A fourth scenario:
The Army, the Secret Police and the second-ranking apparatchiks (waiting in the wings to have a larger piece of the pie)hijack the grass-roots revolt for themselves by arresting one of their own, Mubarak, staging a kangaroo court and executing him, while declaring themselves as representatives of the “will of the people,” standing for “fundamental change” and “democracy.”
I saw this scenario unfold in the first televised revolution ever, and I’ve witnessed it ever since.
The outcome? The secret police and former apparatchiks metamorphosed into an oligarchy that still rules the country, democratically, at the ballot box.





