February 24, 2007
OVER AT MICKEY KAUS'S, an observation:
The truth is Hillary's campaign has been a series of ill-considered moves. Obama panicked her into a way-too-early-announcement. The cause of the panic was fund-raising (poaching of presumed supporters), which is the least vulnerable aspect of her campaign. Basically, if she wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, she wins the nomination. The most she can spend in Iowa and New Hampshire is $20 million, every last dollar counted, including the surrounding states primary television advertising that will be seen in Iowa. So money is not her problem. Imagining that it was and therefore entering the race six-to-eight months before she needed to was a MAJOR mistake. Had she entered in August or September, the surge would have run its course successfully or not. The Iran issue would be that much further along. Pandemic flu would have hit or not hit. Etc. By announcing early, she brought into play a hundred unnecessary variables.
Read the whole thing, and scroll down for some more interesting thoughts. I think that starting the campaign early is a bad idea for a lot of reasons. Aside from considerations like the above, it draws much more heavily on the campaign's most important capital, the candidate. Tired people make mistakes, and the earlier you start, the tireder you're likely to be by the final stages when it really matters. Plus, with a two-year campaign, whoever gets elected will start off already exhausted. And I'm serious about this, not just joking. Being President, especially during difficult times like these, wears people out anyway, and it can only be worse if you start off tired from a two-year campaign.