A Comment About

Egypt: Three Possible Outcomes

January 29, 2011 - 3:29 pm - by Barry Rubin
SSG Christopher Whitaker
2011-01-29 21:51:11

I don’t disagree with you about the hard currency, but an Islamist government is probably not going to care so much about that, reality be damned. After all, I don’t think Khomenei was especially concerned about that, rather he was more concerned about shoring up his power base, maintaining the Islamic Revolution (which is what the Iranian Revolution was) and fighting with Iraq. In addition, I think the Saudis will do what they have always done, which is pay off what appear to be dangerous folks, especially in light of the currently feckless US Administration. Agreed that an Islamist government, in this case the Muslim Brotherhood, would indeed be disinclined to stay bribed, but they probably would in the short-term, and the Saudis aren’t going to look past their own immediate safety. Don’t kid yourself, the Saudi monarchy will protect itself first, last, and always, without regard to what its people want. Besides, I think the Saudi “people,” a very non-homogenous group of tribes, would be very sympathetic to an Islamist government in Egypt. On further reflection, I would imagine the Saudi monarchy is quite alarmed right now, as violent Islamist sentiment in their own country would probably bring down their house of cards very quickly.