than in past in a state which is a ‘lock’ for Obama.” Maybe somebody forgot to turn the key.
And reader Mike Collins writes: “Hello from Arlington VA, where our choice for local races is usually between a Dem and a Green. Anecdote from this morning: in 2008, my wife and I arrived at the polls at 5:30AM and were around 250th in line. Today we arrived at 5:50 and were around 40th in line. Take it for what it’s worth, but I think it’s a hopeful sign re: enthusiasm.”
Meanwhile, Jeff Carter reports from Chicago: “At Instapundit, they show lines in several places. In Chicago at my polling place there wasn’t a long line. I waited five minutes.”
And reader Jacques Vilar sends: “I was in line at my polling place (Gainesville, VA) – at 5:30am with 30 people in line. At 5:45, there were near 100. By the time the doors opened at 6:00, at least 200 people in line. By the time I voted and walked to my car, at least 500 people were in line.”
And Jim Gordon emails: “Here in White House, Tn in Sumner County, 70+ people Were in line before the doors opened at 7. Although this area’s ‘Redness’ is given, I find it encouraging that voters have come out this wet, cold morning to have their say.”
Plus, from reader Jon Prichard: “I’m hoping for ‘breaking dawn’ over twilight today. I always appreciate your ‘Don’t get cocky!’ admonition, but today is the time to go out and get it done, with confidence and high spirits. So I hope to pass along this message: ‘Today, don’t rest easy in the comfort of your echo chamber. Venture into the breach and be a megaphone!’ Thanks for the greatest blog in the world!” Thank me by voting.
Another Chicago voter, Sarah Fredricks, writes: “In my Chicago suburb, there was a line in 2008 when we arrived at 6:30 and it took about 30 minutes to vote. Today, no line and it would have taken 5 minutes, but there was a problem with the voting machine accepting ballots. The poll workers were professional and corrected the matter in a few minutes. There has not been the enthusiasm in Illinois this election cycle, very few Obama signs.”
And reader Doug Deal from Georgia reports “extremely long lines” in his precinct: “I decided to go to the polls first thing today and arrived at 7:05 AM, 5 minutes after they opened. I counted and I was about 120th in line. . . . the people in front of me did have a bit of a certain broken glass look to them. It is a fairly Republican precinct and it looks like that even in a non tossup state the GOP is turning out.”
Pittsburgh reader Roland Hess emails: “Voting in suburban Pittsburgh was easy. Decent line. Our precinct usually goes R, so that says not a lot. Was very disappointed in the lack of broken glass on the bridge between the parking lot and the polls though. It was too easy. After the last four years, I felt like I at least deserved a soundtrack, some slow-mo and a bit of drama as I pulled the lever. While watching election returns I make a point to drink whatever my preferred candidate drinks. So what do I drink tonight? Milk?”
It’s Tullamore Dew for me all the way. Loyalty has its limits.
Reader Mark Ludolph writes: “Reporting from a redish area in Blue Illinois. Longest wait I have ever encountered – an hour+. Not a single close race on the ballot, but huge turnout. Can’t imagine many Obama voters here.”
And reader Eric McErlain emails from Northern Virginia: “Got on line at 6:12, didn’t get out of polling place till almost 7.”
Plus, from Pitsburgh: “Take it for what it’s worth, but there was no line this morning at 8 in East Liberty, a heavily democratic area of Pittsburgh (probably 90+%). Four years ago, there was a 30+ minute line to vote there. Please don’t add my name if you print this, as I work there.” Perhaps one day America can have politics without fear. Easier if Obama loses, I suspect . . . .
ANOTHER UPDATE: David Kirkham emails: “Lines are 1 to 1 1/2 hours here in Utah. I have never waited anywhere close to that long. I think the entire state is going to vote for Romney. I predict Romney has very long coat tails in Utah which will help Mia Love unseat Matheson. It will be a tough day for Democrats in Utah (and, I hope, across the USA).”
Jim Ryals writes from Mandeville, Louisiana: “For the first time since we moved to Louisiana we had to stand in line to vote. The volunteers, most of whom have been doing this for years, said they’ve never seen anything like it. One person told me that normally, they would open up at 6 and get their first voter in about 7:15 or so. Today, people were line up into the parking lot when they opened. They got another wave at 7:30 that had people lined up out the doors. This is the most conservative parish in a red state, but if this is any indication, there is big, big momentum for Mitt.”
The redder the area, the longer the lines, it seems. But not always. A reader sends this from deep in the heart of machine-controlled St. Louis where turnout is heavy:
Here in the (heavily-Democrat, machine-controlled) City of St. Louis, the polling places are JAM-PACKED. All that reporting about Obama voters being discouraged and not showing up turns out to be hooey here. Republicans need to show up today and fight them back! Though, reports are that (conservative) St. Louis County polling places are also packed. I suspect many are there to vote in the Senate race, which is VERY heated in Missouri thanks to that idiot Todd Akin. If Obama manages to win Missouri, I think you can thank Todd Akin for that. He gave lackluster Claire all the ammunition she needed to get her base fired up and enthusiastic. Even my incredibly conservative rural family (evangelical Christians all) are waffling on voting for Akin because of the embarrassment of it all.
The other issue many people are citing re: their enthusiasm today? Marriage equality. It’s not on the ballot in Missouri, but nobody believes that Republicans won’t continue to work on oppressing gays; and a vote for Romney is a vote for social cons. (My sample may be skewed because I have so many gay friends, most of whom will disown me if they find out that I cast my Romney vote today.) If the GOP expects support in the future, if they expect to make ANY inroads into the under-35 crowd, they have got to get on board the marriage equality wagon, stop worrying about what everyone is doing in the privacy of their own homes, and just get the government out of the way so the economy can work. But of course, I’m pretty libertarian so I would say that.
If you publish this, don’t use my name because I’m a government employee and I need to keep sucking the taxpayer teat for a few more years, til my law school loans are paid off!
Praying for a Romney victory and a Republican Congress,
Well, we’ll see soon enough.
Meanwhile, reader Dan Koblosh sends this from Redondo Beach, California, one of Los Angeles’ redder areas: “Long line waiting for polling place to open. Can’t wait to vote for Romney and against Gov Moonbeam’s (Brown) tax hikes.”
Here’s a pic he includes:
And from Colorado, Mike Weatherford writes:
Just a bit of anecdotal data on voter turnout here in Colorado Springs, CO. My wife and I voted when we dropped off our youngest child at school, also the polling place. We were number 51 and 53 to vote. There was a line of at least fifteen people down the hall. The last time I voted, I voted at 4:30PM, and was number 120-something. Our district is mostly older families that have lived in the same neighborhood for 20-30 years, and are mostly staunch Republicans or Independents. I expect the number of voters in our district to reach the 200 mark, something I haven’t seen since Clinton won re-election.
Stay tuned. And reader Bob Sanders emails: “Longest line I’ve ever seen, Forward Township, Butler County. North of Pittsburgh. As I was casting my vote I overheard the man across from me talking with the Assistant who was helping him, ‘I don’t give a damn about the instructions, I’m voting straight Republican this time. Where do I click?’”
From reader Matthew Teague, who doesn’t give a location:
Today at the polls I met a “ground glass” voter.
He was in his early 50′s, and as he stood in line he was asking the election workers what documents he needed to vote. He said he hadn’t voted “since they started requiring all this annoying paperwork”. I asked him why he had let such a low hurdle trip him up, and his response is one I will never forget: “I didn’t really have a reason to vote before, everything was going fine and there was no reason to change it… until now”.
I’m hoping for a lot of this. reader Brad Scheidt sends this Oklahoma report:
Voting in South Tulsa County, Oklahoma is like nothing I’ve ever seen – ever. Waits over an hour, limited parking, lines out the door and down the sidewalk, etc. This is an area that will go Romney 3-1 easily. Can you say “enthusiasm”?
