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June 03, 2008

THE SUN WILL COME OUT, TOMORROW -- at least if the Hillary camp has anything to say about it. What's taken them so long? It's not like they haven't had plenty to work with. Maybe it's all about plausible deniability? But how plausible can it really be? . . .

UPDATE: Reader Yon Lew emails:

It seems to me that Beckel's appearance on Fox this morning with rumors of the Michelle Obama tape is a "trickle up" phenomenon. It could still be a hoax, but Beckel seemed to imply that he had heard enough from sources he trusted to worry him. The web is unparalleled as a democratic means for transmitting information but that allows for the unchecked propagation of rumors and speculation. When public figures with the stature of Beckel take notice that implies that the rumor has survived at least an initial round of filtering.

I am still withholding final judgement as to whether this is a hoax or not, but if it turns out to be true and if Clinton does go on to wrest the nomination from Barack Obama then I wonder what the effect would be if McCain drafted Colin Powell as vice-president. It may well be that angry Obama voters might be persuaded to defect--especially if Clinton is perceived to be the source for the tape.

I don't know if there's any truth to the rumors, but that they're plausible enough that even Obama supporters find them potentially credible is damaging enough to Obama, isn't it?

MORE: Reader Jason Norrett emails: "Who knows if this tape is real. However, what is real is the deep division between Hillary supporters and Obama supporters. Holy cow. I know it is a small sampling, but read the comment section of that NoQuarter blog. Whomever the nominee is, they are in trouble, I think." Well, it depends on how many people are really this mad, whether they're in close states, and whether they get over it. But, yeah. It's ugly. Hillary and Obama have gotten it worse from other Democrats than either will likely get from McCain.

STILL MORE: "Whitey" or "Why'd he?" -- a dispute worthy of Seinfeld, which is perhaps appropriate for a campaign that has largely been about nothing.

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