April 28, 2004

A CAUTIONARY NOTE: Kerry’s various gaffes have got Bush supporters feeling pretty good this week. But I don’t think that the Kerry campaign’s misfortunes will continue forever, and the Bush people need to recognize that his campaign has its own issues. He’s entirely capable of losing this election, despite all the help he’s currently getting from the Kerry campaign’s screwups.

In particular, I still think that they should get rid of Cheney in favor of Condi Rice. Cheney’s contribution to the ticket the first time around was (as we heard over and over again) gravitas. Bush doesn’t need him for that now. Cheney also has a lot of baggage, which Bush also doesn’t need. And his role in the Administration is open to question — I’ve recently spoken to a couple of current and former Administration folks, with no particular axes to grind, who think that Cheney’s doing considerably more harm than good.

Of course, if they were planning a move like that, it would be smart to wait until later to announce it. . . .

UPDATE: On the other hand, Daniel Drezner has a piece in TNR that explains Kerry’s problems well: “The problem is not that Bush is unbeatable; the problem is that he seems unbeatable when compared to Kerry.”

I think he’s onto something in his analysis, which isn’t as snarky as that sentence standing alone makes it sound.