Like I said. Diana Sherlock writes: “Am in Studio City/North Hollywood area and never seen lines like this – around the bldg.” I assume that’s an Obama area, though I don’t really know. Jerry Pournelle lives around there. . . .
From Berks County, Pennsylvania, reader Eric Shelton reports:
At 7 am this morning there was already a 65 minute line in 25 degree weather. In 08 this County went 8.5% for Obama, given the number of Republican voters in line and Indys/Dems who freely admitted they were switching their vote this time, Berks isn’t looking good for the Prez.
People seem impressed with Mitt’s intelligence and kindness.
As they should be. From Manhattan, reader Meryl Levavi contrasts government with the private sector:
I went to vote at 9:15 this morning at the polling place on West 70th Street. The lines were moderately long. It took me 35 minutes to vote. A few blocks from Lincoln Center and Zabars the process was amazingly inefficient. Instead of posting a sample ballot or having someone walk the line with instructions the poll workers explained the ballot to each person individually. If I were on a line that length at the Trade Joe’s on 72nd Street and Broadway I would have my groceries packed and be out the door in 10 minutes.
Well, NYC isn’t looking especially efficient lately.
From southern New Hampshire, Nathaniel Jensen reports: “I just voted in Amherst – a staunch republican town of 10,000 in southern NH. Massive turnout at the high school unlike anything I’ve ever seen on election day. I take this to be a very good sign for Romney. May God and the people save our country!”
From Colorado, John Walker emails: “I voted this morning in southwest Weld County, Colorado (a heavily Republican county). I got there at 7:12 and waited 40 minutes to vote. The line was longer when I left than when I went in.”
From Arizona: “Orangewood precinct in NW central Phoenix volunteers told me that *already* more have voted by 10:30 am that voted in either the primary or the last general election.”
John Torbett writes from Santa Monica: “I just voted at my polling place in the Peoples’ Republic of Santa Monica and it took me about 45 minutes to get through the line. In 2004 and 2008, I only had to wait about 5 minutes. The 50 something, gray haired hippie in front of me in line asked how to ‘write in’ a candidate. I don’t know what it means since Obama is supposed to win California by 15% and in my precinct Roseanne Barr will probably get more votes than Romney, but the turnout was heavier than I have ever seen it here.”
ROMNEY PENNSYLVANIA RALLY DRAWS 30,000: Great pics and tweets at Breitbart.com. HUGE crowd. Fox carried it live. Mittmentum. But don’t get cocky. Just vote.
ROMNEY UP BY 1 in DEEP BLUE MINNESOTA: According to an American Future Fund poll, Romney is up 46-45 in . . . Minnesota. He has a 13 point advantage with Independents. When it rains, it pours.
UPDATE: A reader emails: “My GF is a DFL party major donor in St. Paul…..they are pissing themselves…… For the love of God don’t use my name, she’s hot, but communicate the feeling……..” Well, make of that what you will. We’ll know soon enough. Meanwhile, don’t get cocky!
THEY DON’T SEE IT COMING: This Politico story is almost funny–they are scratching their progressive heads, wondering why early voting numbers are relatively even. In their words:
Republicans claim that although Democrats are leading in early voting in most battleground states, they are simply “cannibalizing” or diluting their Election Day turnout by turning out voters who would otherwise come out on Election Day.
Senior Obama officials aggressively refute this by pointing to the number of first-time voters they have registered in battleground states. In Florida and Colorado, for example, they have registered an overwhelming number of new Latino voters, who tend to vote Democratic. (In Florida, Democrats say the bulk of the new Latino voters are Puerto Ricans, who are more likely to vote Democratic than are Cuban-Americans). In those states, the campaign has used Spanish-speaking volunteers to return repeatedly to the voters it has registered until they have mailed in their ballots or gone to the polls.
In addition, in hotly contested Ohio — where voters don’t register by party affiliation and where 1.2 million people have already voted — Obama officials point out that of the newly registered voters, 83 percent are either women, young voters or minorities — which they believe works to Obama’s advantage.
What they don’t see coming–or are choosing not to see–is the absolutely massive, crawl-over-broken-glass turnout for Romney (and against Obama) on Tuesday.
But again: Don’t get cocky– just VOTE.
BIG TIME MITTMENTUM: SUSQUEHANNA POLL SHOWS ROMNEY UP BY 4 IN PENNSYLVANIA: Whoa. If this is accurate– and Susquehanna is Pennsylvania’s best, most accurate pollster– the race is OVER. Romney 49%, Obama 45%.
But for all the superstitious readers out there (including me): Don’t get cocky!!!!
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
The WaPo also believes that the GOP may add to its 2010 house gains. If that prediction plays out, Ed Morrissey writes, “we’d be looking at a 2010 midterm model … and a lot of pollsters will have egg on their faces on Wednesday.”
Speaking of which, there’s one enormous caveat to all of the above predictions: Dick Morris still thinks Romney can win.
UPDATE: Don Surber asks, “Where’s Michael Barone’s ‘don’t get cocky, kid?’”
What — doesn’t the Dick Morris addendum count?
I keed — I keed. But I think the Chicago Boyz have the right attitude going into the weekend.
GREAT ARTISTIC DECISION, KID — BUT DON’T GET COCKY: George Lucas Just Saved Star Wars by Firing George Lucas.
OPTIMISM: Dick Morris: Here Comes The Landslide.
Peter Ingemi: Ride Right Through Them, They’re Demoralized As Hell!
Michael Graham: My Prediction: Mitt Wins!
Me: It’s nice to see some confidence compared with last summer, but don’t get cocky, kids.
EVEN MORE MITTMENTUM: N.H. NASHUA TELEGRAPH ENDORSES ROMNEY: Add New Hampshire’s largest newspaper to the growing list of papers that endorsed Obama in 2008 but are abandoning him in droves now. The editors stated:
So the basic question facing The Telegraph editorial board when it met last week came down to this: Did the former Illinois senator do enough to live up to those admittedly high expectations to warrant a second term?
After several hours of spirited debate, not unlike conversations taking place in kitchens and living rooms across America, we reached a consensus that he had not. Perhaps more importantly, when we identified the key challenges facing the nation – jobs, the economy and the national debt – we concluded he was not the best candidate to meet them.
That person is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and we hereby endorse him to become the 45th president of the United States.
But don’t get cocky, y’all.
DON’T GET COCKY: Rasmussen: Romney Projected To Win 279+ Electoral Votes.
No, really, don’t. Especially when, as Jim Geraghty writes, ‘I’m Sandy, and I’m Here to Eat This Week’s News Cycles.’
DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Bob Krumm: Does Ohio Really Matter? “The bottom line is that if Mitt Romney’s popular vote margin is large enough, no matter what happens in Ohio, some other state is going to play Belgium to Obama’s Maginot Line.”
Really, don’t get cocky. It’s all about showing up. Save the crowing until the showing’s done. Which doesn’t mean I don’t hope he’s right.
UPDATE: Reader Russ Meyer writes: “I’m glad the polls look good for Romney, but please ask people to remember that we all thought the Obamacare decision would go the right way as well, and we were then crushed when it didn’t. Things look great, but we can’t get cocky.” Couldn’t have said it better myself.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Chris Lynch writes: “When the post election postmortem is done I think the numbers will show that in state after state many more Democrats will have voted for the federal offices of Senator or Congressman than voted for the Democrat at the top of the ticket. These folks may not vote for Mitt Romney but by not voting for Barack Obama they will be widening the gap which will be the difference between a slim victory and a landslide. The fiscal policies and the shame of what happened at Benghazi may keep even the most strident Democrat from voting for Obama.” Well, we’ll know soon.
PREDICTION: “Barring some dramatic change in the final ten days or so, Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election,” Jim Geraghty writes — with this additional don’t get cocky-related caveat:
Now, as Al Gore will tell you, a popular-vote win and a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. But it’s also relatively rare for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. And if Obama is running a few percentage points behind his 2008 levels of support in red states and blue states . . . just how much can advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts stem that tide in the purple states?
