December 20, 2013

PHILIP KLEIN: Obamacare ‘death spiral’ scenario is about the states, stupid. “What’s been largely lost in the ongoing discussion about whether a death spiral can happen is that there isn’t one Obamacare ‘risk pool’ and thus, there isn’t one potential ‘death spiral.’ In reality, there are 51 different risk pools (for each state plus the District of Columbia), which means 51 chances to get things right, as well as 51 possible death spirals. It’s perfectly possible that come March 31 – the current end of the open enrollment period – evidence will show a bit of both. That is, some exchanges may be viable, and some may find themselves in deep trouble. This could not only have implications for the 2014 elections, but it could affect how both parties approach health care policy.”