live in San Diego’s east county, which voted for Bush in 2004. I’d say it’s looking similarly this year, just as Orange County is to the north. That said, no one’s going to be foolish enough to predict McCain will win CA, so I find it equally interesting that the Obama campaign (and the media) believe strong GOP states like North Dakota, Montana and Virginia are in play. That is akin to McCain saying he can take CA, NY or Maryland. He cannot use such a weak analogy. Just because Obama can get 5-10,000 to attend a speech in Boise or Billings, or because he beat Hillary there, does not mean he can win the state. The big sky and Plains is reliably Republican.
After reading this piece, it’s interesting to note that most of the “swing” states are ones that Kerry won in 2004: Mich, Minne, Wisc, PA etc. I don’t understand where Obama is going to pick up the necessary 3-5 states to get 270 electoral votes—-unless he takes Ohio or Florida, which I doubt he will.
Very smooth, objective article