(It also dovetails perfectly with the subhead of the essay by Matthew Continetti we linked to a few moments ago: “How sarcasm and insult took over the Democratic Party.”)
DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Today’s Fun With Polls: Gallup Party ID. “Basically, Republican vs Democrat is about +1 Republican; include leaners and that’s +3 Republican.
HEH: “I expect the last gasp of the Obama Campaign will involve Joe Biden in a code pink ladypart costume.” But don’t get cocky, kids.
DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Gallup Tracking: Romney 50, Obama 47.
POLIPUNDIT: Could This Be A Wave Election? “Here, in ultra-liberal King County, Obama signs are nowhere to be seen. You do see the occasional Romney sign. But back in 2008, you’d think this was the headquarters of the Cult of Obama.”
I’m hearing that from a lot of places. But don’t get cocky, kid. It all depends on showing up.
DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968. “Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.”
NATIONAL JOURNAL: Polls: Romney Moves Up in Florida, Obama Down a Bit in Ohio.
But don’t get cocky.
UPDATE: Compare this report from Salena Zito: More than half of the people attending Paul Ryan event in Pittsburgh are women, many of them young adults.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader T.J. Linzy writes:
I’m a US citizen that has lived in Europe for 24 years. I just moved back to the USA (Nevada). I am a long time reader of Instapundit. (I like the new multi-blogger format too). . . I just wanted to say thanks and to ask you to double down on your “Don’t get cocky, Kid” remarks. Every other post would be fine with me.
I am hopeful of a Romney win, but also fearful of the echo chamber that led many of us to a serious letdown on the SCOTUS decision on Obamacare.
For the first time ever in my life, I have signed up to do calls for a campaign. The Romney/Ryan has an easy sign up procedure and a very helpful video and instruction page.
For CA residents who know their vote will not carry CA for Romney, there is also program to help in Nevada.
Every little bit helps. Please feel free to use my name.
Indeed it does.
HUGH HEWITT: President Obama’s Closing Act: An Epic Collapse.
The president of course has his passionate supporters. These are the same people that spent last Tuesdaynight declaring him the winner of his second meeting with Mitt Romney, and Wednesday and Thursday trying to infuse the word “binder” with game-changing significance.
They are the same people who spent Friday denying that “not optimal” was not a big deal.
“Binder” –big deal. “Not optimal” –no deal at all. That’s the state of the Obama campaign: A nearly Orwellian effort at making some words matter and others disappear while facts are pushed aside It hasn’t worked. It won’t work..
Mitt Romney by contrast followed two very strong debate showings with a wonderful set of remarks at the Al Smith dinner, the third time in two weeks that he has reassured those just tuning into the presidential campaign that he will be a steady and reliable force for good in the Oval Office.
Romney was ready for his close up. This is the primary reasion behind his surge.
Related: How Romney’s Polling:
According to the latest Gallup survey, Mitt Romney is polling 52% of likely voters. At this point in the race he is ahead of:
Where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 (47%)
Where Ronald Reagan was in 1980 (39% — Carter was six points up)
Where George H.W. Bush was in 1988 (50%)
Where Bill Clinton was in 1992 (40%)
Where George W. Bush was in 2000 (48%)
Where Barack Obama was in 2008 (49%)
Nice polling, kid. Don’t get cocky. It only matters if people show up.
DON’T GET COCKY, KID: New Poll Shows Romney Ahead By 4 in Pennsylvania. “Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin.”
MICHAEL BARONE: Firewall In Ruins? Don’t get cocky, kid. It all depends on who shows up.
CHANGE: Romney Now On Track. “Mitt Romney leads President Obama in national polls, and the president is approaching his all-time low in the RealClearPolitics average. Romney leads in some key swing states (e.g., Florida, Colorado and North Carolina) and has largely erased the deficit in others (Ohio, Virginia, Nevada). His approval rating (the likability rating so many liberals have obsessed about) is in positive territory; the gap between the two candidates’ approval ratings has all but disappeared.” Don’t get cocky, kid.
LOOK BACK IN MAGMA: Evidence that Democrats are in “Last Days of Pompeii” mode.
Great metaphor, kid — but, as our Insta-host is wont to say, don’t get cocky.
GOOD ADVICE: Andrew Klavan: “Don’t Get Cocky.”
THE HILL: Romney Surges Past Obama In Second Poll. “Mitt Romney has overtaken President Obama in a Public Policy Polling survey released on Tuesday. Romney won 49 percent support from likely voters in the poll, compared to 47 percent for Obama. It’s the first time all year Romney has led in the poll, which was conducted on behalf of the liberal Daily Kos website and the Service Employees International Union. Obama led 49-45 percent in the group’s previous poll, conducted before last week’s debate.”
UPDATE: Romney Ahead in Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio. And pulling close in Pennsylvania.
Also: Obama loses lead on key voter issues: economy, national security. “The left, as I suggested, may soon (if not before the election, than certainly after if he loses) reach the point in which Obama is trashed to save liberalism. It is not, the left tells us, the Keynesian record of failure that was to blame for the debate wipeout; rather it was Obama’s cruddy performance. It’s not that liberalism lacks a reform agenda that is both feasible and politically popular, you see. No, the problem was that Obama didn’t shout ‘Liar!’ loudly enough. Given a choice between casting off their false idol and giving up the cult of liberalism, there is no competition. Liberals will have no compunction about dumping Obama.”
MORE: IowaHawk: White House Scientists Struggle to Contain Outbreak of Scrutonium. “Engaged a relentless battle against time and fatigue, a select group of message scientists assembled by the White House’s Center for Narrative Control say they will take “all steps necessary” to contain a recent outbreak of scrutonium, a deadly poll-eating supervirus that attacks the immuno-hope system, leaving victims vulnerable to material facts.”
Related: Obama cultists’ crack-up.
Also: Washington Post Joins “Poll Truthers.” “Exit Question: Is this sample Pew’s attempt to correct itself pre-election or will we see a new poll just before the day re-skewed to try and create the Obama comeback?”
STILL MORE: Fine, enjoy the meltdown — but don’t get cocky!
But reader William Miller emails: “I ran the Chicago Marathon this past weekend, which went through several different neighborhoods in and around downtown Chicago. I did not see one pro-Obama sign. I did see a few Romney signs though. I know it wasn’t a political event, but I assumed that I would be overwhelmed by all of the Obama supporters that the press has been telling me about especially on his home turf.”
Maybe he just isn’t cool any more, and people are embarrassed? Kind of like Jimmy Carter, at the end.
MORE STILL: Reader Carey Cline writes:
I live in an intown Atlanta neighborhood that is very near Emory University, the CDC and a large conservative Jewish synagogue. So my yard is a little island of conservatism in a vast sea of liberal moonbats.
In 2008 every yard (except mine) it seemed had the requisite Obama yard sign. A yeti would have been an easier find than a McCain/Palin sign or sticker.
This morning on my way to work I counted six Romney/Ryan signs….If Obama is losing my neighborhood….oh you know the rest….
Well, don’t get cocky, kids.
SEVERAL READERS EMAIL: “Nice debate. Don’t get cocky kid.”
STANLEY KURTZ TO REPUBLICANS: Don’t Get Cocky.
PAUL RAHE: Another Straw In the Wind:
A few days ago, I drew attention to a Gallup poll indicating that, for the first time in the last twenty years, Americans thought better of the Republican Party than of the Democrats. Later that same day, I pointed to a Pew Foundation poll reaffirming the drift towards the Republicans. Today, I came across further evidence pointing even more emphatically at the same conclusion.
For ten years now, Rasmussen has been studying partisan trends. Its latest survey indicates that, for the first time in that period, more Americans self-identify as Republicans than as Democrats. To be precise, 37.6% now think of themselves as Republicans — more than in September, 2004 — and only 33.3% self-identify as Democrats. What makes this especially interesting is that two years ago — on the eve of the Republican blowout in the 2010 midterm elections — 35% self-identified as Democrats and only 33.8% self-identified as Republicans.
