PUTIN GETS CAUGHT IN HIS OWN TRAP: The war in Ukraine and shifts in energy markets have put the Russian leader in a bind. “The global energy game is changing—and it is not changing in Moscow’s favor. Shale, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewables—three areas where Russia is extremely weak—are ascendant and are dramatically altering the market. The potential for ending sanctions on Iran puts a powerful new player and competitor —the world’s third-largest natural-gas producer—in the game. And the Ukraine conflict and Moscow’s aggressive posture toward the West have led Europe—Russia’s most important market—to change its energy policies and seek alternative suppliers. Moreover, rather than looking the other way as the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom repeatedly flouted the European Union’s antitrust laws, Brussels is now cracking down. If one looks at Gazprom as a barometer of Russia’s fortunes, one statistic says it all: In 2008, the company had a market value of $360 billion; today it is worth just $55 billion.”

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