Boris,
When my doctor attended medical school, on the first day of school the Dean met with the new students in a seminar. He told them that all scientific inquiry needs to distinguish between PRECEDENCE and CAUSATION and to always keep this distinction in mind.
The Dean explained that if a rooster crows loudly every day before sunrise, and then the sun always rises, the rooster could presume that he CAUSED the sun to rise by his crowing.
Moral of the story – It is true that the rooster’s crowing PRECEDES the sun rising ever day, but it does not CAUSE it – not even one day.
Al Gore is one of the champion global warming client “roosters.” He crows a lot, but totally ignores the massive variables of sunspots, undersea volcanic activity, and other factors that precede mankind on the earth and precede S.U.V.’s – yet there are well-documented previous cycles of global warming that Al and his cohorts ignore because they disagree with his theory.
I’d take Al more seriously if his home didn’t consume 10 to 20 times more electricity than the home of the average American, or if he didn’t consume so much energy jet setting around crowing his one-sided story.
Your models ASSUME causation, like the rooster assumes the cosmic power of the rooster crowing crowing.
Your comments also suggest that you believe that a computer model is a substitute for common sense, or rigorous analysis and testing, or checking by other means outside of your assumptions or models.
Computer systems and models are known to give out outrageous readings on occasion which, if the human operators toss aside common sense and independent verification outside of the model, could produce disaster – even nuclear war.
Haven’t you ever heard of the flock of geese that were interpreted by trained radar operators as incoming missiles? Or the rising moon?
If not, check out –
http://www.russfound.org/Launch/webb.htm