It is a grave error to suppose that everyone in this country has made up his mind. Things are in motion. The Republicans have an argument and a plan, and the Democrats — thanks to the wisdom of Barack Obama — have nothing to offer.
InTrade still has Obama ahead, but I’m not sure why information like this doesn’t have a bigger impact. Anyway, don’t get cocky . . .
ED DRISCOLL WANTS TO BELIEVE, but warns don’t get cocky.
HMM: Study: Economic Data Predict Big Romney Win. “A University of Colorado analysis that has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980 based on state-by-state factors forecasts that Mitt Romney will unseat incumbent Barack Obama to become the new president in November’s general election, according to a release.”
Don’t get cocky, kids.
MICKEY KAUS TO DEMOCRATS ON AKIN: Don’t Get Cocky!
UPDATE: AP poll narrows Obama lead to one point, 47/46. In a heavily Democrat-weighted sample.
Have you noticed that whenever the Dems go on a war-on-women kick, the media says they’re doing well but the polls move in the other direction?
IT’S ROMNEY-RYAN 2012. “Ryan puts the national debt front and center in the election, on par with or maybe even ahead of jobs. This is a winner of an issue, it’s what motivated people in 2010, and it will cause huge turnout.”
UPDATE: Byron York: Romney Goes Bold.
Here’s a bunch of Paul Ryan video. Here’s one:
And on the day Ryan was picked, it’s worth pointing out that we’ve gone 1200 days now without a budget.
Also, thoughts from Ira Stoll.
And Roger Kimball writes: The comeback team (or why Romney will win by a landslide).
The man who has added more than $5 trillion to the federal debt, who is running an annual deficit of some $1.4 trillion, who has burdened American business with a nightmare of stifling regulations, who has squandered hundreds of billions of dollars on failed “green” energy initiatives and non-stimulating “stimulus” packages, who has insinuated government into the private sector in blundering unproductive and fiscally ruinous ways and foisted on an unwilling public the horror of ObamaCare—that chap is going down and going down in a landslide.
Nice veep choice, kid. Don’t get cocky.
MORE STILL: The racist attacks have already started: Liberals point out that Paul Ryan is a white guy.
Meanwhile, reader John Perkins writes: “How long will it be before the MSM writes a snarky article about Romney and Ryan being like two young Mormon missionaries coming to your door. I mean, can Maureen Dowd even resist?” Well, if anyone uses this now, I’m charging them with plagiarizing John Perkins.
Plus: Jennifer Rubin: How Ryan Got The Job. “Romney is above all else a problem-solver, a doer and a fixer. Ryan, likewise, is a policy maven who has since 2007 been trying to advance budget, tax and health-care reforms, moving the Republican Party to become the champion of market-based reform. Ryan is a smart man, certainly the smartest in Congress, with an eye for detail and a facility with numbers. Romney prizes brains, precision and the ability to wield numbers. Ryan uses a scalpel, not a sledge hammer in skewering his opposition; Romney likewise uses piles of data to slay his competitors (as he did in the Florida and Arizona GOP primary debates). Ryan is personally and professionally disciplined, a straight arrow with a gee-whiz brand of optimism. Romney is as well. . . . The left will be effusive about the opportunity to renew Mediscare. But the Ryan team has been fighting that fight for some time and is perfectly willing to engage President Obama, who has heckled but not lead on entitlement reform. Who better than Ryan to take on the president while Romney sails above the fray?”
And: Steve Hayward: “Ryan wants to have an adult conversation with America about the looming insolvency of the welfare state, and he has a serious plan to fix it. . . . I suspect Ryan is one of the few Republicans Obama genuinely fears; after all, Ryan schooled Obama in Obama’s faux-’health care summit’ early last year. (Obama does not look pleased in the video.) David Brooks reports, by the way, that Obama never picks up the phone to try to talk with Ryan. Ryan is not simply fearless about the issues, he also gets the larger picture, and can talk about the larger picture.”
NICE MODEL, KID. NOW DON’T GET COCKY. Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide.
PLAYING DEFENSE ON SMALL BUSINESS: Obama’s “I am not a witch” ad. I don’t believe him. He clearly weighs the same as a duck. “Apparently, Obama’s standing on the economy has so fallen so low that the argument for his reelection is now reduced to ‘I don’t hate business. Honest.’”
UPDATE: Gov. Bobby Jindal:
President Obama is in New Orleans today. One wonders if, during his visit to the Crescent City, he will repeat the now infamous claim that “If you have a business, you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.” Given the firestorm that erupted after that claim, it’s doubtful he will do so.
But we should not forget his words. President Obama’s comments were not a one-off gaffe. Instead, they define his administration.
Plus, Ann Althouse reviews Obama’s ad: “Apparently, he’s gotten the message that nastily attacking Romney isn’t working. Here’s his new ad, in which he actually seems kind of like Romney . . . . Snuck in there is the old Obama theme: tax the rich. It’s camouflaged within a lot of Romneyesque pro-capitalism talk. I think the Obama people have decided that lefty edge is a loser. Americans will chose capitalism over socialism if you make it stark. So he’s repackaging himself as moderate.” It worked in 2008, but he had a less visible track record then.
MORE STILL: Useful advice from reader Mark Throneberry: “DONT GET COCKY! DONT GET COCKY! DONT GET COCKY!”
DAN RIEHL: Priceless: WaPo blames constitutional law instructor Obama for possible ObamaCare Failure. “We can’t know for certain how the Court may rule on health care this week. But watching Washington as usual play out driven by a sense of doom is still something of a hoot. If it does go down and Obama fails to win re-election, he won’t have any positive legacy at all in the end.”
Perhaps if Obama had ever written any scholarly articles on the Commerce Clause, he’d have had a better understanding. But then, he never wrote any scholarly articles on anything. As former Obama colleague Richard Epstein said: “I like Obama but I reject the suggestion that he is an intellectual. He is an activist merely mimicking the mannerisms of an intellectual.”
UPDATE: Reader Dean Cheng writes:
As you regularly warn, “Don’t get cocky kid.”
So, everyone THINKS that the Supremes will overturn Obamacare, at least in part, and perhaps in whole.
But what if that doesn’t happen? What if, by a 5-4 decision, the Supremes decide that Obamacare is Constitutional? Shoot, what if they decide that Obama is right, and it would be politically too hard to overturn the thing? Not that they would necessarily phrase it that way in their decision, of course.
I’m not suggesting that SCOTUS will uphold Obamacare, only to hold off on the schadenfreude and celebrating and end-zone spiking until after the Supreme Court has actually RULED on the thing, AND overturned it?
Good point. Don’t get cocky, kid. Though the lefties’ pre-decisional flailing is too amusing to ignore entirely.
Related: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 38%. Nice poll, kid. Don’t get cocky.
BRYAN PRESTON: Five Things Mitt Romney and the Republicans Are Doing Right.
Nice blogging, kid. Don’t get cocky.
ANDREW MALCOLM: Obama’s 2008 base is cracking: Gallup.
President Obama today is — what else? — fundraising again.
But while he’s out, Gallup released a seriously ominous poll for the Democrat’s chances of keeping his extended family in the White House for four more years.
Gallup finds a deep crack in Obama support emerging among whites, still statistically by far the largest group of voters. His support among several white subgroups is down 5% now among registered voters from what it was just before the 2008 election, when he easily defeated John McCain.
These sub-sets of non-Hispanic whites include young registered voters between 18 and 29, which provided him a huge margin four years ago, well-educated women and non-religious whites, among others. Other research has shown huge percentages of Obama’s money donors from 2008 withholding their money this time.
Obama’s support among registered voters today is 46%, five points below what it was nearly four years ago. Whites’ support is down slightly more, six points, from 44% to 38%.
Obama’s support among blacks, while still overwhelming, has also dipped four points from 91% to 87%.
So is it up anywhere?
UPDATE: Related thoughts: “One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll.”
