WOW:

Polls show the president is tied or slightly behind in New Jersey and trailing Senator Kerry by only some six to eight percentage points In New York. GOP Governor George Pataki introduced the president at a reception with 1,000 people by saying, “Welcome back, Mr. President, to the swing state of New York.”

It’s really hard for me to believe that Bush is doing as well, and Kerry as badly, as these state polls seem to suggest.