The main reason we haven’t taken out Sadr is because we haven’t received the green light from Maliki (or his predecessor). And, the reason we haven’t received the green light from Mailiki is because he knows that if he authorizes the assassination or the capture and trial of Al Sadr, he will lose a huge chunk of his base. He’s dealing with Sadr as a nuisance child that needs to be kept in check until he is irrelevant. It’s a gamble. Just like Hezbollah, just like Hamas, just like all of Iran’s proxies, Al Sadr has engaged in a game of brinkmanship. The objective for Iran is to undermine and destabilize without going too far. They play the same game with their nuclear development. And, unfortunately, the more diplomatic elements of world politics fall for it because they are hamstrung by policy and proceedure.
There is another risk in that if Sadr is assassinated or brought to trial, this will further push the foot soldiers of the Mahdi Army in the direction ot terrorism rather than the direction of legitimate participation in the new Democracy. I think that is a valid concern. But, sometimes you have to stir up the hornets before you can finally exterminate the nest and get rid of the problem. My best guess is that Al Sadr will end up being Iraq’s problem, just like Hezbollah has been Lebanon’s problem. Sadr is becomming the Iraqi equivelant of Lebanon’s Nazrallah. All of this is Iran’s very active policy of undermining any stabilizing Democratic developments in their neighborhood.