Good observation, kid. Don’t get cocky.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Jeff Dobbs is deeply troubled:
I now am casting a leery eye on my North Carolina neighbors and co-workers and fellow congregants. People I pass on the street, persons in vehicles driving next to me. In the supermarket, at the movies, in restaurants, at the mall. And Lord knows the bars. Especially in the bars.
If it hadn’t been pounded so relentlessly in the media for four years now I wouldn’t believe it.
I still have trouble believing it. These people kept it so well hidden up to this point. It’s frightening.
But I know the media would never lie to me, so the only available conclusion is that 1 in 5 black North Carolinians oppose Obama because they’re racists, straight up.
A chilling realization.
SAN DIEGO PASSES PENSION REFORM by a wide margin.
Likewise in San Jose.
UPDATE: David Harsanyi: Not just Wisconsin: California portends bad news for public-sector unions.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Ride Right Through Them, They’re Demoralized as Hell. “I’m watching Morning Joe and I see Chuck Todd making excuses for the democrats and watching Mika go on about the exit polls supporting Obama’s strength in Wisconsin. . . . Watching the exercise of denial reminds me of the very first time I used the phrase: January 20th 2010.”
Further thoughts here: “I can’t help but be pleased to see the Democrats so deep in denial, but I suggest that it has really been the right and conservatives who have been in denial the most over the past year. In our case, however, it’s been denial of our successes.” Don’t get cocky, kid.
On the other hand, a journalist-reader who asks anonymity writes: “Over at memeorandum.com the AP, NYT and WaPo heds all say ‘Walker survives’ … I dunno, 53-46 sounds more like ‘Walker spanks.’”
FOX CALLS WISCONSIN WINS FOR GOV. WALKER, LT. GOV. KLEEFISCH.
UPDATE: CNN calls it for Walker.
ANOTHER UPDATE: NBC calls it for Walker. Larry O’Donnell is blaming it all on Citizens United. I suppose that’ll be tomorrow’s excuse. But the truth is, the unions brought all their big guns and it wasn’t enough. I guess you just can’t get good goons these days. And remember, this is just the latest in a series of defeats:
When the street protests didn’t work out, the public employee unions decided to make a “nonpartisan” judicial election a referendum over Wisconsin’s anti-union legislation.
The Service Employees International Union and other labor groups went all in on the election, but still lost. A pointless recount failed even to narrow the margin significantly.
Bottom line: All the might of the public employee unions wasn’t even able to swing a nonpartisan, off-year, judicial election. Can you say “paper tiger”?
Yes, we can.
And reader Christopher Mazur writes: “Today is the first day of November.”
Don’t get cocky, kid.
On the other hand, this is another Tea Party I-Told-You-So.
MORE STILL: Wisconsin: Stalingrad of the Left?
Well, Russ Feingold said it’s not over till we win, which is kinda like the German position in Stalingrad. . . . But comparing one’s opponents to Hitler is right out. Right, Russ? Oh, never mind. . . .
THE LAST WORD: Bwahahahahaha! “Republicans also appear to have taken all four senate seats by massive margins.”
JOEL GEHRKE: Middle-class leans Romney in make or break moment. Don’t get cocky, kid.
DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Intrade Has Walker’s Chances over 90%; NY Times in Panic Mode.
No, really, don’t get cocky. If you’re in Wisconsin, vote tomorrow.
WISCONSIN: “Walker leads Barrett 52% to 45% in new Marquette Law School poll.” Plus: “So on main issues that fired the protests last year, the people clearly support Walker.”
Don’t get cocky, kid.
POLL: Oh my: Walker 54, Barrett 42 in Wisconsin. Don’t get cocky, kid.
Don’t get cocky, kid.
STEVEN HAYWARD: Let’s Call Them “Hydrocarbon Deniers.” “Thus we can say that Saudi Arabia is the America of oil, except that we have more than they do. Maybe we should start exporting oil to China and join OPEC?” Don’t get cocky, kid.
IS ROMNEY PULLING AWAY? As the Professor and a certain Corellian smuggler (who runs out for Barney Kessel records or something) are both wont to say, don’t get cocky.
“DON’T GET COCKY” vs. “Ride The Wave.” Both have their place.
A REPORT FROM DAY 3 OF THE OBAMACARE ARGUMENTS, where the focus was on severability. Seems to me they should just knock down the whole thing and let Congress do whatever it wants next. If that turns out to be inconvenient, well, there’s a good reason not to pass unconstitutional legislation, isn’t it?
UPDATE: A “severability trainwreck?” Don’t get cocky.
Plus, sense and severability.
ASSOCIATED PRESS: ObamaCare Has Disastrous Day In Court. “The fate of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul was cast into deeper jeopardy Tuesday as the Supreme Court’s conservative justices sharply and repeatedly questioned its core requirement that virtually every American carry insurance. The court will now take up whether any remnant of the historic law can survive if that linchpin fails.”
Well, who trusts the AP anymore? But here’s a summary of the arguments by Hans van Spakovsky.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Audio: Scalia lectures Verrilli on enumerated powers. You know, this is beginning to remind me of the Lopez argument. In that case, most observers thought the key point was when Solicitor General Drew S. Days III couldn’t advance any sort of limiting principle with regard to the government’s commerce power. That’s very much like what happened here. Could the non-infinity principle apply again?
Heck, even Mother Jones is calling it a “disaster.” “Solicitor General Donald B. Verrilli Jr. should be grateful to the Supreme Court for refusing to allow cameras in the courtroom, because his defense of Obamacare on Tuesday may go down as one of the most spectacular flameouts in the history of the court.” Ouch. From Mother Jones?
MORE: Jeffrey Toobin: “This was a train wreck for the Obama administration. . . . This law looks like it’s going to be struck down.” With commentary like that from the left, well . . . .
How bad is it? Did the Solicitor General take a dive? If I were him, I’d encourage that take.
STILL MORE: How bad is it? The Justices handed him one of these when the argument was over. . . .
But another reader emails: “After the seemingly wonderful news of today’s Supreme Court proceedings, it seems an apt time for one your ‘Don’t Get Cocky’ Warnings. Just sayin’.” Good point. And, actually, although I think the Court ought to knock the whole thing down and tell Congress to try again (or better yet, not) I actually think that Obama would be better off losing here in terms of November. ObamaCare is wildly unpopular and will be a drag on him and all the Democrats. If the Court kills it, it won’t get any more popular, but the unpopularity will be less . . . urgent. And Obama can tell his base that he tried, and that if they want to win on this they need to reelect him so he can appoint new Supreme Court Justices.
Meanwhile, reader John Steakley writes: “With expectations set this low by the left, almost any ruling can be called a ‘victory’ of some sort for the Obama Administration. Hey . . . wait a second . . .”
EVEN MORE: On the other hand, there’s this.
Y2KYOTO: I’ll Miss the Polar Ice Caps.
RELATED: At the London Telegraph, James Delingpole writes, “Ha ha Warmist losers. For you the war is over:”
One of my resolutions this year is to write as little as possible about global warming. Not only will it make my wife much happier but it will also free me up to talk about more important things such as monetary collapse, hyperinflation and the imminent end of Western civilisation. Oh and also there’s hardly much need for my input on climate change any more. That’s because, basically, my side has won.
As the Insta-Professor likes to say, don’t get cocky.
HAS AMERICA REACHED A TEA PARTY TIPPING POINT? “Yes, there is a long, long way to go. But the idea that America doesn’t, in fact, have to be governed for eternity as a debtor nation with a mammoth, out-of-control, ever-expanding government is winning the day. It is tipping the balance with increasing decisiveness against an idea that has become so much a part of conventional wisdom that even some conservatives, startlingly including, inexplicably, the Wall Street Journal, have displayed the wobblies at the thought of confronting the Leviathan.”
He’s also right to note the role played by Mark Levin’s Liberty And Tyranny.
UPDATE: Don’t get cocky. Always good advice!
