September 3, 2012
PAUL RAHE: Another Straw In the Wind:
A few days ago, I drew attention to a Gallup poll indicating that, for the first time in the last twenty years, Americans thought better of the Republican Party than of the Democrats. Later that same day, I pointed to a Pew Foundation poll reaffirming the drift towards the Republicans. Today, I came across further evidence pointing even more emphatically at the same conclusion.
For ten years now, Rasmussen has been studying partisan trends. Its latest survey indicates that, for the first time in that period, more Americans self-identify as Republicans than as Democrats. To be precise, 37.6% now think of themselves as Republicans — more than in September, 2004 — and only 33.3% self-identify as Democrats. What makes this especially interesting is that two years ago — on the eve of the Republican blowout in the 2010 midterm elections — 35% self-identified as Democrats and only 33.8% self-identified as Republicans.
It is a grave error to suppose that everyone in this country has made up his mind. Things are in motion. The Republicans have an argument and a plan, and the Democrats — thanks to the wisdom of Barack Obama — have nothing to offer.
InTrade still has Obama ahead, but I’m not sure why information like this doesn’t have a bigger impact. Anyway, don’t get cocky . . .