July 28, 2008

POLLS: Now it’s McCain who’s ahead, though by an insignificant margin.

Yesterday the Gallup Tracking Poll showed Obama ahead by 9 points (49-40). Earlier today (Monday) that dropped to Obama ahead by 8 points (48-40). Both were of registered voters.

Now Gallup/USA Today released a new poll of LIKELY voters, showing a 4 point lead for McCain, his first lead in any major poll since early May.

The switch from registered to likely voters explains most of the difference.

Yet this jumping around does not inspire confidence in Gallup.

I suspect that polling this race is even iffier than polling in general.