Remember a few weeks ago when President Obama reportedly said to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor: “Eric, don’t call my bluff”? Lots of commentators said that this was a “tell”–that by referring to “my bluff,” Obama was admitting he was bluffing.
Actually, his play was even worse than that. A bluff is a pretense. The bluffer knows he has a weak hand but bets as if he has a strong one in order to induce his opponents to fold. Obama had a weak hand but thought he had a strong one. His next words to Cantor, according to Politico, were a vow to “take his case ‘to the American people.’ ” He actually believed–for all we know, he still believes–all that World’s Greatest Orator nonsense.
Thus he ended up maximizing his losses.
Regardless of what you think about the deal, this has been a debacle for Obama personally. He’s looked weak but petulant, disengaged but inept, and his polls have plummeted. This debacle isn’t, by itself, the end of Obama’s re-election prospects, but he’s doing to himself in one term what Democrats needed two terms to do to Bush — stage a long, slow attrition of credibility, likeability, and follower loyalty.
Speaking on the House floor Saturday, Politico reports, silly Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi invoked “Star Wars,” declaring that Boehner “chose to go to the dark side.” The Tea Partiers could do worse than to follow a bit of counsel from that classic movie: “Great, kid. Don’t get cocky.”
Always good advice, but it won’t be hard to follow here.
IS YOUR ROTH IRA SAFE? Don’t Get Cocky.
TAILSPIN: Obama’s numbers on economy reach new low in NBC/WSJ poll.
At Commentary, Peter Wehner adds:
If a year from now the economy is more or less in the same condition as it was two years ago, last year, and what it is now—Obama will be the easiest incumbent to beat since 1980. It’s not impossible for Republicans to lose such an election, but it would be mighty hard.
To coin a phrase, don’t get cocky. If anybody can blow a major election, it’s the GOP.
RELATED: “Bin Laden Coup Won’t Help Obama in Budget Fight,” Byron York writes.
REASON TV: Reaction to Bin Laden’s Death.
UPDATE: Mickey Kaus: “It’s easy to overestimate the significance of Osama’s demise: Remember when we thought finding Saddam would turn the tide in Iraq?” Well, we’ll see.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Afghans warn: “The killing of Osama should not be seen as mission accomplished.” Plus this: “The fight against terrorism is in its sanctuaries, in its training camps and its finance centers, not in Afghanistan and today it has been proved we were right.”
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: More celebration video.
On the other hand, Hamas is not so happy. “We regard this as a continuation of the American policy based on oppression and the shedding of Muslim and Arab blood.” Well, cry me a river.
MORE: Rand Simberg: Don’t Get Cocky. Always good advice. But, from the comments:
I do think this should put to rest one of the enduring myths of our time — a myth which was partly responsible for 9/11, in fact. That’s the idea that democracies can’t stomach a long struggle.
This shows that even with severe domestic divisions, economic problems, etc., the United States could stay the course and nail this bastard. Maybe, just maybe, the next wanna-be warlord will take notice.
You can’t scare us into submission with a devastating strike, and you can’t wear us down, either.
It’ll be interesting to see if this causes Khaddafy to step down. When Saddam was captured, he responded by turning his nuclear materials over. Will the death of Osama have a similar effect? Or his back too close to the wall now?
UPDATE: Don Surber emails: “Great kid. Don’t get cocky.” Indeed.
RON FUTRELL: Where Are The Stories On The Death Of The Democratic Party? Don’t get cocky.
PAUL MIRENGOFF TO OBAMACARE OPPONENTS: Don’t Get Cocky.
SUPPORT FOR THE “REPEAL AMENDMENT” FROM MARK LEVIN.
Meanwhile, Dahlia Lithwick and Jeff Sesol recycle Dana Milbank’s dumb criticism: “For a party (whether of the Tea or Grand Old variety) that sees the Constitution as something so perfect as to have been divinely inspired, the idea that it needs to be altered fundamentally is beyond crediting, something like putting the Fifth Commandment up to a popular referendum.” My comments on Milbank’s deep, deep misunderstanding of things would seem to apply equally here. Is it just me, or do the lefty critics just seem to be phoning it in lately?
My own take is akin to Ilya Somin’s — if a genie let me choose just one amendment to the Constitution, I don’t think this would be the one I’d pick. But the criticism of the proposal is so amazingly ignorant that I find myself warming to it despite myself.
Also, from Ann Althouse — who, like me, Somin, and Barnett, but unlike Milbank, Lithwick or Shelso, is actually a professor of Constitutional Law — “Since the Repeal Amendment, proposed by Randy Barnett, can easily be portrayed as an effort to return to something closer to the balance of power provided for in the original Constitution, it is pretty silly to portray yourself as brimming with respect for the Founders when what you really support is the shift of power to the national government that occurred over the long stretch of time, a shift that the courts have allowed to take place.” Judicial reinterpretation is okay, because in recent decades it has accorded with the policy preferences of the Gentry Class.
UPDATE: Reader Matt Tanner emails:
You ask: “Is it just me, or do the lefty critics just seem to be phoning it in lately?”
No, it’s not just you.
Maybe somewhere deep down they recognize the hollowness of their own positions; maybe they’re frustrated by their inability to accomplish anything of value with two years of Obama in the White House and substantial majorities in both houses of Congress; and/or maybe they’re dispirited because their lefty-majority festival has been ended by the American people even before it got warmed up.
Someone the other day (I wish I could remember who) noted the link between seemingly disparate events: the Heller gun rights decision and the deficit reduction commission report. In both instances, an idea not so long ago viewed as fringe — that the Second Amendment secures personal rights, and that the size and cost of the federal government is simply unsustainable (and can’t realistically be fixed on the tax side) — is now viewed as not only respectable, but correct.
Then I read George Will’s latest (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/03/AR2010120304467.html?hpid=opinionsbox1) on the difference between judicial activism and judicial engagement, and how the latter may impact the claim of authorization under the Commerce Clause for the mandate in Obamacare.
If you’re in a “phone it in” mode, it’s easy enough to justify the mandate as consistent with the Commerce Clause, as the Virginia district judge did just last week. But if you’re awake and engaged, it’s not so hard to see that if the Commerce Clause is made infinitely elastic, then our constitutional system has been quietly trashed; and that if you’re going to identify a line that can’t be crossed, this is a pretty good opportunity to pencil it in.
So of course we mustn’t get cocky, but by all means let’s let the left continue to phone it in, while our side works to demonstrate that fidelity to the founders’ vision is both legitimate and healthy.
Is it too much to ask that before they snark at people for constitutional ignorance, they spend a little time reading and thinking about the Constitution themselves? Apparently, yes.
DON’T GET COCKY: Byron York: Obama’s Poll Numbers Point To His Defeat in 2012.
LARRY SABATO: Don’t Get Cocky.
WELL, IT’S CERTAINLY PINING FOR THE FJORDS: “Krauthammer: ‘Obama Agenda is Dead.’”
Though to borrow a popular expression ’round these parts, don’t get cocky.
Meanwhile, a “Rough night for the Tea Party Express.”
KEEPING HOPE ALIVE: Nate Silver: 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat The Polls And Hold The House. Plus reason number six, left unmentioned: Rampant fraud. Like I’ve been saying, don’t get cocky. Just vote.
GALLUP: Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday. Don’t get cocky.
DON’T GET COCKY. No, really, I mean that. Just sayin’ . . ..
MAC OWNERS, DON’T GET COCKY: New Java trojan attacks Mac OS X via social networking sites. Possibly not that major, but a reminder that Macs aren’t invulnerable, and that you need to exercise reasonable care in what you click on regardless of platform.
TRIFECTA: DON’T GET COCKY.
DON’T GET COCKY. “The high-fiving and celebrating has been going on in conservative circles since early summer, at least. But there’s only one thing – they’re still planning to hold an election on November 2; some states have begun already.”
MORE ON-THE-GROUND ELECTION COVERAGE From DaTechGuy. From the video:
Me: What would you like to say to those people not only in this country but all across the country republicans and conservatives who are thinking: “It’s looking good and we can ease off a little?
