The one outcome that will not happen in Egypt is democracy. I see a two-step senario: first, so-called secular forces, with the help of the feckless Obama administration, destroy the regime, replacing it with Mohammed El-Baradei or some such. I suspect that he will become the Shapour Bactiar of Egypt. The army is already indicating that it “stands with the people,” giving them rides on their tanks and refusing to enforce the curfew. Will they refuse to fire on demonstrators? If so, the regime better head for the airport. This is the final outcome of Obama’s advice for the government not to be respect the “people’s right to demonstrate,” in which case the demonstrators have license. Such an outcome will confirm “change” and be good for Obama’s re-elect numbers. Second, the Islamists will overthrow the new government, which — having no real allies left, except rhetorial support from Obama, is “weak” and not refecting the Islamic “popular mood.” It makes sense for the Muslim Brotherhood not to become visible now since the regime may defend itself, and any new government — reference Lenin and the Russian revolution and the Iranian revolution, where we were assured that “the people” of sophisticated Tehran just wanted “democracy” and not theocracy — will lack dependable support from the police and army of the old regime. On this basis, a Muslim Brotherhood government will come to the Arab world’s most populous nation. The “peace” treaty with Israel will be renounced in short order, and Egyptian troops will move into Gaza to support Hamas, carried in their Americam-supplied M-1 tanks. Will we even recognize what a disaster this is, or will Obama reassure us that what may “appear” to us to be radicalism is just the understandable reaction of an oppressed people to 30 years of dictatorship. Now when Hezbollah begin a war from Lebanon, Israel will have to wonder what Egypt — armed by America — is going to do.
