By the time this deal was supposedly made, the die was already cast in Basrah. Maybe in 2003 all the way up to 2008 the Brits really were without viable choices in their area of control.
I don’t think that the ‘Surge’ would have worked out nearly so well in 2003-2006. In fact I think it might not have worked at all before it was called off due to very large US casualties. What surprised ALL the people involved in the Surge was the minimal casualties suffered by US troops when they began to take back the neighborhoods in Iraq. By the time the Surge occurred the Iraqis were just about fed-up with the monsters(of all stripes) and just needed someone to say that they were there for the duration and would in fact act to crush the villains.
This in no way minimizes the Surge effects but it was pushing against an open door in many cases. Had it not been the casualties suffered would have been far greater and more in line with the expectations at the time.
Just saying that I’m not convinced that Brits would have been able to root out the Militia in Basrah before the people were ready to be rid of them.
I just don’t know and therefore as venal as this particular deal evidently was, the overall strategy may not have been very different anyway. The Brits until just recently didn’t have the troops or the local support required to kill off the Mehdis and that is what it always going to take. By the time things had changed on the ground the Iraqis themselves had built up the forces required to get the job done.
As they did.