Hughey Woodring: Get out and volunteer and get the word out!
Me: Is there any other way to win an election without working just right till the end?
He’s right. Don’t get cocky. Much more at the link.
THINGS YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED THIS WEEKEND:
Congressman hits reporter, lies about it.
The Glenn & Helen Show, slight return.
Latinos supporting the Tea Party.
A new song from Anne McKinney.
No, really, don’t get cocky.
Only you can prevent bacon abuse.
Standing up against historical ignorance.
Law professors clinging to their guns. But not bitterly!
The coming Middle-Class Anarchy.
WHEN YOU SEE Massachusetts Democrats positioning themselves as “outsiders” and omitting even the fact that they’re incumbents, what does it say about the political climate?
Still, don’t get cocky.
MESSAGE TO MIKE HUCKABEE: Don’t Get Cocky. Indeed.
THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY AS Mass Extinction Event for Democrats? Haven’t I been saying “don’t get cocky?” I believe that I have.
READER JOHN MACDONALD WARNS TEA PARTIERS NOT TO GET COCKY:
Never underestimate the opposition , the polls haven’t closed. military ballots AWOL, the union/ACORN ground team has lots of experience GOTV..the dirty tricks will increase in intensity…and MSM will put out early polling results during Election day to try to derpess the GOP voters- ..and the candidates leading slightly need even more to win- at least 3-5% above the fraud factor- Remember Franken.So it’s all hands on deck for the next couple of weeks. Focus on the fact that the major legislation has already been passed to make the U.S. into a socialist country. The ideologues will continue their path unless they lose handily on Nov 2…and that means getting your family and friends and their friends to the voting booths.
I keep saying it, too. Don’t get cocky. It’s not over yet, and it won’t be over on November 3.
ANDREW BREITBART: O’Keefe Owes His Supporters an Explanation. I think early success made him cocky. Don’t get cocky, kid.
DA TECH GUY: Hey, GOP! Fortune Favors The Bold! There’s a fine line between Toujours, L’Audace! and “Don’t Get Cocky!” The difference is whether you’re still giving 100%. As Da Tech Guy says, “You only get one shot. Don’t blow it.”
WHEN I SAY “DON’T GET COCKY,” I’m apparently not getting through to Dick Morris, who seems quite cocky indeed.
UPDATE: More cockiness. Remember, predictions of victory aren’t a substitute for hard work. But there’s this:
Can you imagine with all the ethical vulnerabilities you have been showing about Schumer – not to mention that he’s more a symbol of this Congress than anyone and he’s got pretty unimpressive numbers – the GOP is not even mounting a campaign against him?
I saw the Conservative Party candidate (Jay Townsend) running against Schumer on Sean Hannity’s TV show last summer. So here is a nice-looking guy who speaks well and he’s funny. And he turns out be a political strategist, so he doesn’t make dumb mistakes.
So why aren’t we behind him I’m asking?
I wouldn’t miss Schumer.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Adam Kwiatkowski emails:
In less than 18 months, the Tea Party went from being ignored, to ridiculed, to fought with every weapon in the left’s arsenal. And then this week the President of the United States – the Tea Party’s nemesis – concedes that the Tea Party has some legitimate concerns. Then Thomas Friedman, dean of the dim-bulb center-left beltway conventional wisdom crowd, decides that he and those who agree with him are the true Tea Party, and those charlatans masquerading as the Tea Party are just “blowing off steam.” Thomas Mother-Loving Friedman, of all people, wants the Tea Party label.
A remarkable week, and a remarkable eighteen months.
Well, good point. But don’t take your eyes off those TIE fighters, kid.
MORE: No, really, don’t get cocky.
STILL MORE: Jim Treacher sums things up.
WOW: Rasmussen: West Virginia Senate: Raese (R) Eases Ahead of Manchin (D). “Manchin, despite his popularity with voters in the state, faces an electorate that is even unhappier with the national Democratic agenda than voters in most other parts of the country.”
UPDATE: Connecticut Senate Race Moves to the Margin of Error. Democrat’s Lead Cut to 3 points in Q-Poll. “Mr. Blumenthal will feel a particular dismay at one Q-Poll finding: His favorable rating among likely Connecticut voters continues to erode, descending to 51%, down another 4 points in two weeks. His unfavorable rating is at 41%, a chilling change for the man who was long enjoyed being the state’s most popular politician.” Maybe Blumenthal’s lies about Vietnam service are starting to register. Or maybe it’s just contagion from the Obama Administration’s unpopularity.
Meanwhile, Moe Lane wonders who the DSCC will abandon to “firewall” Connecticut?
ANOTHER UPDATE: Don Surber: “Barack Obama is the Official Albatross of the 2010 American Election. . . . From Safe Democrat — no way Joe Manchin can lose — in July to biting nails 5 weeks away from an election that is looking redder by the hour.”
MORE: Connecticut reader Mike Latina says it’s not the Vietnam stuff:
The Vietnam stuff has faded into the background. The real surprise is that she’s beating him (in liberal CT!!) on the issues. She’s hammering him with one negative and one positive ad right now which have been very effective. The negative one calls the Cap n Trade bill “Dick Blumenthal’s Energy Tax” and says that residents’ electricity and gasoline bills will go up ($968/yr and $0.68/gallon, respectively.) The positive one uses stock footage of JFK from 1961 expounding on the virtues of tax cuts to grow the economy. It ends with an old story board that says something to the effect of: “good idea then, even better idea now” followed by, “I’m Linda McMahon and I approved this message.” Don’t know if she can pull it off, but it’s going to be very close. Made sure my son got his absentee ballot at school.
Stay tuned. But don’t get cocky!
DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats Gaining Steam?
POLITICO: Democrats Fear A Midwestern Meltdown. “From Ohio to Iowa, there’s a yawning stretch of heartland states whose citizens voted for Obama and congressional Democrats in 2008, but who have lost patience waiting for an as-yet undelivered economic revival that was first promised in 2006, and then two years later. Now, they look set to stampede toward the out-of-power party.”
Don’t get cocky, Republicans. They’re just raising expectations. . . .
RUBIO solidifies his lead in Florida. Don’t get cocky.
DON’T GET COCKY: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
NOT GETTING COCKY: GOP insiders skeptical of landslide predictions.
In recent days, talk of a GOP edge has turned into talk of a GOP blowout. Prognosticators have upgraded the coming political storm from Category 4 to Category 5. Republican control of the House has gone from possible to inevitable.
But Republicans don’t believe it, or at least the insiders involved in the midterm effort don’t believe it. As they see it, they’re in a good position to pick up the 39 seats needed to win control of the House, but polls showing a huge GOP lead are simply wrong.
Republicans don’t deserve to be cocky, and they can’t afford to be slack.
HMM: Major Democratic Donors Shift Donations To The Right. “Employees of 126 businesses that had donated money to Senate Democrats in the 2008 campaign have switched all or most of their 2010 contributions to the Republicans, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission reports by the Houston Chronicle.”
Don’t get cocky, kid.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Related item here.
IS THE GRAND DESIGN WITHIN OUR GRASP?
Don’t get cocky, kids. I’m with J.B.S. Haldane: “Now my own suspicion is that the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.”
In 1994, nobody — and I mean nobody — saw the landslide coming. I remember political pundits and newscasters stunned with disbelief as the results drifted in from across the country that Tuesday night. Given the widespread expectations of a Democratic drubbing, this November differs greatly from its 1994 counterpart.
Another difference is that the GOP in 1994 were offering voters a clear alternative to the ruling party. Their 10-part “Contract with America” offered a palpable idea of exactly how the party planned to rule differently from the Democrats. I’ve yet to see any clear, coherent message that details how the Republicans plan to lead if they do take control of Congress in November. The GOP still appear rudderless — despite perfect conditions for a cogent message of austerity and limited government to emerge.
