Breaking things down by demographics is juicy but the important thing is numbers of voters, and trends.
The margin of victory in November 2004 was 3 million.
Per CNN/OpinonResearch poll released Jy 4, NINE MILLION Hillary supporters refused to vote for Obama in November. That’s UP from seven million in early June, when 4 million planned to stay home and 3 million to vote for McCain. Iirc the June figures were in line with exit polls at the later state primaries.
A Quin. poll found only about half as many ‘holdouts’, but a level trend — little or no improvement for BO. That’s about 4.5 million. If even 3 million of those stay home, bingo.
As to new voters replacing those lost, iirc it’s the latest Ras. poll that shows now FEWER people consider themselves Democrats than a few months ago; GOP numbers stayed the same.
According to a WP/ABC poll very recently released, putting Hillary on the ticket would not help: that repels as many people as it attracts. A different poll has been quoted showing O/C ‘jumping’ 8 points against Mc/Romney, but I haven’t seen if other combinations were tried; it might be a Romney factor.
I have cites and links for most of this at turndownobama.com but I’m too tired to back and forth.
