A Comment About

Egypt: Three Possible Outcomes

January 29, 2011 - 3:29 pm - by Barry Rubin
RogueIV
2011-01-29 22:40:45

To illustrate this for a generation accustomed to getting its exposition with popcorn, this is a “Dark Knight” vs. “Superman” decision. The west must decide whether to take unpalatable preemptive action to undercut the gathering of Islamist power, or allow the Middle-East to mushroom into an undeniable catastrophe before saving the day. Do we do what needs to be done and be hated for it, or do we wait until hundreds of thousands die to jump in and prove that we are the good guy? I realize the reality of the situation is vastly more complicated than this comic metaphor, but sadly, I have little faith that the Obama administration is equipped to deal with it even in these simplified terms.

Unfortunately, I anticipate that Washington will find a third road that involves more artifice than heroism. Granted, time will only tell: perhaps waiting this situation out will result in a positive outcome, and we can strike a tentative understanding of peace with the emergent Islamist regime. That would certainly benefit the president, who would yet again look like a brilliant leader for doing nothing. But the Muslim Brotherhood is not the Nobel committee, and I fear that Mr. Obama’s ersatz leadership will in this case be rewarded with blood.

This is shaping up to be a very bad time to lack a decisive leader.