HMM: Gallup: Why likely-voter models may be undercounting Republicans. Whatever. Don’t get cocky, kid.
POLLING: Bad news for Democrats: Ohio voters long for Bush. Yeah, with every passing day the Bush Era is looking more and more like a golden age . . . .
UPDATE: A reader sends this “Don’t Get Cocky” advice. It’s worth reading.
A Plea From A Moderate Republican
The chest-thumping that is prevalent today among conservative pundits is justified by polling data that seems to spell doom for the Democrats in November. Still, I can’t help but feel like I’m having déjà vu. And you know what they say about those who don’t learn from history.
In the last few years of the Bush administration, the President’s poll numbers crept ever downward. Democrats in politics and the press rejoiced that Americans were finally “waking up” to the fact that they had been right about Bushitler all along. They boasted loud and often that Republicans were losing the country because of their unpopular decisions to go to war in Iraq, establish new national security protocols, lobby for Social Security reform, stress border security, etc. Liberals started at the ideological position that those policies were immoral (if not illegal), and when Bush’s poll numbers dropped, they inferred causality. It never occurred to them that Bush’s poll numbers were dropping because many on the right didn’t think his policies went far enough. Conservatives wanted him to put more emphasis on border security, not less; they wanted to see a more aggressive approach to entitlement reform, not a Medicare prescription boondoggle; they wanted a comprehensive immigration solution that started with border security first, not blanket amnesty. The list could go on. The left, especially liberal journalists, just assumed that their criticisms of the right were being validated by the greater populace with each and every poll. It was wrong at the time, and it’s the main reason that so many of them today can’t understand what happened to their “mandate.”
Conservatives are making the same mistakes right now.
Obama’s poll numbers are dropping and more people than ever are self-identifying as Republicans. Naturally, conservatives believe this means that the public has finally “woken up” and decided that Obama and the Democrats are closet socialists hell-bent on “eroding the bedrock of American prosperity.” They started at the ideological position that the stimulus was a mistake, that health care reform was an overreach, , that the auto industry bailouts were a disaster, that we have to win in Afghanistan at all costs, etc. Every time Obama’s approval rating drops another point, they infer validation that more and more people are seeing the light. It doesn’t occur to them that his poll number are (among other reasons) dropping because liberals are angry that Obama/Reid/Pelosi haven’t worked harder to advance the progressive agenda. Liberals disapprove of the fact that that Obama settled for Obamacare instead of embracing a true, single-payer system; because they watered down financial oversight instead of going for the corporate jugular; because they escalated the war in Afghanistan instead of forcing the new government to sink or swim on its own. The list could go on.
You’re probably asking, “What about independents identifying as Republican? That’s true validation, right?” My answer would be, where else are Independents supposed to go? Their affiliation shift is a protest, and a fickle one at that. Right now, people are unhappy with the present course, specifically when it comes to national fiscal policy. If Republicans make great gains in the November elections, which it seems like they will, they need to govern with perspective and humility. If they mistake their electoral success for a “mandate” to challenge social norms, they’ll be swept out of office again soon. Ironically, the loss of independents from the Republican coalition over the next couple of years would probably provide the boost Obama needs to win reelection in 2012.
If in two years, conservatives are scratching their heads and saying, “What happened to our movement,” they’ll have only themselves to blame.
Humility and perspective are the most underrated commodities in modern politics. Just because people are trending Republican at the moment, it doesn’t mean that they’re particularly conservative. Every time I read a story about how the conservative death knell was greatly exaggerated in 2006 and 2008, or how independents are finally coming back into the conservative fold, I feel like there’s no doubt the right will screw this up again. Conservatism isn’t really back in vogue. Anti-incumbency is. And it will be again when the Republicans are back in charge. You know, déjà vu and all that.
Yes, the polls are proof that the public doesn’t like what Obama and the Congressional Democrats are doing. It would be a grave mistake to interpret it as love for the Republicans. That love must be earned, if it is to exist at all.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Jeff Techentin writes:
I don’t disagree with the empirical points your reader makes. However, the danger for Republicans is the same as it always has been: that in office, they begin to act indistinguishably from Democrats. Thus I think this election cycle presents a unique opportunity, one where Republicans could elect a number of representatives who pay more than lipservice to limited government, who believe that the notion of restoring power to the people who have ceded it to the government is a meaningful one, and who are unwilling to “give to get” with other people’s money. There isn’t just a groundswell against what Obama and the congressional Democrats have done, there’s a growing sense that we have to change the way things are done from the bottom up.
Electing folks who’ve been baptized in the tea party movement is the only way for the GOP to sustain itself as a political party. If the “job” our Congress is to perform is to dole out goodies to the public, you might as well hire Democrats to do it, since they’ll do with with élan and panache. Why bother having a GOP at all, when its only role is to be the one to complain petulantly about the particularities of the largesse? Democrats can do that just fine, too.
Better to have a real alternative, a group that would be devoted to allowing people to pursue their own happiness rather than living on the indulgences of their neighbors, and to enjoy that happiness once they’ve achieved it. Will it sustain a majority beyond this election cycle? I can’t begin to predict. But I’d like to see it try.
And reader David Gulliver comments:
The primary difference between 2006 and 2010 is that more Americans self identify as “conservative” than “liberal” and have for many years. It is not about party. It is about philosophy. I believe 2006 was correctly the result of conservatives giving up on the Republican Party. However, I do not think for a moment that 2010 will be about liberals giving up on the Democratic Party.
Go back to 1994: the Clintons and the Democratic Congress were moving full steam with a liberal agenda. Conservatives, not Republicans, revolted. Clinton triangulated and spent his final 6 years as a moderate. There was no mass defection of the liberal base from the Democratic Party. The most absolutely disenfranchised liberals who voted for Nader were a small percentage of the vote – granted, it was enough to make Bush v Gore happen, but that 5% of fringe voters exists almost every election year and was more a reflection of Bush and Gore themselves than of the conservative vs liberal split.
The reality is that America wants conservatives – and Republicans will win or lose based on how well they fill that role.
Stay tuned. And reader George Bednekoff emails:
I believe that the federal system allows Americans across the political spectrum to get along in a politically diverse country, but only if the size and role of government is relatively small at the national level. With more government functions at the state and local level, voters in different regions can agree to disagree. As an example, Massachusetts chose to have lots of government intervention in their medical insurance market and their choice has very little impact on my life in Texas. However, expand similar government intervention in health insurance to the national level, Obamacare, and political debate is elevated to 1850s level of divisiveness. A Republican congressional majority could help turn down the heat of American politics if they resist the urge to make a federal case of everything. They need to learn from their mistakes in the Terri Schiavo case, No Child Left Behind, TSA stupidity, the TARP bailout slush fund, and reckless earmarking.
MORE: Reader Michael Kennedy writes:
Glenn, one short comment. A lot of us over the years thought that, if the country ever actually got a taste of what leftist rule was like, it would scare the wits out of them. The trouble was that nobody would run such a risk in spite of the grumbling about RINOs and all. Then, it happened !
We were right. Now, maybe we can keep the GOP honest with tea party people on the local committees.
DON’T GET COCKY, KID. Gallup: GOP Takes 10-Point Lead In Generic Ballot.
MICHAEL BARONE: Redistricting could prolong the Democrats’ pain.
Eighteen months ago it looked like Democrats were going to profit from redistricting. . . . But that scenario now is the stuff of dreams. Democrats are threatened with losing many governorships and legislative chambers, and their chances of taking over many from the Republicans look dismal.
Instead, the optimistic scenario belongs to the Republicans. If they hold what they have and capture a few governorships (Ohio, Tennessee, Wisconsin) and a few legislative chambers (the Houses in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania and both houses in Wisconsin), they will control redistricting in 11 states with more than five House seats, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Those states are projected to have 178 House seats.
This would be an even better redistricting cycle for Republicans than the one following the 2000 census, which was their best in 50 years. It could move one to two dozen House seats into the Republican column.
Well, stay tuned. And don’t get cocky.