A Comment About

Egypt: Three Possible Outcomes

January 29, 2011 - 3:29 pm - by Barry Rubin
spinoneone
2011-01-29 23:02:36

Revolutions do have a nasty habit of feeding on their own, a la France 1789. This could easily happen in Egypt. Mr. Whitaker’s observations are generally valid. Islam is not a “pro-democracy” movement. It supports a theocracy, with the end game a caliphate ruling the world. So, to achieve a democracy in the Muslim world, the new government must first and foremost be secular, i.e., Ataturk’s Turkey from 1923 to 2008. That means the Muslim Brotherhood most definitely will not be on board with the idea. The only way a democracy will come to pass in Egypt will be for the military to send Mubarak off to a cushy retirement in France, establish a firm dictatorship for, say, five years, and then think about moving to real elections for a parliament. The very best the Egyptians can hope for is a situation similar to Russia; the very worst will be a Muslim Brotherhood government. By the way, there are some reports circulating that the security forces have left the Rafah border crossing with Israel and that Hamas fighters are entering Egypt in large numbers. If true that is very bad news.