MICHAEL BARONE: Thoughts On The Texas Primary Results.

There’s an obvious trend here, then-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison challenged Gov. Rick Perry, but with no serious contest this year for governor (and not much of a contest for senator), Republican turnout stayed up and, despite the national hoopla for Davis, Democratic turnout declined somewhat rather than surged. Looking further back, Democratic turnout spiked in 2002 when Laredo banker Tony Sanchez ran a self-financed campaign that brought many Hispanics to the polls; in 1994 and earlier years, Democratic turnout was consistently about twice as high as Republican turnout and five times as high in 1982. What I think is happening is that up through 1994, many voters chose Democratic ballots, because Democrats won most down-ballot offices and state legislative seats and were at least competitive in governor and senator contests. If you wanted to affect the outcome, you voted Democratic. Republicans’ increasing success — they now hold all the down-ballot offices and significant majorities in both houses of the legislature — means that nowadays if you want to affect the outcome, you vote Republican. So the Republican turnout edge in 2010 and 2014 substantially overstates Republican strength in general elections; in the six contests for president, governor and senator starting in 2008, Texas has voted between 54- and 58-percent Republican.

Hmm.