william jonas
2007-04-02 19:57:31
A well reasoned analysis and explanation. To us in the west this seems so ridiculous it is almost theater.
But there is a strange odor about this affair that defies prediction. The Iranians do not want to release the hostages until they have tormented the British for as long and as successfully as they can. That seems to me to be the pivotal factor in the Iranian calculation. And they can easily make a misstep or an external event throws the process into chaos.
In all events there are little idiosyncrasies that seem unimportant at the beginning but as time moves on they become crucial. Time is the amplifier here and the longer this drags on the greater the possibility for a serious consequence to the eventual outcome.
