September 5, 2012
A REMINDER FROM GALLUP: August Unemployment Not Looking Good. And notice this: “More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data. Further, Gallup’s data show the labor force participation rate to be increasing in August. In turn, that could have an additional negative impact on the unemployment rate for August if the government’s data show a similar pattern.”
So if there was no seasonal adjustment last year, why would there be any seasonal adjustment this year? Same season, right? It’ll be interesting to see what comes out on Friday.