May 26, 2002
STRATEGYPAGE says that a Pakistani-Indian nuclear war will be hard to avoid.
Here’s a thought — I don’t know if it’s right or not. But it occurs to me that while the United States is busy doing its (probably inadequate) best to prevent a nuclear war there, it’s much of the rest of the world that has the most to lose.
The United States’ nuclear power is a huge military ace that it can’t really play, mostly for diplomatic reasons. But if there’s a nuclear war between two more-or-less Third World countries (Pakistan more, India less) will that lower the threshhold? If I were, say, an Iraqi, or a Saudi, or for that matter a French diplomat, this would worry me.
If I were Israel, on the other hand, I might see some value in the loosening of nuclear restraints. I wonder if anyone’s thinking about this sort of diplomatic repercussion?